Bets from Spain

Three games will be played in Primera Division in Spain tonight and I have placed bets in two of them.

Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano

Sevilla have struggled in the opening games of the league.  With two points in five games they are placed bottom in the league. I have seen two of their games and I must say that they have been a bit unlucky, especially against Barcelona where Barca got their winner in the very last seconds of the game. Sevilla should have much more quality than Rayo Vallecano and I believe that they will win tonight.

Rayo Vallecano try to play offensive regardless whom they play. I believe that we will see goals tonight and place an over bet and one bet on a home win.

Bet 1: Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano: Sevilla -1.25 (Asian handicap) @1.847 (Pinnacle Sports). 1.5 units (max four per game).

Bet 2: Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano: Over 3.0 goals (Asian line) @1.847 (Pinnacle Sports). 1 unit.

RESULT: 4-1, +2.12 units

Elche – Real Madrid

Elche did very well last season and qualified to Primera Division after a lot of 1-0 and 2-0 victories. To this season they seem to have weaken the squad and should not have a chance against Real Madrid. Real play an important derby game against Atletico and will probably rest a few players. However, the quality in the squad should be good enough to defeat Elche with a couple of goals. I see value in the prices and place two units on Real Madrid -1.25.

It could be a good strategy to wait for the starting elevens. If Real rest their star players the price for the away win might increase.

Bet 3: Elche – Real Madrid: Real -1.25 (Asian line) @1.719 (Pinnacle Sports). 2 units.

RESULT: 1-2, -1.00 unit.

Good luck if you place bets tonight!

The snowball – Continuation

Weeks ago I started a snowball just for fun. I took in-play bets on Bet365 and got wins every time. After a while, despite the very small initial wager, the snowball became rather big and now (September 22, 2013) I have survived 21 bets! I have written out the bets here, but continue with this new post now to ease the reading. The bets will be filled below, but let us first present the bets so far. Three bookies have been used. I will continue choosing bets from these three.

The status of the snowball before the bet on September 22. The new bets are presented below.
The status of the snowball before the bet on September 22. The new bets are presented below.

After each win I will cash out 60% of the win and add the rest to the ever increasing wager.

Snowball bet 22 – September 22 – Red Bull Salzburg

The snowball is big now and it is hard to place the bet on one bookie. Today I take Red Bull Salzburg. The main bet is placed on Salzburg -1 (Asian), but a smaller part is also placed on the straight win (or rather, the -0.5 bet).

Bet 1: Red Bull Salzburg – Wolfsberger FC: Salzburg -1 @1.26 (MarathonBet). 11.20 units

Bet 2: Red Bull Salzburg – Wolfsberger FC: Salzburg -0.5 @1.18 (Bet365) 4.01 units

Result: 2-2. Salzburg were 2-0 up and totally on top of Wolfsberger but managed to concede twice. Snowball melts…

Total cashed out: 20.99 times the initial wager

A running snowball – Leyton Orient next

A few good and a few bad picks in my blogging-with-bets comeback yesterday. Importantly, Standard Liege did what they should and won easily. Therefore, my snowball is starting to grow really big. Leyton Orient FCNext up is Leyton Orient FC, and if they do their job on Tuesday I will continue to update this blog post with my next bets in the snowball until it melts.

The reason for making an already-started-snowball public is for my own sake. I believe I will do my research better and only take bets that I have really thought about if I publish them here. (But I guess that I will lose immediately now when I am going public.)

The rules are as usual when I play snowballs, money is cashed out after each round.

Below are a piece of the Excel sheet I use for the snowball. This picture will be updated after each winning bet.

The new picks are updated below. I will usually not motivate my picks.

The status of the snowball before the bet on September 22. The new posts will be presented in a new post, see below.
The status of the snowball before the bet on September 22. The new bets will be presented in a new post, see below.

17 September – Leyton Orient

8.69 units to place.

