After Christmas bets

I have had some time off during the Christmas holidays and therefore time to share a few bets. The analysis in Chelsea vs West Ham was a big success and I had quite a few readers on that post. On Twitter I have had weaker results. The over 2.75 bet in Wolves vs Brentford resulted in a half win, but Manchester City -2 (at home to Burnley) resulted in a disaster and over 2.75 in Tottenham – Manchester United could be seen as a fiasco after 0-0. However, United should have scored at least once in the first half, and if that had happened the game would probably opened up.

Well, it is time for a few new betting suggestions from England and Australia! Read and enjoy.

Bet 1: Derby County – Leeds United: Derby -1 at 1.92

Derby County have one of the stronger teams in the Championship and after a very disappointing away loss to tomorrow night’s opponents (in late November, Leeds got 2-0 at home and Derby failed to get a single shot on target). Since then, Derby have managed to get things together again. They have convincing wins at home to Brighton (3-0) and away to Birmingham on Boxing Day (4-0), an unfortunate 2-2 draw against Norwich, and a 2-0 defeat away to top contenders Middlesbrough.

Leeds United, on the other hand, have only managed to obtain one point in the four games after their win against Derby. With all the problems in and around the club I can’t see them get anything out of the game tomorrow night. Brazilian Adryan is believed to return to the starting eleven after been ruled out on boxing day.

I cannot see anything else than an easy home win here and have placed a -1 Asian Handicap bet on Derby. I got 1.92 at MarathonBet, but if you don’t have an account there (or perhaps is limited) I recommend 1.53 for the Derby -0.5 bet at Bet365 and/or 1.86 for a Derby -1 bet at Pinnacle Sports.

Bet 2: Ipswich Town – Charlton Athletic: Ipswich -1 at 2.10

Ipswich Town are doing extremely well at the moment. They sit second in the table and they are the best home team in the league (W8-D2-L1). They have four wins in their last five (including away to Charlton) and come from an impressive 4-2 win away to Brentford and a 2-0 victory at home to Middlesbrough.

Charlton Athletic are not bad. In their last game they got 1-1 at home to Cardiff, despite being one man down for about an hour. Away from home they have drawn six of eleven games (W2-D6-L3), and are hard to beat. However, the Ipswich team is showing a lot of character and I am going for the tough -1 Asian Handicap line. Read a preview here.

I got 2.10 from MarathonBet for the Asian Handicap -1 bet. You can get 1.60 for the straight home win at Bet365 and 2.02 for the -1 line. I believe that this offer some value.

Bet 3: Western Sydney Wanderers – Central Coast Mariners: Sydney -0.75 at 2.27

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Tomi Juric

During the Christmas holidays I have watched some football from Australia. Western Sydney Wanderers have not been able to combine the Asian Champions League (who they surprisingly won!), the FIFA Club World Cup and league football. Now they have time to focus on the league and they really need to start winning games after only three points in ten games. I saw their last loss away to Wellington Phoenix (1-0), and in that game they played well and were extremely unlucky to get nothing out (read and watch highlights here). Now they face a much weaker team and I believe that they will start a winning streak. It could be worthy checking the starting line ups. Star striker Tomi Juric is reported to leave the club, and he is important for Western Sydney.

Central Coast Mariners have eight points in twelve games (W1-D5-L6) and away from home they have four drawn games and two losses in six games. In their last encounter they got a 3-3 draw at home to Brisbane Roar and did not impress defensively. I believe that they hold much less quality than Sydney Wanderers and that the price is too much influenced by Sydney’s awful league stats.

I have taken Sydney -0.75 at 2.27 (Pinnacle Sports). The current price is 2.30 and other bookies offer prices around 2.20-2.25.

Bet 4: West Ham United – West Bromwich Albion: West Ham -0.75 at 2.14

West Ham United are doing extremely well and after two tough games against Chelsea and Arsenal I strongly believe that will get a victory again against a rather weak West Bromwich Albion.

I got 2.14 for the -0.75 Asian Handicap bet (Pinnacle Sports). The current price is 2.11 and I think that prices above 2.05 are worth to take.

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Chelsea – West Ham: Betting with a look at the data

It is time for a rare comeback, a blog post about looking at the data with a betting purpose. The early Boxing Day game is a London derby between two teams that have impressed heavily so far. Chelsea currently top the table and they will face West Ham, who sit nicely in fourth position at the moment.

Chelsea at home

Chelsea FC have won almost everything this season and they look unbeatable, especially at Stamford Bridge. Now they will be tested a bit with a game against high-flying West Ham United. Here are some of the data in Chelsea’s home games so far in the 2014/2015 season of Premier League.

