Offside! Sverige-Österrike: Offsideregler

Sverige vinner alltså mot Österrike efter ännu ett drama. Gott så. Men med en bloggares rätt skiter jag i uttömmande analyser. Jag måste gnälla! Jag rasar på de nya direktiven kring offside som tydligen ska gälla i dagens fotboll.

offside_wilbacherOffsideregeln är sjuk. Har sagt det så många gånger förr och säger det igen. Vad vill man åt med den? Fler mål? Vill vi ha tvunget ha fler mål? Jag och Thomas Wilbacher behandlade frågan på Twitter i början av augusti. Minns inte vilken match det gällde, men känns bra att jag har åtminstone en vettig person med mig.

Bara några dagar tidigare, den sista juli, rasade jag ordentligt. Jag skrev att offsideregeln är åt helvete och hyllade den gamla hederliga offsidefällan. offsideNågonstans glad att jag skrek ut det redan då och inte bara nu när Sverige släpper in mål.

Jag tycker att Sveriges försvar gör det kanon som ställer fyra spelare offside vid inlägget. Inlägget är ämnat någon av dessa spelare. Vad är anledningen till att de inte anses vara offside? Förr pratade man om att spelare som inte deltar i spelet inte är offsidebara. Så verkar inte argumentationen vara längre. (Förresten, vad betyder ”att inte delta i spelet”? OK om du ligger skadad, men annars deltar man i spelet. Punkt.)

Så till reglerna. Skulle det blåsas av för offside? Som jag tolkar reglerna skulle det vara det. Så här står det i Spelregler för fotboll 2013:

En spelare i offsideposition ska endast bestraffas om han, i det ögonblick bollen vidrör eller spelas av en medspelare, enligt domarens uppfattning, är inblandad i aktivt spel genom att han [varför står det han förresten, min anmärkning]:
   • ingriper i spelet eller
   • stör en motspelare eller
   • vinner en fördel genom att vara i offsideposition

Enligt sista punkten var det offside vid Österrikes mål. Eller har reglerna ändrats? Eller är jag dum?

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Lite andra korta tankar:

  • Isaksson gnälls det på som vanligt under matchen men han är återigen klockren i landslaget. Vi har riktigt bra målvakter, men för mig är Isak ohotad etta.
  • Sverige är som Liverpool var i mitten av 00-talet, bra när de spelar desperat.
  • Elmander borde bli avstängd för filmning.
  • Kim Källströms passning till Zlatan är klass. Jag gillar Anders Svensson. Jag gillar Rasmus Elm. Jag gillar Albin Ekdal. Men för mig är Kim fortfarande Sveriges bästa mittfältare. Med alla mittfältare friska hade jag spelat Elm till höger och Källström tillsammans med Svensson eller Ekdal i mitten.
  • Offside!

FC Basel tonight?

FC Basel have a very strong team and have done well in Europe and in the league the last couple of seasons. They have only lost once this season (at home to Zurich) and impressed fc basel - allez allezheavily with a win away to Chelsea in the opening game of the Champions League group stage. For me they should be favourites against an ever underperforming Schalke 04 and when we get 2.07 for Basel +0 (equivalent to draw no bet, DnB) I think we have great value.

There are no big injury worries in Basel. Fabian Schär hurt his knee on Saturday, but trained yesterday and will be tested late tonight. Basel’s coach Murat Yakin says that his attacking players are in great form, but some of them have picked up small knocks and he might rest someone to this game.

Schalke 04 is a big club with great resources but they constantly underperform in the German Bundesliga. They concede far too many goals to be able to compete with the best teams. They have a rather good record in Europe, but to this game I think they should be the underdogs. Their coach Jens Keller also admits that FC Basel should be the favourites in this game.

There are a few important players unavailable for Schalke 04. Star attacking midfielder Julian Draxler was missed out during the weekend but will probably be available. However, Christian Fuchs, Kyriakos Papadopoulos, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, and Chinedu Obasi are all still injured and Jermaine Jones will not be picked.