Leyton Orient – Notts County: Leyton Orient DnB @1.28 (Bet365). 5 units.

Leyton Orient – Notts County: Leyton Orient over 1.5 goals @1.90 (MarathonBet). 3.69 units.

Here I create my own home made kind of handicap bet on Leyton Orient. I really like 1.90 for Leyton Orient over 1.5 goals at MarathonBet but unfortunately I can’t play big on that bookie for this game. I play it a bit safe with 5 units on the Draw no Bet (DnB) option on Leyton Orient to survive even if this ends 0-0 or 1-1.

I do not think I will get 1.28 for Leyton Orient DnB or 1.90 for over 1.5 goals on Tuesday and place an early bet.

RESULT: 5-1, +4.72 units. 3.301 units are cashed out (70% of win) and 10.11 units are available for next bet.

18 September – Barcelona goals

Leyton orient did well last night. Today I go for goals in Barcelona vs Ajax. There is probably not much value in the bet, but I am confident that Barcelona will score at least two goals (probably more) and take Barcelona over 2.0 goals for half the wager. The other half is placed on over 1.0 goals in first half (for both teams). My bets are

Barcelona – Ajax: Barcelona over 2.0 goals (Asian line) @1.222 (MarathonBet). 5 units.

Barcelona – Ajax: Over 1.0 goals first half (Asian line) @1.26 (MarathonBet). 5.11 units.

RESULT: 4-0 (1-0) => Win on Barcelona over 2.0 goals, push on over 1.0 goals first half. 0.670 units are cashed out (60% of win) and 10.55 units available for next bet.

19 September – Fiorentina

Fiorentia – Pacos Ferreira: Home win @1.33 (Bet365). 10.55 units.

RESULT: 3-0 => +3.48 units. 2.092 units are cashed out (60% of win) and 11.94 units are available for next bet.

21 September – Barcelona

Tonight I take Barcelona. I will perhaps add an in-play bet on Atletico Madrid later (if Barcelona win).

Vallecano – Barcelona: Away win @1.20 (Bet365). 11.94 units.

RESULT: 0-4 => +2.39 units. 1.438 units are cashed out (60% of win) and 12.89 units are available for next bet.

I take another bet tonight.

Rayo Vallecano – Atletico Madrid: Atletico -0.25 (Asian) @1.45 (Bet365). 12.89 units.

RESULT: 0-2 => +5.80 units. 3.481 are cashed out (60% of win) and 15.21 units are available for next bet.


I will continue presenting my bets in a new post.

Two bets today

It is certainly time to post bets again. Yesterday I posted a few on Twitter with good results. At the moment I have placed two bets today, this post might be updated later.

Sunday bet 1

Hoffenheim vs B Mönchengladbach over 3.0 goals (Asian) at 2.24 (Pinnacle Sports)

Both teams have played four league games this season and all eight games have ended with over 2.5 goals. Seven of the eight games have ended in over 3.5 goals. Looking at these statistics alone I believe that 2.24 is very good for the over 3.0 bet.

I spend two units (of four) on over 3 goals.

RESULT: 2-1, which means a push. +0 units.

Sunday bet 2

Oostende vs Standard Liege DnB 2 at 1.28 (Bet365)

I see great value in Standard Liege today. The straight bet is priced around 1.60 to 1.65 and I like that a lot. I take the DnB options for a running snowball however. My philosophy in running accumulators (snowballs) is that the most important thing is to survive each round. I cannot see St. Liege losing today.

They have six wins in six league game, scoring twelve goals and conceding none! They have done well in Europe as well.  Today they will play Oostende with only two points so far in the league.

I spend 7.82 (snowballing) units on St. Liege DnB.

RESULT: 2-4 and +2.19 units! 1.32 units (60 % of the win) are cashed out and in tomorrow’s bet 8.69 units will be placed.