Data from Chelsea’s home games so far in Premier League. Data are taken from liveresultat.se.

Chelsea have eight wins in eight home games and with a goal difference of two in six of them. With only three conceded goals a first guess could be that the opponents didn’t have much of the ball at all and that they haven’t been able to create any chances. This is not completely true. In four games the away teams have managed to create ten or more chances (I think that liveresultat.se mark all shots – on target/off target/blocked – as chances) and in two games the away teams (Arsenal and Tottenham) have had more possession of the ball than Chelsea. What is much more striking is the Shots on target column. The away teams have only had eleven shots on targets in the eight games, making an average of 1.375 shots on target per game! The ‘shoots on taget’-metric is actually used by many football scientists and data bloggers to model and predict football goal scoring results. Take a look at this very interesting blog.

Looking at Chelsea’s data alone a home win looks very possible and the prices are also low for a Chelsea victory. At the moment the bookies pay around 1.33 for the home win and around 2.00 for Chelsea at the -1.5 Asian Handicap line (at the moment Bet365 is best with 2.02).

West Ham away

West Ham have three wins, three drawn games, and two losses away from home so far in the 2014/2015 season. Moreover, they have scored (and conceded) in all eight games.

westham_away_2014_12_26The wins have come against teams that are expected to finish in the lower regions of the table, the drawn games against teams expected to finish mid-table, and the losses against expected top six/seven-teams. Actually, West Ham have had extremely hard to get anything out of away games to elite teams lately. Last season West Ham only managed to beat Tottenham of the seven top clubs. They also got a 0-0 draw away to Chelsea, but according to the stats there seems to have been some luck involved there.

westham_away_2013_2014It is perhaps not fair to use stats from last season for West Ham. They seem to be another team now, but at the same time, the only losses this season have come to Manchester United and Everton. Is West Ham’s decent away record this season mostly thanks to the schedule? Will they start losing now when they will visit better teams?

Prediction: Chelsea and under

Despite West Ham’s fantastic start of the season I see value in Chelsea here. I don’t believe that Chelsea will allow West Ham to create high quality chances. I am a bit scared of the 1-0 and 2-1 victories however and I am taking the lower line, Chelsea -1 (AH) at 1.50.

West Ham’s stats away from home have affected the goal line prices. At the moment, under 3.0 goals (Asian line) can be taken at 1.88 and I take a small one on that. Chelsea have only scored more than three goals in one of the eight home games in Premier League and as long as West Ham doesn’t score, under 3.0 seems to posses value.

It could be a good idea to bet on 2-0 (Bet365 offers 7.50 at the moment and the prices differ between 5.30 and 8.00). I stick to Chelsea -1 and under 3.0 though.

Bet 1: Chelsea -1 at 1.50 (Pinnacle Sports). Medium wager.

Bet 2: Under 3.0 goals at 1.88 (Pinnacle Sports). Small wager.

Let’s hope that John Terry can help us to get 2-0 (or otherwise 1-0 or 3-0) for Chelsea.

 

A novel sports betting dictionary

I have started to create a sports betting dictionary where my aim is to explain sports betting terms in a few words. Some are accompanied with longer explanations (but never exceeding 500 words) in separate posts.

I haven’t come far yet, but I have at least explained some terms, including Asian handicaps, parlays, and void bets. My aim is to update the list with a lot more when time persists.

If you have any suggestions for words/phrases/terms to add, feel free to comment below. Also, if you discover any errors or bad explanations you are more than welcome to let me know.

For now, enjoy my dictionary here.

sports_betting_dictionary_children_play
Something to bet on?

World Cup Doubles

If you bet small (as I usually do) Comeon offers a fine bonus where a 100 SEK (Swedish Krona) deposit becomes 500 SEK playable money as long as you turn over your 500 SEK eight times on doubles with accumulated odds at least 2.0. I took the opportunity to play small doubles almost for free during the World Cup.

During the early game today I played doubles with the following (Asian Handicap) bets:

Costa Rica – Greece: Costa Rica +0 at 1.86. Result: 1-1. Push.
France – Nigeria: France -1 at 1.75. Result: 2-0. Win.
Argentina – Switzerland: Argentina -1 at 1.84. Result: 0-0. Loss.
Belgium – USA: Belgium -0.25 at 1.65. Result: 0-0. Half loss.
Brazil – Colombia: Colombia +1 at 1.53. Result: 2-1. Push.

