After Christmas bets

I have had some time off during the Christmas holidays and therefore time to share a few bets. The analysis in Chelsea vs West Ham was a big success and I had quite a few readers on that post. On Twitter I have had weaker results. The over 2.75 bet in Wolves vs Brentford resulted in a half win, but Manchester City -2 (at home to Burnley) resulted in a disaster and over 2.75 in Tottenham – Manchester United could be seen as a fiasco after 0-0. However, United should have scored at least once in the first half, and if that had happened the game would probably opened up.

Well, it is time for a few new betting suggestions from England and Australia! Read and enjoy.

Bet 1: Derby County – Leeds United: Derby -1 at 1.92

Derby County have one of the stronger teams in the Championship and after a very disappointing away loss to tomorrow night’s opponents (in late November, Leeds got 2-0 at home and Derby failed to get a single shot on target). Since then, Derby have managed to get things together again. They have convincing wins at home to Brighton (3-0) and away to Birmingham on Boxing Day (4-0), an unfortunate 2-2 draw against Norwich, and a 2-0 defeat away to top contenders Middlesbrough.

Leeds United, on the other hand, have only managed to obtain one point in the four games after their win against Derby. With all the problems in and around the club I can’t see them get anything out of the game tomorrow night. Brazilian Adryan is believed to return to the starting eleven after been ruled out on boxing day.

I cannot see anything else than an easy home win here and have placed a -1 Asian Handicap bet on Derby. I got 1.92 at MarathonBet, but if you don’t have an account there (or perhaps is limited) I recommend 1.53 for the Derby -0.5 bet at Bet365 and/or 1.86 for a Derby -1 bet at Pinnacle Sports.

Bet 2: Ipswich Town – Charlton Athletic: Ipswich -1 at 2.10

Ipswich Town are doing extremely well at the moment. They sit second in the table and they are the best home team in the league (W8-D2-L1). They have four wins in their last five (including away to Charlton) and come from an impressive 4-2 win away to Brentford and a 2-0 victory at home to Middlesbrough.

Charlton Athletic are not bad. In their last game they got 1-1 at home to Cardiff, despite being one man down for about an hour. Away from home they have drawn six of eleven games (W2-D6-L3), and are hard to beat. However, the Ipswich team is showing a lot of character and I am going for the tough -1 Asian Handicap line. Read a preview here.

I got 2.10 from MarathonBet for the Asian Handicap -1 bet. You can get 1.60 for the straight home win at Bet365 and 2.02 for the -1 line. I believe that this offer some value.

Bet 3: Western Sydney Wanderers – Central Coast Mariners: Sydney -0.75 at 2.27

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Tomi Juric

During the Christmas holidays I have watched some football from Australia. Western Sydney Wanderers have not been able to combine the Asian Champions League (who they surprisingly won!), the FIFA Club World Cup and league football. Now they have time to focus on the league and they really need to start winning games after only three points in ten games. I saw their last loss away to Wellington Phoenix (1-0), and in that game they played well and were extremely unlucky to get nothing out (read and watch highlights here). Now they face a much weaker team and I believe that they will start a winning streak. It could be worthy checking the starting line ups. Star striker Tomi Juric is reported to leave the club, and he is important for Western Sydney.

Central Coast Mariners have eight points in twelve games (W1-D5-L6) and away from home they have four drawn games and two losses in six games. In their last encounter they got a 3-3 draw at home to Brisbane Roar and did not impress defensively. I believe that they hold much less quality than Sydney Wanderers and that the price is too much influenced by Sydney’s awful league stats.

I have taken Sydney -0.75 at 2.27 (Pinnacle Sports). The current price is 2.30 and other bookies offer prices around 2.20-2.25.

Bet 4: West Ham United – West Bromwich Albion: West Ham -0.75 at 2.14

West Ham United are doing extremely well and after two tough games against Chelsea and Arsenal I strongly believe that will get a victory again against a rather weak West Bromwich Albion.

I got 2.14 for the -0.75 Asian Handicap bet (Pinnacle Sports). The current price is 2.11 and I think that prices above 2.05 are worth to take.

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Two bets today

It is certainly time to post bets again. Yesterday I posted a few on Twitter with good results. At the moment I have placed two bets today, this post might be updated later.

Sunday bet 1

Hoffenheim vs B Mönchengladbach over 3.0 goals (Asian) at 2.24 (Pinnacle Sports)

Both teams have played four league games this season and all eight games have ended with over 2.5 goals. Seven of the eight games have ended in over 3.5 goals. Looking at these statistics alone I believe that 2.24 is very good for the over 3.0 bet.