The snowball bets so far
The snowball bets so far

UPDATE: Three additional bets without any motivation:

Sunday bet 3

Criciuma – Internacional over 2.5 goals in total @1.952 (Pinnacle Sports). 1 unit (of max 4)

RESULT: 0-1, -1 unit.

Sunday bet 4

Everon de Vina – Universidad de Chile: UdC over 1.5 goals @1.70 (MarathonBet). 1.5 units (of max 4)

RESULT: 2-1, -1.5 units. I watched this game and it was unbelievable that Universidad didn’t score twice. Unfortunately missed chances is common in Chile…

Sunday bet(s) 5

Vitoria BA – Nautico: Home win @1.74 (Pinnacle Sports). 0.5 units

Vitoria BA – Nautico: Vitoria over 1.5 goals @1.90 (MarathonBet). 0.5 units

RESULT: 2-1, +0.82 units.

SnowballOpen 3.0

Two hours to deadline for SnowballOpen 3.0. Please join! The more the merrier.

SnowballOpen Bet 1:

snowballopen_1My first bet is Maribor (-1, Asian) away to Triglav at 1.375 at bet365. Initial wager is 100 SEK. There should be very large differences between the two teams and I believe that 1.375 is a good price for -1. If it wasn’t for the snowball I would consider -1.5 here. Now I stick to the snowball bet.

Bet 1: Maribor -1 @1.375 (bet365). 100 SEK.


SnowballOpen Bet 2:

snowballopen_2Maribor only managed a 1-0 win which means a push after day one. Thus, still 100 SEK to place. I continue with an Asian handicap bet at bet365. Paris Saint-Germain have started the season with two draws and really need a win away to newly promoted FC Nantes. I watched parts of PSG’s last game at home to Ajaccio and they should have scored at least three considering the chances they had. I believe that they will score against Nantes instead. I was going to take PSG -0.75 to a slightly higher price earlier, but didn’t have the time then. There is still value though.

I also considered Manchester City against Cardiff City for my snowball, but decided to go for PSG. I take a bet on Man City as well though, I spend two units (of four) on Man City (-1) at 1.763 (Pinnacle Sports).

Bet 2: PSG -0.75 @1.70 (bet365). 100 SEK.


SnowballOpen Bet 3:

snowballopen_3I got a half win yesterday and at least this got the snowball rolling. Today I have struggled to find a good bet and decided to take one from Iceland. UMF Stjarnan host ÍA Akranes and looking at the stats this should end with a home win. Pinnacle Sports offers 1.386 for Stjarnan and I believe that this has some value.

Stjarnan are placed third in the Icelandic top division (W9-D4-L2, 24-15 in total and 6-1-1, 15-9 at home) and Akranes sit rock bottom with 2-2-12, 21-40 in total and 0-1-7, 8-20 away from home. Stjarnan have had a rather bad spell recently but won in their last game and have a great opportunity to continue with a win against Akranes.

Bet 3: UMF Stjarnan @1.386 (Pinnacle Sports). 135 SEK.


SnowballOpen Bet 4:

UMF Stjarnan managed to win (1-0) but it was hard to follow the game on my livescore since Akranes seemed to create chances and Stjarnan played with ten men the last twenty minutes after former Stabæk striker Veigar Páll Gunnarsson got his second yellow card in the game. I continue SnowballOpen 3.0 by looking for games with rather low odds and take LdB Malmö (women) to beat Linköpings FC for round four.

snowballopen_4Malmö is probably the best team in Damallsvenskan at the moment. They have an impressive run with five wins and one draw in their last six games. They have beaten Sunnanå and Kopparberg/Göteborg twice and Tyresö once (despite being 1-2 down and only ten players on the pitch). The drawn game came against Tyresö. With offensive players like Bachmann, Mittag, Melis, and Sjögran (to mention a few) I cannot see them dropping a point at home to Linköping.