Both teams usually score in their games and this could end 3-2 or something similar. I add a bet on over 2.75 goals in the game.

Bet 1: FC Basel – Schalke 04: Basel +0 at 2.07 (Pinnacle Sports). 1.5 units (max 4 units per game)

Bet 2: FC Basel – Schalke 04: Over 2.75 goals at 2.09 (Pinnacle Sports). 1 unit.

RESULT: 0-1, -2.5 units…

Bets from Spain

Three games will be played in Primera Division in Spain tonight and I have placed bets in two of them.

Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano

Sevilla have struggled in the opening games of the league.  With two points in five games they are placed bottom in the league. I have seen two of their games and I must say that they have been a bit unlucky, especially against Barcelona where Barca got their winner in the very last seconds of the game. Sevilla should have much more quality than Rayo Vallecano and I believe that they will win tonight.

Rayo Vallecano try to play offensive regardless whom they play. I believe that we will see goals tonight and place an over bet and one bet on a home win.

Bet 1: Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano: Sevilla -1.25 (Asian handicap) @1.847 (Pinnacle Sports). 1.5 units (max four per game).

Bet 2: Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano: Over 3.0 goals (Asian line) @1.847 (Pinnacle Sports). 1 unit.

RESULT: 4-1, +2.12 units

Elche – Real Madrid

Elche did very well last season and qualified to Primera Division after a lot of 1-0 and 2-0 victories. To this season they seem to have weaken the squad and should not have a chance against Real Madrid. Real play an important derby game against Atletico and will probably rest a few players. However, the quality in the squad should be good enough to defeat Elche with a couple of goals. I see value in the prices and place two units on Real Madrid -1.25.

It could be a good strategy to wait for the starting elevens. If Real rest their star players the price for the away win might increase.

Bet 3: Elche – Real Madrid: Real -1.25 (Asian line) @1.719 (Pinnacle Sports). 2 units.

RESULT: 1-2, -1.00 unit.

Good luck if you place bets tonight!

The snowball – Continuation

Weeks ago I started a snowball just for fun. I took in-play bets on Bet365 and got wins every time. After a while, despite the very small initial wager, the snowball became rather big and now (September 22, 2013) I have survived 21 bets! I have written out the bets here, but continue with this new post now to ease the reading. The bets will be filled below, but let us first present the bets so far. Three bookies have been used. I will continue choosing bets from these three.

The status of the snowball before the bet on September 22. The new bets are presented below.
The status of the snowball before the bet on September 22. The new bets are presented below.

After each win I will cash out 60% of the win and add the rest to the ever increasing wager.

Snowball bet 22 – September 22 – Red Bull Salzburg

The snowball is big now and it is hard to place the bet on one bookie. Today I take Red Bull Salzburg. The main bet is placed on Salzburg -1 (Asian), but a smaller part is also placed on the straight win (or rather, the -0.5 bet).

Bet 1: Red Bull Salzburg – Wolfsberger FC: Salzburg -1 @1.26 (MarathonBet). 11.20 units

Bet 2: Red Bull Salzburg – Wolfsberger FC: Salzburg -0.5 @1.18 (Bet365) 4.01 units

Result: 2-2. Salzburg were 2-0 up and totally on top of Wolfsberger but managed to concede twice. Snowball melts…

Total cashed out: 20.99 times the initial wager

Ikväll håller vi på Juve

Ikväll möts FC Köpenhamn och Juventus på Parken i Köpenhamn. Självfallet håller vi alla tummar för en bortaseger.

FCK’s hantering av supportrar med ’utländska namn’ är såklart rent åt helvete, det kan omöjligt vara lagligt att diskrimera människor på grund av deras namn. Tydligen har någon nu också polisamnält klubben. Heja!

Jag rasar ordentligt och orkar inte skriva mer, blir bara upprörd.

