Kategori: Betting

A new football snowball

MartinBetting
A football snowball
A football snowball

Let us try to get a new football snowball rolling. I take at maximum one game each day and will pick out 40% of the profit after each bet. With this strategy the snowball will not accumulate as quickly as if you accumulate the complete win and only cash out money after a fixed number of bets (or some similar strategy). However, it is more safe in the sense that you will cash out some money each round.

Why do I like the snowball betting strategy? First of all, it is a possible way to have the opportunity to get a large win from a small initial wager.  Second, I really enjoy looking for bets that ’should not fail’. Odds value is of course important as always, but – for me – it is most important to survive each round and have fun as long as possibly. When doing snowballs with a strict plan you are way more likely to get some money out of it than doing a accumulator with many bets the very same day. Moreover, when doing accumulators it is very hard to get value in your bet since you need to take bets from the same bookie.

This is a football snowball. It is perhaps a better strategy to mix sports to get the best bet each day, but I restrict to football to narrow down the search for games. I ran a tennis snowball earlier.

Football snowball – day 1

My first bet is St Patrick’s Athletic to beat Drogheda United in the top league in Ireland. St Patrick top the league and I hope and think that they will start a winning streak after their win against Cork City last week. Before that they had a few games without a win but that was against rather tough opponents. Drogheda sit in eighth position in the league after way too many drawn games (10 in 21 games and 6 in 11 away games). Because of the number of drawn games for the away team I play it very safe today and only pick the Asian +0 line (draw no bet, DnB). Bet365 offers the best price (1.17) I’ve found for this bet. The price is perhaps too low for a starting bet, but – for me – the main task in snowball betting is not to lose and have fun as long as possible!

Game previews may be found here or at St Patrick’s home page.

Bet 1: 1 unit on St Patrick’s Athletic DnB at 1.17 (Bet365)

Result: 0-0 => Push. 1 unit to next day.

Football snowball – day 2

Drogheda managed to get 0-0 and another draw, which resulted in a push for my first bet. Thus, still 1 unit to be placed for day 2.

The pick today is taken from Lithuania(!) and is purely based on stats. FK Atlantas host FK Šiauliai and I cannot see the away team go home with any points here. Atlantas is one of the better teams in the league. Šiauliai have six consecutive losses. Their last win was against Tauras Taurage, who only have four points in eighteen games. Many bookies offer 1.40 for an Atlantas win and that is good for me. Let us get our football snowball rolling!

Bet 2: 1 unit on Atlantas to win at 1.40 (Unibet)

Result: 3-0 => +0.40 units. Cash out 0.16 units. 1.24 units to next day.

Total cash out: 0.16 units

Football snowball – day 3

Kopparberg/Göteborg FC (women) should be a better team than Piteå and they also defeated Piteå away with 2-0. After a sl0w start of the season Kopparberg got things together before the Euro break and I think they will continue with a win today. Bet365 offers 1.25 and that is good enough for me. Kopparberg HT/FT is also an interesting bet with good price from BetVictor (1.80).

Bet 3: 1.24 units on Kopparberg/Göteborg FC to win at 1.25 (Bet365)

Result: 1-0 => +0.31 units. Cash out 0.12 units. 1.43 units to next day.

Total cash out: 0.28 units

Football snowball – day 4

Djurgårdens IF play Helsingborgs IF today. Helsingborg have scored in 38(!) consecutive games in Allsvenskan and I think that they will score again today. MarathonBet offers Asian lines on team goals and I take Helsingborg over 1.0 goals.

Bet 4: 1.43 units on Helsingborg over 1.0 goals (Asian) at 1.32 (MarathonBet)

Result: 2-1 => push. 1.43 units to next day.

Total cash out: 0.28 units

Football snowball – day 5

My football snowball does not melt, but it rolls very very slowly. Only a push yesterday since Helsingborg only managed to score once. I am very happy with that though. Djurgården is my team.

Today I go back to Damallsvenskan. The difference between top and bottom is huge in this league and tomorrow LDB FC Malmö, second in the table with 24 points in 11 games (7-3-1) will play Sunnanå SK (0-3-8). The odds for a home win is around 1.03 and of course nothing to bet at. MarathonBet offers HT/FT at 1.24, which I think is good. Malmö should win this easily. Sunnanå struggle to get together a proper team. Read more here.

Bet 5: 1.43 units on Malmö HT/FT at 1.24 (MarathonBet)

Result: 1-0/4-0 => +0.34 units. Cash out 0.14 units. 1.63 units to next day.