Hence, 10 doubles has been played (25 SEK each) and I hope I will get at least three of the games in. All doubles are:

Costa Rica +0 & France -1 at 3.26. Result: +18.75 SEK.
Costa Rica +0 & Argentina -1 at 3.42. Result: -25 SEK.
Costa Rica +0 & Belgium -0.25 at 3.07. Result: -12.50 SEK.
Costa Rica +0 & Colombia +1 at 2.85. Result: +-0 SEK.
France -1 & Argentina -1 at 3.22. Result: -25 SEK.
France -1 & Belgium -0.25 at 2.89. Result: -3.13 SEK.
France -1 & Colombia +1 at 2.68. Result: +18.75 SEK.
Argentina -1 & Belgium -0.25 at 3.04. Result: -25 SEK.
Argentina -1 & Colombia +1 at 2.82. Result: -25 SEK.
Belgium -0.25 & Colombia +1 at 2.52. Result: -12.50 SEK.

TOTAL RESULTS: -90.63 SEK…

Quick thoughts:

  • Costa Rica have been better than Greece so far and I do not think that Greece will win during full time. A draw no bet price of 1.86 for Costa Rica is fine.
  • France are one of the best teams so far and I believe that they are too good for Nigeria.
  • Argentina have not impressed very much, but they have a much stronger team than Switzerland and I expect that Messi will show his qualities.
  • Belgium should be a lot better than USA and the prices are good in my opinion. I am a bit scared of the draw though and take Belgium -0.25.
  • Colombia have been much better than Brazil so far and, despite the home advantage for Brazil, I believe that Colombia should be slight favourites. I play it a bit safe and take Colombia +1 though.
Will James Rodriquez continue with his brilliant game? Photo from goal.com.
Will James Rodriquez continue with his brilliant game? Photo from goal.com.

Damallsvenskan: Bets from the opening round

It has been a while since I placed bets on the blog (I haven’t placed many bets at all recently to be honest). But now (or April 13, 2014) it is time for Damallsvenskan (the first football league for women in Sweden) and I think I have found bets with decent value.

Damallsvenskan: Jitex – Umeå

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Emma Berglund

Jitex have done very well against former Damallsvenskan giants Umeå IK the last two seasons. However, for the 2014 season the team has been completely rebuilt and the squad consists of young players from lower league clubs. The new players are talented but probably not yet ready for the biggest scene in Sweden. At least not early in the season. Canadian international Emily Zurrer provides some class and experience, but it should not be enough.

Umeå finished fifth in the table last season and are believed to fight just below the best teams also this season. Swedish international and team captain Emma Berglund is back in the team after a heavy knee injury.

UNIBET provides the best prices for Umeå at the moment and I take two bets.

Bet 1: Jitex – Umeå: Umeå -1 (European Handicap, i.e. threeway handicap) at 1.65. 1.5 unit.

Bet 2: Jitex – Umeå: Umeå -2 (European Handicap, i.e. threeway handicap) at 2.65. 0.5 unit.

Result: 0-1, -2 units

Observe: I only place bets with one unit (good value) or two units (very good value) at stake. Hence, I see very good value in Umeå at Unibet’s prices.

Update: Bet365 opened with 1.20 for the straight Umeå win (compared to 1.11-1.15 for the other bookies). Check out for handicap prices from Bet365!

Damallsvenskan: Kristianstad – Tyresö

The situation in Tyresö is awful and the economical situation in the club is critical. Plenty of players will leave in the summer, but so far the quality in the squad is world class and probably the best in Damallsvenskan. I can’t see them losing points to Kristianstad despite the chaotic situation and the fact that Caroline Seger and Marta seem to be injured.

Tyresö will play Birmingham in Champions League six days after the encounter to Kristianstad and this game should be a good preparation game.

Bet 3: Kristianstad – Tyresö: Tyresö win at 1.50. 0.5 unit.

Bet 4: Kristianstad – Tyresö: Tyresö -1 (European Handicap, i.e. threeway handicap) at 2.45. 0.5 unit.

Result: 2-0, -1 unit

Unibet’s provides the best prices also for Tyresö! I stick to one unit in total due to the situation in Tyresö.

Damallsvenskan: Vittsjö – Kopparbergs/Göteborg

stefan_rehn_1994_damallsvenskan
Stefan Rehn – Superstar!

Vittsjö have had problems with injuries during pre-season and at least Emma Sjödahl is out for long. With their thin squad they should suffer with every injury.

I think that Kopparbergs/Göteborg FC have some interesting new signings, among them Annica Sjölund, Manon Melis, and new manager Stefan Rehn.

