I’m stuck doing nothing. I should go and shave my face. My beard is longer than my hair at the moment. Or should I?
Författare: Martin
A football freak and mathematician. I write mostly about football, betting, and statistical analyses. Mix English and Swedish.
Ljungby and Oskarshamn
Ljungby IF and Oskarshamns AIK top Division 2 Södra Götaland in Sweden and I think they will win again today. Bet365 offers good prices in both games and I’ll go for home victories. I sit in a car the moment and don’t have time to motivate further, but my bets today are:
Ljungby IF – FK Karlskrona: LIF win to 1.50 (Bet365). 2 units (of four)
Oskarshamns AIK – Hässleholms IF: OAIK win to 1.75 (Bet365). 1 unit.
I have also picked Roger Federer in my tennis snowball.
The tennis snowball
My tennis snowball grows slowly but steadily and I have now cashed out the initial wager (or 0.972 percent of it). Today I go for Federer. Read here for all the details.
Årets bästa mejl…
… fick Robert Laul häromdagen. Det går ut på att Kim Källström och Rasmus Elm ägde mittfältet mot Österrike fram till att backlinjen föll alldeles för lågt. Jag kunde inte sagt det bättre själv!
Vidare tycker jag också att alla (och speciellt de etablerade) måste kunna ta tag i bollen och spela enkelt när Sverige väl tog tag i den. När man blir så tillbakapressade måste man hålla i bollen för att skapa lugn och flytta upp laget. Det misslyckades Zlatan, Kim, Elmander och så vidare med.
Vidare anser jag (på riktigt) att Ola Toivonen var en av de bättre mot Färöarna. Han var en perfekt länk, hade fina skarvar och skapade chanser. Hade han gjort mål och slarvat lite lite mindre hade han fått toppbetyg. Ser inte de som buar på läktaren och på Twitter allt bra han gör?
A tennis snowball
On June 9, 2013 I started a tennis snowball with one unit as initial wager. Unfortunately the initial wager was small and I need many days to get some good money from it. In the below image all my bets are summarised. Read below the image for the snowballing rules and the details each day!
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Let’s start a tennis snowball! I will only place bets on Pinnacle Sports this time. If you restrict yourself to one bookie Pinnacle is the one to use since they have the highest payout in general.
The idea is to go as follows. I will place a bet day 1 and continue by accumulating with a new bet in day 2. I will do the same for day 3, but after day 3 I will pick out 40% of the win from the last day. Continue as long as possible.
This time I will only place bets where I am very confident of a win. Therefore the odds on the placed bets will usually be very low and I need a nice run to be able to get some money out of it.
Day 1
Wager: 1 unit.
Bet: G. Dimitrov to win and M. Youzhny to win their respective games to accumulated odds 1.318.
Outcome: Dimitrov wins 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 (phew) & Youzhny wins 6-1, 6-2 (easy). +0.318 units!
Cash out: 0.008 units
Total cash out: 0.008 units
Wager to next day: 1.31 units
Day 2
Bet 1
Wager: 1.31 units.
Bet: Safarova to win against Karatantcheva to odds 1.166.
Outcome: Safarova wins 6-2, 7-6. +0.217 units.
Cash out: 0.007 units
Total cash out: 0.015 units
Wager to next bet: 1.52 units
Bet 2
Multiple bettors with good records have taken Benneteau to beat Mannarino today and since Pinnacle offers a very good price for a Benneteau win I take another bet today with higher price to level up until the cash-out levels.
Wager: 1.52 units.
Bet: Benneteau to win against Mannarino to odds 1.436.
Outcome: Benneteau wins (7-6, 6-3). +0.633 units.
Cash out: 0.003 units
Total cash out: 0.018 units
Wager to next day: 2.18 units
Day 3
Time for first cash out day if we survive! From today 40% of the profit each day will be cashed out.
I take a parlay with two of the tennis giants at the moment. I think and hope that both Federer and Berdych will win in straight sets today. They are both much better than their opponents and should win easily under normal circumstances. You could always argue that Federer is out of form, but it shouldn’t matter here. Berdych hasn’t played games for a while, but will hopefully be very prepared here.
Wager: 2.18 units.
Bet: Berdych and Federer to win their respective game in straight sets (2-0) to accumulated odds 1.726.
Outcome: Berdych wins 2-0 (6-1, 6-4) & Federer wins 2-0 (6-3, 6-3). +1.583 units.
Cash out: 0.633 units
Total cash out: 0.651 units
Wager to next day: 3.13 units
Day 4
From now on I will be a bit more careful and play a kind of home made handicap bet most days. I will take one game only and bet on a straight favourite win to cover for the wager and use the remaining units to bet on a 2-0 victory for the same favourite. With this strategy I try to keep the wager safe but will hopefully help the snowball to grow a bit faster, compared to take the complete wager on the straight win. Today I go for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has been good recently.
Wager: 3.13 units.