Total cash out: 0.42 units

Football snowball – day 6

Time to level up with a bet with a slightly higher odds. Örebro SK seem to be the best team in Superettan. Today they face Jönköping Södra and I think that the prices for a home win are too high. The reason for the high prices is probably caused by the game in Jönköping where J. Södra won with 2-0. However, Örebro have 8-0-0 at home and I believe that they will continue winning today. Be aware that they have a newly placed artificial turf and Örebro. See Örebro’s homepage for Youtube interviews with players and coaches.

In Örebro William Atashkadeh is back in the squad. J. Södra have three new players on loan in the squad. Manager Mats Gren says that they might rotate their squad a bit now due to many games in short time.

Bet 6: 1.63 units on Örebro to win at 1.507 (Pinnacle Sports)

Result: 3-1 => +0.83 units. Cash out 0.34 units. 2.12 units to next day.

Total cash out: 0.76 units

Football snowball – day 7

Today I think that VfB Stuttgart should win at home to Botev Plovdiv. The game in Bulgaria finished 1-1 so the Germans really have to go for a win. Let us hope I am right here, my feeling wasn’t good after I placed the bet and perhaps I was too hasty. Some reasons for my bad feeling can be found here. Botev Plovdiv was the better side in Bulgaria. Top goalscorer Vedad Ibisevic is in doubt for Stuttgart. The game is not played in Stuttgart’s usual home ground Merceders-Benz Arena due to a Robbie Williams concert!

Bet 7: 2.12 units on VfB Stuttgart to win at 1.262 (Pinnacle Sports)

Result: 0-0 => meltdown. Extremely bad pick and I should of course have bought me out before the game. The bet did not feel right and in that case it is better to get out as quick as possible.

Total results: Seven bets with four winners and two pushes resulted in a total loss of 0.24 units.

Well, that was the last update of the post. I will come back with new football snowballs shortly.

Hammarby over?

MartinBetting

Örgryte IS will play Hammarby IF on Monday and I take two early bets on over 2.5 goals in total and Hammarby over 1.5 goals. Looking at the statistics this is just stupid. Hammarby hardly never play goal rich games (only two out of fifteen games have ended in over 2.5 goals!) and Örgryte also have problem to find the net (in 15 games they have scored 12 goals, conceded 24, and only 6 games have gone over 2.5 goals). However, Hammarby have replaced their former manager Gregg Berhalter with Thomas Dennerby and I think that this will influence the team heavily. Under Berhalter they underperformed and the players seemed non-happy on the pitch. Moreover, they have missed a lot of good opportunities and I hope that things will end differently on Monday.

Hammarby have some quality offensively, with Kennedy Bakircioglu as their star player. They have brought in two new strikers (Andreas Haddad, who has quality but have had a very injury-prone career, and Luke Rodgers, who is reported as a former bad-boy but I know nothing about him). It is time to deliver now for Hammarby and I have a feeling that they will end the season a lot better than they have done this far. I do believe that Dennerby will encourage the players to go forward, although he is perhaps not known as an attacking minded manager.

Bet365 offers 2.05 on over 2.5 goals in total and 2.20 on Hammarby over 1.5 goals and I put one unit on both bets (I use four units per game at maximum).

Usually I do not play over bets for single teams, but I believe that Hammarby will play offensively and this game could end 2-2. Therefore, I go for Hammarby over 1.5. My guess is 1-3 though.

Kennedy Bakircioglu
Will Kennedy Bakircioglu help Hammarby to go over 1.5 goals?

Quito – Quevedo

MartinBetting

Long time since I gave away a bet, but I think I have found a decent one.

Deportivo Quito host Quevedo in Ecuador and I think that the home team will win here. The two teams met recently and Quevedo won then. But in that game Quito got a player sent off when they were ahead. I watched parts of the game and Quito was a far better team.

Quevedo - Quito 4-3 after Quito player down.
Quevedo – Quito 4-3 after Quito a player down.

Apart from that lucky win, Quevedo has not won for seven games! Quito’s lasr result doesn’t impress at all (0-4 to Liga de Loja), but I hope that that match wake them up for the game tonight.

I take Quito -1 at Marathon (2.10) and a straight win at Betsafe (1.60).

Result:

The final score was 2-1 after a late Quito goal. Quito was the far better team and should have won more comfortably. One win and one void for me.