However, be aware that Malmö’s last loss was against Linköping, but that game was played away and Linköpings FC have performed much better at home than away from home. Moreover, Swedish international Nilla Fischer has now leaved the club and joined Wolfsburg in Germany and important goalkeeper Sofia Lundgren is out injured.

At first I planned to wait for the handicap market to open up for this game, but have decided to go for the straight home win. Unibet pays best at the moment and 1.32 is good enough for me.

Bet 4: LdB Malmö @1.32 (Unibet). 182.11 SEK.


SnowballOpen Bet 5:

LdB Malmö won very convincingly and I’m still a part of SnowballOpen 3.0! There are only twelve persons left and I am placed at position twelve…

Today I go for a bet with higher odds though since I take a -1.5 handicap bet. It is placed on IFK Norrköping who travel to Vimmerby for a game in the Swedish Cup. Vimmerby play in Divison 2 Södra Svealand and should, under normal circumstances, not have any chances against Norrköping. snowballopen_5Vimmerby started the season very well, but have struggled lately and have lost more games than they have won now (W6-D2-L7, 19-24 in goals). Today Rikard Turesson and Lansana Kamara are doubtful and talented defender Johan Lundin is suspended after being sent off in Vimmerby’s impressive win against Huskvarna in the first round. Niklas Nilsson and Daniel Ek are injured

IFK Norrköping will travel with a strong squad and should be too good if they put enough effort into the game. Manager Janne Andersson says that the game is important and I do not think he will tolerate anything else than a win. I gamble a bit and take the -1.5 bet to catch up a bit with the other contenders in  SnowballOpen 3.0.

Read more about the game on Vimmerby’s home page, on IFK Norrköping’s home page, and in much dept on Svenska Fans.

Bet 5: IFK Norrköping -1.5 @1.72 (MarathonBet). 246.04 SEK.


SnowballOpen Bet 6:

Easy win for IFK Norrköping yesterday and I am still alive! Perhaps I should go for a price to catch up even more, but I decided that the most important thing is to survive each day and therefore I go for a bet with high probability (hence low odds).

snowballopen_6Tomorrow there is a big derby in Dublin and I strongly believe that St. Patrick Athletic Football Club should be big favourites against Behemian Football Club and pick St. Patricks -1 @1.50, which I think is a bit too high. I’m too tired to motivate my pick this time, but you can read more about the game on St. Patrick’s and Bohemian’s webpages. Especially observe that Dave Mulcahy is suspended for Bohemians.

Bet 6: St. Patricks -1.0 @1.50 (MarathonBet). 423.19 SEK.

I AM OUT! St. Patricks had 1-0 and a goal disallowed just before Bohemians equaliser (my two opened livescores had 2-0 and later 2-1 for a while…). It was great fun this but I simply took the wrong bet today. Should have taken Helsingborg.

BK Häcken and Halmstads BK tomorrow

Tomorrow the second round of the Swedish Cup takes place with plenty of games to consider. I think I have found a double with great value with wins for two teams from Allsvenskan (BK Häcken and Halmstads BK) against teams in lower leagues.

The first game is Nyköpings BIS at home to BK Häcken. Häcken travel to Nyköping with a strong squad and I think they want to/have a great chance to win after a bad spell in Allsvenskan. Bwin, Bet365, and Unibet pays 1.40 for a BK Häcken win and I think that this is good. BetVictor is highest with 1.44. Nyköping is not a bad team, they are currently third in Division 1 Norra with a good chance to promote to Superettan and they have got a few new signings recently. But, Häcken should be a top team in Allsvenskan and they should be far better than ”Bissarna”. More about the game on BK Häcken’s homepage.

I double up with Halmstads BK away to Ljungby IF. Ljungby is ”my home team” and play in Division 2 Södra Götaland. After a good start before the summer break they have been awful recently and Halmstad should win this 19 times of 20. Bwin offers 1.25 for HBK and I place my bet there. Read more about the game at Halmstad’s home page.

