I will take another bet in Division 2 Södra Götaland today. Torns IF from Stångby just outside Lund are in great shape. They won almost everything before the summer break and continued with an impressive win against Lindsdals IF after the break. Now they top the table and I believe that they will do so also after the derby game away to GIF Nike from Lomma.
Also Nike showed good form before the break, but they lost against Karlskrona last week. For me Torns IF should be the favourites here, but the bookies predict a very even game.
I cannot resist betting on Torn. Their form is brilliant and when we get 2.45 for the away win it is simply too good. I place my own home made handicap bet to cover up for the draw since I do not believe that Torns IF will lose. Two units are placed altogether. I bet with one to four units per game, but seldom with three and only once or twice a year with four.
Bet 1: GIF Nike – Torns IF: Torn win at 2.45 (Nordicbet). 1 unit.
Bet 2: GIF Nike – Torns IF: Torn win or draw at 1.50 (Bet365). 1 unit.
Result: 1-1 after a very late Nike equaliser. Thus -0.5 units
Lindsdals IF – BW90
I also take an early bet on Lindsdals IF at home to BW90. Lindsdal have done great lately and should be contending in the very top of the table. I believe that they have a great chance on Saturday and take 1.5 units on a home win.
Bet 3: Lindsdals IF – BW90: Lindsdal win at 1.83 (Nordicbet). 1.5 units.
Result: 4-0. Thus +1.245 units
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I will probably be away from the blog for a couple of days to support Team Highridge with Marcus Levin in Ranch Team Challenge at High Chapparal. Let us hope that Torns IF and Lindsdals IF make my visit even better…
Let us try to get a new football snowball rolling. I take at maximum one game each day and will pick out 40% of the profit after each bet. With this strategy the snowball will not accumulate as quickly as if you accumulate the complete win and only cash out money after a fixed number of bets (or some similar strategy). However, it is more safe in the sense that you will cash out some money each round.
Why do I like the snowball betting strategy? First of all, it is a possible way to have the opportunity to get a large win from a small initial wager. Second, I really enjoy looking for bets that ’should not fail’. Odds value is of course important as always, but – for me – it is most important to survive each round and have fun as long as possibly. When doing snowballs with a strict plan you are way more likely to get some money out of it than doing a accumulator with many bets the very same day. Moreover, when doing accumulators it is very hard to get value in your bet since you need to take bets from the same bookie.
This is a football snowball. It is perhaps a better strategy to mix sports to get the best bet each day, but I restrict to football to narrow down the search for games. I ran a tennis snowball earlier.
Football snowball – day 1
My first bet is St Patrick’s Athletic to beat Drogheda United in the top league in Ireland. St Patrick top the league and I hope and think that they will start a winning streak after their win against Cork City last week. Before that they had a few games without a win but that was against rather tough opponents. Drogheda sit in eighth position in the league after way too many drawn games (10 in 21 games and 6 in 11 away games). Because of the number of drawn games for the away team I play it very safe today and only pick the Asian +0 line (draw no bet, DnB). Bet365 offers the best price (1.17) I’ve found for this bet. The price is perhaps too low for a starting bet, but – for me – the main task in snowball betting is not to lose and have fun as long as possible!
Game previews may be found here or at St Patrick’s home page.
Bet 1: 1 unit on St Patrick’s Athletic DnB at 1.17 (Bet365)
Result: 0-0 => Push. 1 unit to next day.
Football snowball – day 2
Drogheda managed to get 0-0 and another draw, which resulted in a push for my first bet. Thus, still 1 unit to be placed for day 2.
The pick today is taken from Lithuania(!) and is purely based on stats. FK Atlantas host FK Šiauliai and I cannot see the away team go home with any points here. Atlantas is one of the better teams in the league. Šiauliai have six consecutive losses. Their last win was against Tauras Taurage, who only have four points in eighteen games. Many bookies offer 1.40 for an Atlantas win and that is good for me. Let us get our football snowball rolling!
Bet 2: 1 unit on Atlantas to win at 1.40 (Unibet)
Result: 3-0 => +0.40 units. Cash out 0.16 units. 1.24 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.16 units
Football snowball – day 3
Kopparberg/Göteborg FC (women) should be a better team than Piteå and they also defeated Piteå away with 2-0. After a sl0w start of the season Kopparberg got things together before the Euro break and I think they will continue with a win today. Bet365 offers 1.25 and that is good enough for me. Kopparberg HT/FT is also an interesting bet with good price from BetVictor (1.80).