Great value in Molde FK goals

MartinBetting

Molde FK is one of the best teams in Tippeligaen in Norway (they have won the league the last two seasons), but have struggled so far this spring. They have started to find the net the last couple of games though and have had some descent results after their chock loss to Haugesund (1-5 at home):

Rosenborg 0 – 0 Molde (Molde red card minute 20)
Molde 4 – 0 Hønefoss
Hødd 1 – 1 Molde (cup game, 2-2 after extra time and Molde won after penalties)
Molde 6 – 0 Ranheim (cup game)
Vålerenga 3 – 3 Molde

They have lost Magnus Wolff Eikrem to Heerenveen recently but have a strong squad.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, head coach in Molde FK.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, head coach in Molde FK.

Today Molde FK hosts Sarpsborg 08, a team that usually fight to avoid relegation in Tippeligaen and is newly promoted. They have played very goal-rich games lately. In their last six league games they have scored eleven goals and conceded 18!

Sarpsborg 3 – 2 Sandnes
Tromsø 5 – 0 Sarpsborg
Rosenborg 4 – 2 Sarpsborg
Sarpsborg 3 – 3 Vålerenga
Brann 3 – 1 Sarpsborg 08
Sarpsborg 3 – 5 Strømsgodset (Friendly)
Sarpsborg 2 – 1 Start

Most bookies have very low prices for the over bets today (over 2.5 goals is priced around 1.45), but I have found two that have high odds for Molde goals. Betsafe offers 1.49 for over 1.5 Molde goals and 2.02 for Molde to score in both halves. Betsson offers 1.48 for Molde over 1.5 and 2.05 for home goals in both halves. As a comparision, Bet365 pays 1.35 for over 1.5 Molde goals and 1.80 for Molde to score in both halves.

I am confident that if this game ends with over 2.5 goals then Molde will score at least twice. Therefore I think there is better value in Molde FK over 1.5 at 1.49 than over 2,5 in the game at 1.45 (a bit higher odds and 2-0 is covered).

If you aren’t limited on Betsafe or Betsson I suggest over 1.5 goals and a small wager on goals in both halves. I will try to start a snowball with these bets.

Pre game information (in Norwegian) and interviews with Moldes head coach Ole Gunnar Solskjaer can be found on Molde FK’s home page.

Örebro – Ljungskile: Home win

MartinBetting

Örebro SK hosts Ljungskile SK on Wednesday and I take an early bet here. Ljungskile’s form is poor. They won against Örgryte in their last game, but Örgryte is really struggling at the moment and I do not value that win much. MarathonBet offers 1.79 for Örebro -1 and that is way too high I think.

Marathon doesn’t allow high stakes though. Allowed wager for me was a bit over 800 SEK.

Lindsdals IF & FC Rosengård today

MartinBetting

Two games in Division 2 Södra Götaland today and I think that the home team have advantage in both. I think Lindsdals IF have best value.

Lindsdals IF – Torns IF

Lindsdal is in great form and have four stratight victories. Their last loss was against Prespa Birlik away and that is probably one of the toughest game in this division. I have placed winning bets on Lindsdal lately and I hope to place another one today.

Torn is another team with great form. They also have four wins in five games, BUT their away record is not very impressive. They have won two and lost three away from home, but the wins have been against Karlskrona and Kvarnby, the two weakest home teams in the division.

I believe that Lindsdal should have a larger than 50% chance of winning tonight and place 1.5 units (of four) on the home win to 2.05 at Nordicbet.

FC Rosengård – BW 90 IF

I also believe that Rosengård has a good chance today against a struggling BW 90. Rosengård comes from a win after a bad spell and I hope that they have find better form now. The price for the home win has gone down from 2.00 during the day, but I still see some value in 1.90 and place 1 unit at Nordicbet.

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I’m on a short vacation now and will probably be gone for a few days. Good luck with your bets!

Ljungby and Oskarshamn

MartinBetting

Ljungby IF and Oskarshamns AIK top Division 2 Södra Götaland in Sweden and I think they will win again today. Bet365 offers good prices in both games and I’ll go for home victories. I sit in a car the moment and don’t have time to motivate further, but my bets today are:

Ljungby IF – FK Karlskrona: LIF win to 1.50 (Bet365). 2 units (of four)

Oskarshamns AIK – Hässleholms IF: OAIK win to 1.75 (Bet365). 1 unit.

I have also picked Roger Federer in my tennis snowball.

The tennis snowball

MartinBetting

My tennis snowball grows slowly but steadily and I have now cashed out the initial wager (or 0.972 percent of it). Today I go for Federer. Read here for all the details.

The snowball status at the moment.
The snowball status at the moment.