Bet: BK Häcken to win (1.40) and Halmstads BK to win (1.25) to accumulated odds 1.75 at Bwin.
Wager: 2 units (of 4) are risked.

BK Häcken supporter(s)
BK Häcken supporter(s)

Marseille goals this season?

Olympique de Marseille finished second in Ligue 1 last season and will try to fight for the title together with PSG and perhaps Monaco and Lyon this season. They started well with a 3-1 win at home to EA Guingamp, but all the Marseille goals came early and – more importantly – they played very sloppy in the defence. They discussed this in Eurotalk and both Thomas Wilbacher and Kalle Karlsson agreed on that their defence leaked extremely and that talented and highly valued defender Nicolas N’Koulou was a catastrophe. Listen below (around 1:50:00).

Marseille have a strong offensive squad with players like Gignac, the Ayew brothers, Valbuena, and new signing Payet.

Giannelli Imbula

Moreover, the powerful defensive midfielder Imbula from Guingamp seems to be a very good signing. He was the best player in the second division last season and was linked with Arsenal earlier this summer.

Marseille were not involved in many goal-rich battles last season but there might be more Marseille goals from now on. I certainly hope so since I place early bets on over 2.5 goals in Marseille’s next three games. Due to the statistics from the last season the prices for over 2.5 goals in their forthcoming games are high and will perhaps decrease if they continue to play more openly. I find good value in all three games at the moment.

Highlights from EA Guingamp v Olympique de Marseille can be seen below. You should especially observe the sloppy defensive play from Marseille in a few situations, e.g. Diawara’s extremely clumsy tackle that led to a Guingamp penalty (around 2:30 minutes in) and from N’Koulou before the goal (around 3:05). Also observe the wonderful piece from Valbuena that nearly resulted in a super goal (around 2:00 in).

Bet 1: Saturday, 17 Aug 2013, Marseille vs Evian TG over 2.5 goals at 2.00 (Bwin). 1 unit.

Bet 2: Saturday, 24 Aug 2013, Valenciennes vs Marseille over 2.5 goals at 2.20 (Bwin). 1.5 units.

Bet 3: Sunday, 01 Sep 2013, Marseille vs Monaco over 2.5 goals at 2.18 (Marathonbet). 1 unit.

Torns IF in great form

GIF Nike – Torns IF

I will take another bet in Division 2 Södra Götaland today. Torns IF from Stångby just outside Lund are in great shape. They won almost everything before the summer break and continued with an impressive win against Lindsdals IF after the break. Now they top the table and I believe that they will do so also after the derby game away to GIF Nike from Lomma.

Also Nike showed good form before the break, but they lost against Karlskrona last week. For me Torns IF should be the favourites here, but the bookies predict a very even game.

torns ifI cannot resist betting on Torn. Their form is brilliant and when we get 2.45 for the away win it is simply too good. I place my own home made handicap bet to cover up for the draw since I do not believe that Torns IF will lose. Two units are placed altogether. I bet with one to four units per game, but seldom with three and only once or twice a year with four.

Bet 1: GIF Nike – Torns IF: Torn win at 2.45 (Nordicbet). 1 unit.

Bet 2: GIF Nike – Torns IF: Torn win or draw at 1.50 (Bet365). 1 unit.

Result: 1-1 after a very late Nike equaliser. Thus -0.5 units

Lindsdals IF – BW90

lindsdals ifI also take an early bet on Lindsdals IF at home to BW90. Lindsdal have done great lately and should be contending in the very top of the table. I believe that they have a great chance on Saturday and take 1.5 units on a home win.

Bet 3: Lindsdals IF – BW90: Lindsdal win at 1.83 (Nordicbet). 1.5 units.

Result: 4-0. Thus +1.245 units


I will probably be away from the blog for a couple of days to support Team Highridge with Marcus Levin in Ranch Team Challenge at High Chapparal. Let us hope that Torns IF and Lindsdals IF make my visit even better…