Bet: Tsonga to beat Roger-Vasselin (2.79 units at odds 1.125) and with 2-0 (0.34 units at odds 1.471).
Outcome: Tsonga wins, but with 2-1 (6-3, 6-7, 6-3). +0.009 units.
Cash out: 0.009 units
Total cash out: 0.660 units
Wager to next day: 3.13 units
Day 5
A push yesterday and only 3.13 units to spend today as well. I will mainly consider single games each day from now, but I take a double by placing the complete wager on Federer to beat Mischa Zverev in straight sets and Tsonga to beat Denis Kudla.
Pinnacle offered good prices (1.173 and 1.10) on these two bets but their web site messed with me as usual and the prices decreased significantly during the half an hour I tried to place my bet. However, this snowball is not much about finding value but more about surviving as long as possible, so I place the bet anyway. But: PINNACLE SPORTS, WHY IS YOUR WEB SITE SO SLOW? WHY DO I ALWAYS HAVE PROBLEMS TO GET TO YOUR SITE FOR PARLAYS/ACCUMULATORS? WHY DO I ALWAYS GET THE MESSAGE ’502 Bad Gateway’?
Wager: 3.13 units.
Bet: Tsonga to win (1.089) and Federer to win with 2-0 (1.148) to accumulated odds 1.250.
Outcome: Tsonga wins (6-3, 6-2) and Federer 2-0 (6-0, 6-0!). +0.783 units.
Cash out: 0.313 units.
Total cash out: 0.972 units
Wager to next day: 3.60 units
Day 6
I cashed out the initial wager now and level up again. T Haas has played good recently, but R Federer has impressed even more and should be big favourite today I think. I go for Federer to win for a small profit and Federer 2-0 for jackpot!
Bet: Federer to win against Haas (3 units at 1.294) and with 2-0 (0.6 units at 1.775).
Outcome: Federer wins by 2-1 (3-6, 6-3, 6-4). +0.222 units
Cash out: 0.112 units
Total cash out: 1.084 units
Wager to next day: 3.77 units
Day 7
Bet 1: John Isner to beat Evgeny Donskoy (3.4 units at 1.1).
Bet 2: Isner 2-0 & Marcos Baghdatis to beat Carlos Berlocq (0.34 units at accumulated odds 1.677).
Outcome: John Isner lost with 2-1 and the snowball melts down…
Cash out: 0
Total cash out: 1.084 units. Thus the initial wager is paid back.
Enfotad
Fru Berglund berättade ikväll att hon skjuter med vänster fot och är väldigt enfotad. Jag hade inte en aning och blev en aning förvånad eftersom hon är extremt högerhänt. Hon uppfattade min förvåning och förklarade:
Ja, jag måste ju stå på höger ben!
Skrattanfall…
Inget Stryktips för mig idag…
… men jag har lite tankar.
Jag funderade hela gårdagen att spela Lindsdal till 2.10 på Bet365 hemma mot Kvarnby. Avstod och ser nu att oddset är nere på 1.95. Hemmasegern har 54% av strecken på Stryktipset och jag har känsla för att det kan vara ett sunt spikförslag i eftermiddag.
Lindsdal var ett tippat topplag i Division 2 Södra Götaland men började svagt (vilket de tydligen också gjort tidigare säsonger). I de senaste omgångarna har de växlat upp och vann bland annat borta mot ett annat tippat topplag, Oskarshamns AIK.
Kvarnby å andra sidan blandar och ger och kommer från en inte alls lika meriterande 0-4-förlust mot Nike senast. Jag trodde att Lindsdal skulle vara större favoriter på Stryktipset och rekommenderar den raka ettan här på ett lite mindre system. Kvarnby har dock varit bättre borta än hemma så här långt i år…
Veckans största favorit är Dalkurd hemma mot IK Frej (80%). Troligen några procentenheter överstreckad, men rättmätiga favoriter är Dalkurd helt klart. Nog inte fel att spika ettan där.
Har sett att några spikar tvåan i matchen mellan Rosengård och Oskarshamn, men Rosengård är bra på hemmaplan och här rekommenderar jag alla tecken.
Lycka till i eftermiddag!
Titus Bramble surprises me
I read in Swedish here and in English here that Titus Bramble, himself a controversial character, openly criticise Paolo Di Canio’s man management abilities and I must say I am very surprised. Not by the claims as such – Paola Di Canio seems to be a strange man – but more that the claims are actually made.
Sunderland and other PL clubs are very sensitive to open critique and players usually praise their former managers despite obvious conflicts. The words from Bramble are quite harsh and I believe that the atmosphere in the dressing room must be very bad at the moment. Paolo Di Canio might be able to get success in the short run, but if he continues in this manner I don’t think he will manage teams in the top leagues for long.
By the way, I was very surprised when Sunderland appointed Di Canio. Didn’t they learn anything from what mentally insane Roy Keane did to the club?
