It is time for a rare comeback, a blog post about looking at the data with a betting purpose. The early Boxing Day game is a London derby between two teams that have impressed heavily so far. Chelsea currently top the table and they will face West Ham, who sit nicely in fourth position at the moment.
Chelsea at home
Chelsea FC have won almost everything this season and they look unbeatable, especially at Stamford Bridge. Now they will be tested a bit with a game against high-flying West Ham United. Here are some of the data in Chelsea’s home games so far in the 2014/2015 season of Premier League.
Chelsea have eight wins in eight home games and with a goal difference of two in six of them. With only three conceded goals a first guess could be that the opponents didn’t have much of the ball at all and that they haven’t been able to create any chances. This is not completely true. In four games the away teams have managed to create ten or more chances (I think that liveresultat.se mark all shots – on target/off target/blocked – as chances) and in two games the away teams (Arsenal and Tottenham) have had more possession of the ball than Chelsea. What is much more striking is the Shots on target column. The away teams have only had eleven shots on targets in the eight games, making an average of 1.375 shots on target per game! The ‘shoots on taget’-metric is actually used by many football scientists and data bloggers to model and predict football goal scoring results. Take a look at this very interesting blog.
Looking at Chelsea’s data alone a home win looks very possible and the prices are also low for a Chelsea victory. At the moment the bookies pay around 1.33 for the home win and around 2.00 for Chelsea at the -1.5 Asian Handicap line (at the moment Bet365 is best with 2.02).
West Ham away
West Ham have three wins, three drawn games, and two losses away from home so far in the 2014/2015 season. Moreover, they have scored (and conceded) in all eight games.
The wins have come against teams that are expected to finish in the lower regions of the table, the drawn games against teams expected to finish mid-table, and the losses against expected top six/seven-teams. Actually, West Ham have had extremely hard to get anything out of away games to elite teams lately. Last season West Ham only managed to beat Tottenham of the seven top clubs. They also got a 0-0 draw away to Chelsea, but according to the stats there seems to have been some luck involved there.
It is perhaps not fair to use stats from last season for West Ham. They seem to be another team now, but at the same time, the only losses this season have come to Manchester United and Everton. Is West Ham’s decent away record this season mostly thanks to the schedule? Will they start losing now when they will visit better teams?
Prediction: Chelsea and under
Despite West Ham’s fantastic start of the season I see value in Chelsea here. I don’t believe that Chelsea will allow West Ham to create high quality chances. I am a bit scared of the 1-0 and 2-1 victories however and I am taking the lower line, Chelsea -1 (AH) at 1.50.
West Ham’s stats away from home have affected the goal line prices. At the moment, under 3.0 goals (Asian line) can be taken at 1.88 and I take a small one on that. Chelsea have only scored more than three goals in one of the eight home games in Premier League and as long as West Ham doesn’t score, under 3.0 seems to posses value.
It could be a good idea to bet on 2-0 (Bet365 offers 7.50 at the moment and the prices differ between 5.30 and 8.00). I stick to Chelsea -1 and under 3.0 though.
Bet 1: Chelsea -1 at 1.50 (Pinnacle Sports). Medium wager.
Bet 2: Under 3.0 goals at 1.88 (Pinnacle Sports). Small wager.