Tänker du spela på matchen tycker jag att det finns grymt spelvärde i Juventus. Jag har lagt tre enheter (maxspel ligger på fyra) till 1.40 på Bet365. För mig borde Juve vara jättefavoriter. FCK har börjat säsongen uselt och att de skulle ha en chans att ta poäng mot Juventus verkar otroligt för mig. Ett handikappspel borde också vara vettigt här. Läs lite mer om matchen på SvenskaFans.

A running snowball – Leyton Orient next

A few good and a few bad picks in my blogging-with-bets comeback yesterday. Importantly, Standard Liege did what they should and won easily. Therefore, my snowball is starting to grow really big. Leyton Orient FCNext up is Leyton Orient FC, and if they do their job on Tuesday I will continue to update this blog post with my next bets in the snowball until it melts.

The reason for making an already-started-snowball public is for my own sake. I believe I will do my research better and only take bets that I have really thought about if I publish them here. (But I guess that I will lose immediately now when I am going public.)

The rules are as usual when I play snowballs, money is cashed out after each round.

Below are a piece of the Excel sheet I use for the snowball. This picture will be updated after each winning bet.

The new picks are updated below. I will usually not motivate my picks.

The status of the snowball before the bet on September 22. The new posts will be presented in a new post, see below.
The status of the snowball before the bet on September 22. The new bets will be presented in a new post, see below.

17 September – Leyton Orient

8.69 units to place.

Leyton Orient – Notts County: Leyton Orient DnB @1.28 (Bet365). 5 units.

Leyton Orient – Notts County: Leyton Orient over 1.5 goals @1.90 (MarathonBet). 3.69 units.

Here I create my own home made kind of handicap bet on Leyton Orient. I really like 1.90 for Leyton Orient over 1.5 goals at MarathonBet but unfortunately I can’t play big on that bookie for this game. I play it a bit safe with 5 units on the Draw no Bet (DnB) option on Leyton Orient to survive even if this ends 0-0 or 1-1.

I do not think I will get 1.28 for Leyton Orient DnB or 1.90 for over 1.5 goals on Tuesday and place an early bet.

RESULT: 5-1, +4.72 units. 3.301 units are cashed out (70% of win) and 10.11 units are available for next bet.

18 September – Barcelona goals

Leyton orient did well last night. Today I go for goals in Barcelona vs Ajax. There is probably not much value in the bet, but I am confident that Barcelona will score at least two goals (probably more) and take Barcelona over 2.0 goals for half the wager. The other half is placed on over 1.0 goals in first half (for both teams). My bets are

Barcelona – Ajax: Barcelona over 2.0 goals (Asian line) @1.222 (MarathonBet). 5 units.

Barcelona – Ajax: Over 1.0 goals first half (Asian line) @1.26 (MarathonBet). 5.11 units.

RESULT: 4-0 (1-0) => Win on Barcelona over 2.0 goals, push on over 1.0 goals first half. 0.670 units are cashed out (60% of win) and 10.55 units available for next bet.

19 September – Fiorentina

Fiorentia – Pacos Ferreira: Home win @1.33 (Bet365). 10.55 units.

RESULT: 3-0 => +3.48 units. 2.092 units are cashed out (60% of win) and 11.94 units are available for next bet.

21 September – Barcelona

Tonight I take Barcelona. I will perhaps add an in-play bet on Atletico Madrid later (if Barcelona win).

Vallecano – Barcelona: Away win @1.20 (Bet365). 11.94 units.

RESULT: 0-4 => +2.39 units. 1.438 units are cashed out (60% of win) and 12.89 units are available for next bet.

I take another bet tonight.

Rayo Vallecano – Atletico Madrid: Atletico -0.25 (Asian) @1.45 (Bet365). 12.89 units.

RESULT: 0-2 => +5.80 units. 3.481 are cashed out (60% of win) and 15.21 units are available for next bet.

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I will continue presenting my bets in a new post.

Two bets today

It is certainly time to post bets again. Yesterday I posted a few on Twitter with good results. At the moment I have placed two bets today, this post might be updated later.