Since the injury situation should damage Vittsjö I believe that 1.85 is good for Göteborg. Again at Unibet.

Bet 5: Vittsjö – Kopparbergs/Göteborg: Göteborg win at 1.85. 1 unit.

Result: 0-5, +0.85 units

Update: Bet365 opened with 1.91 for Kopparbergs/Göteborg!

I will try to have time to continue to follow Damallsvenskan and perhaps give bets every now and then.

December snowball – 100 SEK

December is here and it is time for another snowball. I will start with 100 SEK (Swedish krona) and accumulate my first two bets. After that I take out 50% of the win after each bet. All bets will be placed at Pinnacle Sports and most picks will be purely based on statistics.

As usual my main goal is to survive as long as possible and I pick games on a ”cannot miss”-basis (which of course isn’t the case) and most bets will be placed with low odds.

Bet 1 – Sunday 1 Dec – 100 SEK

Bet: Servette Geneve – FC Wohlen: Home win to 1.367.

Result: 1-0. 36.70 win.

I cash out 0.70 (0%) and take 136 SEK to the next bet.

Total cashed out: 0.70 SEK

Bet 2 – Tuesday 3 Dec – 136 SEK

Bet: Gornik Zabrze – Widzew Lodz: over 2.0 goals to 1.377.

Result: 3-2. 51.27 win.

I cash out 0.27 (0%) and take 187 SEK to the next bet.

Bet 3 – Wednesday 4 Dec – 187 SEK

Bet: Arsenal – Hull: Arsenal -1 to 1.377.

Result: 2-0. 70.69 win.

I cash out 35.69 (50%) and take 222 SEK to the next bet.

Bet 4 – Friday 6 Dec – 222 SEK

Bet: Home wins in Galatasaray – Elazigspor & Benfica – Arouca to joint odds 1.43.

Result: Galatasaray 2-0, but Benfica only got 2-2 and the snowball melted way too early.

————

Total result: -64.31 SEK (Swedish kronor)

Euro bets

Europa league is hard to predict but I give it a chance today with three bets. I have placed 2 units in all of them (I have 4 units as max in a game) and my bets are:

AZ Alkmaar – Shakhtar Karagandy: AZ to win both halves to 2.62 at MarathonBet

Dagens Bästa Spel believes that 2.25 has value and when Marathon offers 2.62 I must take it. Karagandy leaves players at home to this game!

RESULT: 0-0 in HT, despite 11-1 in chances… -2 units

alkmaar_ht

APOEL – Bordeaux: Bordeaux +0 (played as DnB) to 1.74 at Nordicbet

APOEL does not impress and Bordeaux has done better lately. Bordeaux should be the better team and 1.74 for draw-no-bet is good.

RESULT: 2-1, -2 units

St Gallen – Valencia: Valencia -0.25 to 1.80 at Pinnacle Sports

The exact same motivation as above…

RESULT: 2-3, +1.60 units

FC Basel tonight?

FC Basel have a very strong team and have done well in Europe and in the league the last couple of seasons. They have only lost once this season (at home to Zurich) and impressed fc basel - allez allezheavily with a win away to Chelsea in the opening game of the Champions League group stage. For me they should be favourites against an ever underperforming Schalke 04 and when we get 2.07 for Basel +0 (equivalent to draw no bet, DnB) I think we have great value.

There are no big injury worries in Basel. Fabian Schär hurt his knee on Saturday, but trained yesterday and will be tested late tonight. Basel’s coach Murat Yakin says that his attacking players are in great form, but some of them have picked up small knocks and he might rest someone to this game.

Schalke 04 is a big club with great resources but they constantly underperform in the German Bundesliga. They concede far too many goals to be able to compete with the best teams. They have a rather good record in Europe, but to this game I think they should be the underdogs. Their coach Jens Keller also admits that FC Basel should be the favourites in this game.

There are a few important players unavailable for Schalke 04. Star attacking midfielder Julian Draxler was missed out during the weekend but will probably be available. However, Christian Fuchs, Kyriakos Papadopoulos, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, and Chinedu Obasi are all still injured and Jermaine Jones will not be picked.

Both teams usually score in their games and this could end 3-2 or something similar. I add a bet on over 2.75 goals in the game.

Bet 1: FC Basel – Schalke 04: Basel +0 at 2.07 (Pinnacle Sports). 1.5 units (max 4 units per game)

Bet 2: FC Basel – Schalke 04: Over 2.75 goals at 2.09 (Pinnacle Sports). 1 unit.

RESULT: 0-1, -2.5 units…