Bet 3: 1.24 units on Kopparberg/Göteborg FC to win at 1.25 (Bet365)
Result: 1-0 => +0.31 units. Cash out 0.12 units. 1.43 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.28 units
Football snowball – day 4
Djurgårdens IF play Helsingborgs IF today. Helsingborg have scored in 38(!) consecutive games in Allsvenskan and I think that they will score again today. MarathonBet offers Asian lines on team goals and I take Helsingborg over 1.0 goals.
Bet 4: 1.43 units on Helsingborg over 1.0 goals (Asian) at 1.32 (MarathonBet)
Result: 2-1 => push. 1.43 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.28 units
Football snowball – day 5
My football snowball does not melt, but it rolls very very slowly. Only a push yesterday since Helsingborg only managed to score once. I am very happy with that though. Djurgården is my team.
Today I go back to Damallsvenskan. The difference between top and bottom is huge in this league and tomorrow LDB FC Malmö, second in the table with 24 points in 11 games (7-3-1) will play Sunnanå SK (0-3-8). The odds for a home win is around 1.03 and of course nothing to bet at. MarathonBet offers HT/FT at 1.24, which I think is good. Malmö should win this easily. Sunnanå struggle to get together a proper team. Read more here.
Bet 5: 1.43 units on Malmö HT/FT at 1.24 (MarathonBet)
Result: 1-0/4-0 => +0.34 units. Cash out 0.14 units. 1.63 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.42 units
Football snowball – day 6
Time to level up with a bet with a slightly higher odds. Örebro SK seem to be the best team in Superettan. Today they face Jönköping Södra and I think that the prices for a home win are too high. The reason for the high prices is probably caused by the game in Jönköping where J. Södra won with 2-0. However, Örebro have 8-0-0 at home and I believe that they will continue winning today. Be aware that they have a newly placed artificial turf and Örebro. See Örebro’s homepage for Youtube interviews with players and coaches.
In Örebro William Atashkadeh is back in the squad. J. Södra have three new players on loan in the squad. Manager Mats Gren says that they might rotate their squad a bit now due to many games in short time.
Bet 6: 1.63 units on Örebro to win at 1.507 (Pinnacle Sports)
Result: 3-1 => +0.83 units. Cash out 0.34 units. 2.12 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.76 units
Football snowball – day 7
Today I think that VfB Stuttgart should win at home to Botev Plovdiv. The game in Bulgaria finished 1-1 so the Germans really have to go for a win. Let us hope I am right here, my feeling wasn’t good after I placed the bet and perhaps I was too hasty. Some reasons for my bad feeling can be found here. Botev Plovdiv was the better side in Bulgaria. Top goalscorer Vedad Ibisevic is in doubt for Stuttgart. The game is not played in Stuttgart’s usual home ground Merceders-Benz Arena due to a Robbie Williams concert!
Bet 7: 2.12 units on VfB Stuttgart to win at 1.262 (Pinnacle Sports)
Result: 0-0 => meltdown. Extremely bad pick and I should of course have bought me out before the game. The bet did not feel right and in that case it is better to get out as quick as possible.
Total results: Seven bets with four winners and two pushes resulted in a total loss of 0.24 units.
Well, that was the last update of the post. I will come back with new football snowballs shortly.
Long time since I gave away a bet, but I think I have found a decent one.
Deportivo Quito host Quevedo in Ecuador and I think that the home team will win here. The two teams met recently and Quevedo won then. But in that game Quito got a player sent off when they were ahead. I watched parts of the game and Quito was a far better team.
Quevedo – Quito 4-3 after Quito a player down.
Apart from that lucky win, Quevedo has not won for seven games! Quito’s lasr result doesn’t impress at all (0-4 to Liga de Loja), but I hope that that match wake them up for the game tonight.
I take Quito -1 at Marathon (2.10) and a straight win at Betsafe (1.60).
Result:
The final score was 2-1 after a late Quito goal. Quito was the far better team and should have won more comfortably. One win and one void for me.
On June 9, 2013 I started a tennis snowball with one unit as initial wager. Unfortunately the initial wager was small and I need many days to get some good money from it. In the below image all my bets are summarised. Read below the image for the snowballing rules and the details each day!
The current status of the tennis snowball
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Let’s start a tennis snowball! I will only place bets on Pinnacle Sports this time. If you restrict yourself to one bookie Pinnacle is the one to use since they have the highest payout in general.
The idea is to go as follows. I will place a bet day 1 and continue by accumulating with a new bet in day 2. I will do the same for day 3, but after day 3 I will pick out 40% of the win from the last day. Continue as long as possible.
This time I will only place bets where I am very confident of a win. Therefore the odds on the placed bets will usually be very low and I need a nice run to be able to get some money out of it.