Sunday bet 1

Hoffenheim vs B Mönchengladbach over 3.0 goals (Asian) at 2.24 (Pinnacle Sports)

Both teams have played four league games this season and all eight games have ended with over 2.5 goals. Seven of the eight games have ended in over 3.5 goals. Looking at these statistics alone I believe that 2.24 is very good for the over 3.0 bet.

I spend two units (of four) on over 3 goals.

RESULT: 2-1, which means a push. +0 units.

Sunday bet 2

Oostende vs Standard Liege DnB 2 at 1.28 (Bet365)

I see great value in Standard Liege today. The straight bet is priced around 1.60 to 1.65 and I like that a lot. I take the DnB options for a running snowball however. My philosophy in running accumulators (snowballs) is that the most important thing is to survive each round. I cannot see St. Liege losing today.

They have six wins in six league game, scoring twelve goals and conceding none! They have done well in Europe as well.  Today they will play Oostende with only two points so far in the league.

I spend 7.82 (snowballing) units on St. Liege DnB.

RESULT: 2-4 and +2.19 units! 1.32 units (60 % of the win) are cashed out and in tomorrow’s bet 8.69 units will be placed.

The snowball bets so far
The snowball bets so far

UPDATE: Three additional bets without any motivation:

Sunday bet 3

Criciuma – Internacional over 2.5 goals in total @1.952 (Pinnacle Sports). 1 unit (of max 4)

RESULT: 0-1, -1 unit.

Sunday bet 4

Everon de Vina – Universidad de Chile: UdC over 1.5 goals @1.70 (MarathonBet). 1.5 units (of max 4)

RESULT: 2-1, -1.5 units. I watched this game and it was unbelievable that Universidad didn’t score twice. Unfortunately missed chances is common in Chile…

Sunday bet(s) 5

Vitoria BA – Nautico: Home win @1.74 (Pinnacle Sports). 0.5 units

Vitoria BA – Nautico: Vitoria over 1.5 goals @1.90 (MarathonBet). 0.5 units

RESULT: 2-1, +0.82 units.

Darlington, Sweden, and Djurgården won! Will LIF win?

amar purewalIt has been a great start of the weekend for ’my’ teams overall.

Darlington were 0-2 down at half time against Clitheroe but turned around to a 3-2 win after two late goals from Amar Purewal. Darlington now have four wins in five games and things look good in the Evo-Stik First Division North. Amar Purewal has a good goal scoring record for Darlington and I would love if he will stay and help them to move up to Evo-Stik Premier Division.

Darlington now have two straight home games at Heritage Park in Bishop Auckland (against teams in the lower half of the table). With two wins in these games Quakers have put themselves in a very good position for the rest of the season.

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Sweden got a very important win in Ireland (2-1) after goals from Johan Elmander and Anders Svensson. It was a rather crappy game in my opinion, with way too many unforced errors from the Swedish players. mikael lustigHowever, I think Sweden were much better than Ireland and got a deserved victory. However, they really need to decrease the number of missed passes. Mikael Lustig had a few, but also other players had some horrendous misses. An interesting fact is that full back Lustig has been involved in six of twelve goals so far for Sweden in the qualification.

Next Sweden travel to Kazakhstan and a victory is of course a must. In that case they have a great chance to take the second position in the group and getting a chance to qualify to the World Cup in Rio.

Lustig seems to have injury problems and I guess that he won’t start against Kazakhstan. I would play with Andreas Granqvist since I do not believe that Adam Johansson have the quality to start for Sweden. Johansson is a decent defender, but his season so far has been far from great. Granqvist is a defender with attacking qualities and I think he will do well as a full back. Moreover I would like to see Kim Källström back in the starting eleven. I guess I am the only Swede that thinks Kim should start, but I believe that he still is an excellent player and I think we need his offensive qualities against Kazakhstan.

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Djurgården’s ice hockey team has done well in European Trophy and won against Brynäs yesterday.  I hope that this will be the season when Djurgården get things together again and qualify for the top division in 2014-2015.

ljungby if—–

Today Ljungby IF have an important game away to BW90. LIF’s form is awful and I really hope that they turn around their loosing trend today.