Day 1
Wager: 1 unit.
Bet: G. Dimitrov to win and M. Youzhny to win their respective games to accumulated odds 1.318.
Bet: Safarova to win against Karatantcheva to odds 1.166.
Outcome: Safarova wins 6-2, 7-6. +0.217 units.
Cash out: 0.007 units
Total cash out: 0.015 units
Wager to next bet: 1.52 units
Bet 2
Multiple bettors with good records have taken Benneteau to beat Mannarino today and since Pinnacle offers a very good price for a Benneteau win I take another bet today with higher price to level up until the cash-out levels.
Wager: 1.52 units.
Bet: Benneteau to win against Mannarino to odds 1.436.
Outcome: Benneteau wins (7-6, 6-3). +0.633 units.
Cash out: 0.003 units
Total cash out: 0.018 units
Wager to next day: 2.18 units
Day 3
Time for first cash out day if we survive! From today 40% of the profit each day will be cashed out.
I take a parlay with two of the tennis giants at the moment. I think and hope that both Federer and Berdych will win in straight sets today. They are both much better than their opponents and should win easily under normal circumstances. You could always argue that Federer is out of form, but it shouldn’t matter here. Berdych hasn’t played games for a while, but will hopefully be very prepared here.
Wager: 2.18 units.
Bet: Berdych and Federer to win their respective game in straight sets (2-0) to accumulated odds 1.726.
From now on I will be a bit more careful and play a kind of home made handicap bet most days. I will take one game only and bet on a straight favourite win to cover for the wager and use the remaining units to bet on a 2-0 victory for the same favourite. With this strategy I try to keep the wager safe but will hopefully help the snowball to grow a bit faster, compared to take the complete wager on the straight win. Today I go for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has been good recently.
Wager: 3.13 units.
Bet: Tsonga to beat Roger-Vasselin (2.79 units at odds 1.125) and with 2-0 (0.34 units at odds 1.471).
Outcome: Tsonga wins, but with 2-1 (6-3, 6-7, 6-3). +0.009 units.
Cash out: 0.009 units
Total cash out: 0.660 units
Wager to next day: 3.13 units
Day 5
A push yesterday and only 3.13 units to spend today as well. I will mainly consider single games each day from now, but I take a double by placing the complete wager on Federer to beat Mischa Zverev in straight sets and Tsonga to beat Denis Kudla.
Pinnacle offered good prices (1.173 and 1.10) on these two bets but their web site messed with me as usual and the prices decreased significantly during the half an hour I tried to place my bet. However, this snowball is not much about finding value but more about surviving as long as possible, so I place the bet anyway. But: PINNACLE SPORTS, WHY IS YOUR WEB SITE SO SLOW? WHY DO I ALWAYS HAVE PROBLEMS TO GET TO YOUR SITE FOR PARLAYS/ACCUMULATORS? WHY DO I ALWAYS GET THE MESSAGE ’502 Bad Gateway’?
Wager: 3.13 units.
Bet: Tsonga to win (1.089) and Federer to win with 2-0 (1.148) to accumulated odds 1.250.
I cashed out the initial wager now and level up again. T Haas has played good recently, but R Federer has impressed even more and should be big favourite today I think. I go for Federer to win for a small profit and Federer 2-0 for jackpot!
Bet: Federer to win against Haas (3 units at 1.294) and with 2-0 (0.6 units at 1.775).
Outcome: Federer wins by 2-1 (3-6, 6-3, 6-4). +0.222 units
Cash out: 0.112 units
Total cash out: 1.084 units
Wager to next day: 3.77 units
Day 7
Bet 1: John Isner to beat Evgeny Donskoy (3.4 units at 1.1).
Bet 2: Isner 2-0 & Marcos Baghdatis to beat Carlos Berlocq (0.34 units at accumulated odds 1.677).
Outcome: John Isner lost with 2-1 and the snowball melts down…
Cash out: 0
Total cash out: 1.084 units. Thus the initial wager is paid back.
Today I watched and live-bet on Denmark – Georgia. I started with 1 unit on Denmark -1 (Asian handicap) after 24 minutes of play since they were much better (without creating that many chances). Denmark lost possession though and suddenly Georgia scored. After a while Denmark took over the game again and I decided to ’save’ my initial bet with a bet on Denmark to win or draw if and when I got a price with good value.
As always, I had Bet365’s in-play site and Pinnacle Sports’ Asian view site up together with the in-play sites from one or two more bookies. And, as always, the prices on the Asian handicap bets were a lot better than the prices for Denmark to win or draw (or Denmark DnB which I also considered). Bet365’s prices for Denmark -0.5 from the current result (0-1, thus a bet on Denmark to win or draw) were always at least 0.10 higher than the actual bet on Denmark to win or draw. This is almost always the case with in-play betting and also often pre game (see image below for just one example from the games tomorrow).
I waited until 72 minutes when I placed 0.5 units on Denmark -0.5 at Pinnacle. I got 2.25, which was a bit better than Bet365’s price for the exact same bet and much better than Denmark to win or draw at Bet365 (which was an equivalent bet). So, what do we learn from situations like this?
Always have more than one in-play site up when you consider bets during the game.
Always compare your thoughts with the equivalent bet on the Asian handicap market. The prices differ in general and are higher on the Asian handicap market due to lower ’tax’ (higher payout) than in other markets.
So, how did the game end? Denmark turned things around and got a 2-1 win!
Are you new to Asian handicaps and Asian lines? Take a look at Wikipedia or my explanation for easy to understand explanations. There are also a great deal of books about Asian handicap betting.
Even pre game the prices for identical bets have different prices! Always look at the Asian handicap price!
For the fourth time this season I bet against Sölvesborgs GOIF. They do not have a team built for Div 2 and will probably struggle the whole season. Tomorrow they play FC Rosengård at home and Nordicbet offers 1.95 for the away win, which I think is good. Other bookies have prices below 1.80 for the away win.
I stick to one unit (of four) since Rosengård is much better at home and has also been a bit weak the last couple of games.
The second panel discussion from MIT Sloan’s sports analytics conference I listened to was about analytics in betting and sports prediction. The soccer analystics discussion I listened to first was interesting!
The discussion about predictive sports betting was interesting even though nothing new really came out. Participating were Jeff Ma (Moderator), member of the famous MIT Blackjack Team; Matthew Holt, Director at Cantor Gaming; Chad Millman, Editor in Chief and betting blogger at ESPN the Magazine; and Haralabos Voulgaris, professional punter.
Välkommen till en gnällig blogg om sport och spel!
Jag heter Martin Berglund och kommer från och med nu blogga här på lifeedge.se. Jag har tidigare skrivit om mina fotbollstankar på denna sida och kommer fortsätta enligt samma modell, men med en del justeringar. Jag ska försöka ägna mer tid åt att tycka till om sport i allmänhet och fotboll i synnerhet och lite mindre tid till att reka speltips. Speltipsen kommer fortfarande att finnas, men jag kommer inte ha någon ambition att dela med mig av sådana dagligen, utan mer när jag har tid för en ordentlig motivering och när jag tycker att jag hittat ett guldkorn. Följ mig på Twitter om du är intresserad av rena speltips med kortare motiveringar.
Min tanke är att främst ägna mig åt två saker.
Gnälla på sådant som händer runt omkring sport och fotboll (därav bloggnamnet fotbollsgnäll).
Räkna på och presentera statistik kring fotboll och spel, framförallt kring det underbara spelet Stryktipset.
Jag kommer som tidigare att skriva både på engelska och svenska. Jag har inte exakt bestämt mig hur det ska gå till rent praktiskt, men de gnälliga inläggen kommer nog främst skrivas på svenska och spelinläggen på engelska. Mina inlägg om Stryktipset kommer dock att vara på svenska.
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In English:
Welcome to a whiny blog about sports and sports betting!
My name is Martin Berglund and I will from now on blog here at lifeedge.se. I have previously written about my football thoughts on this site and I will continue in the same spirit, but with some adjustments. I will try to spend more time discussing sports in general and football in particular, and a little less time with betting tips. Bets will still be available, but I have no ambition to share tips daily, but more when I have time for a proper motivation and when I think I have found a pearl. Follow me on Twitter if you want pure betting tips with short motivations.
My idea is to primarily devote myself to two things.
Whine on things that happen around sports and football (hence the blog name footbollsgnäll).
Calculate on and present statistics about football and sports betting, especially about the wonderful game of Stryktipset.
I will, as before, write in both English and Swedish. I have not yet decided exactly how it will be done in practice, but the whiny posts will probably mainly be in Swedish and the betting posts in English. However, my posts about Stryktipset will be in Swedish.
I cannot resist betting on Torn. Their form is brilliant and when we get 2.45 for the away win it is simply too good. I place my own home made handicap bet to cover up for the draw since I do not believe that Torns IF will lose. Two units are placed altogether. I bet with one to four units per game, but seldom with three and only once or twice a year with four.
I also take an early bet on Lindsdals IF at home to BW90. Lindsdal have done great lately and should be contending in the very top of the table. I believe that they have a great chance on Saturday and take 1.5 units on a home win.
about Asian handicap betting.