I spend two units (of four) on over 3 goals.

RESULT: 2-1, which means a push. +0 units.

Sunday bet 2

Oostende vs Standard Liege DnB 2 at 1.28 (Bet365)

I see great value in Standard Liege today. The straight bet is priced around 1.60 to 1.65 and I like that a lot. I take the DnB options for a running snowball however. My philosophy in running accumulators (snowballs) is that the most important thing is to survive each round. I cannot see St. Liege losing today.

They have six wins in six league game, scoring twelve goals and conceding none! They have done well in Europe as well.  Today they will play Oostende with only two points so far in the league.

I spend 7.82 (snowballing) units on St. Liege DnB.

RESULT: 2-4 and +2.19 units! 1.32 units (60 % of the win) are cashed out and in tomorrow’s bet 8.69 units will be placed.

The snowball bets so far
The snowball bets so far

UPDATE: Three additional bets without any motivation:

Sunday bet 3

Criciuma – Internacional over 2.5 goals in total @1.952 (Pinnacle Sports). 1 unit (of max 4)

RESULT: 0-1, -1 unit.

Sunday bet 4

Everon de Vina – Universidad de Chile: UdC over 1.5 goals @1.70 (MarathonBet). 1.5 units (of max 4)

RESULT: 2-1, -1.5 units. I watched this game and it was unbelievable that Universidad didn’t score twice. Unfortunately missed chances is common in Chile…

Sunday bet(s) 5

Vitoria BA – Nautico: Home win @1.74 (Pinnacle Sports). 0.5 units

Vitoria BA – Nautico: Vitoria over 1.5 goals @1.90 (MarathonBet). 0.5 units

RESULT: 2-1, +0.82 units.

A tennis snowball

On June 9, 2013 I started a tennis snowball with one unit as initial wager. Unfortunately the initial wager was small and I need many days to get some good money from it. In the below image all my bets are summarised. Read below the image for the snowballing rules and the details each day!

Tennis snowball
The current status of the tennis snowball

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Let’s start a tennis snowball! I will only place bets on Pinnacle Sports this time. If you restrict yourself to one bookie Pinnacle is the one to use since they have the highest payout in general.

The idea is to go as follows. I will place a bet day 1 and continue by accumulating with a new bet in day 2. I will do the same for day 3, but after day 3 I will pick out 40% of the win from the last day. Continue as long as possible.

This time I will only place bets where I am very confident of a win. Therefore the odds on the placed bets will usually be very low and I need a nice run to be able to get some money out of it.

Day 1

Wager: 1 unit.

Bet: G. Dimitrov to win and M. Youzhny to win their respective games to accumulated odds 1.318.

Outcome: Dimitrov wins 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 (phew) & Youzhny wins 6-1, 6-2 (easy). +0.318 units!

Cash out: 0.008 units

Total cash out: 0.008 units

Wager to next day: 1.31 units

Day 2

Bet 1

Wager: 1.31 units.

Bet: Safarova to win against Karatantcheva to odds 1.166.

Outcome: Safarova wins 6-2, 7-6. +0.217 units.

Cash out: 0.007 units

Total cash out: 0.015 units

Wager to next bet: 1.52 units

Bet 2

Multiple bettors with good records have taken Benneteau to beat Mannarino today and since Pinnacle offers a very good price for a Benneteau win I take another bet today with higher price to level up until the cash-out levels.

Wager: 1.52 units.

Bet: Benneteau to win against Mannarino to odds 1.436.

Outcome:  Benneteau wins (7-6, 6-3). +0.633 units.

Cash out: 0.003 units

Total cash out: 0.018 units

Wager to next day: 2.18 units

Day 3

Time for first cash out day if we survive! From today 40% of the profit each day will be cashed out.

I take a parlay with two of the tennis giants at the moment. I think and hope that both Federer and Berdych will win in straight sets today. They are both much better than their opponents and should win easily under normal circumstances. You could always argue that Federer is out of form, but it shouldn’t matter here. Berdych hasn’t played games for a while, but will hopefully be very prepared here.

Wager: 2.18 units.

Bet: Berdych and Federer to win their respective game in straight sets (2-0) to accumulated odds 1.726.

Outcome: Berdych wins 2-0 (6-1, 6-4) & Federer wins 2-0 (6-3, 6-3). +1.583 units.

Cash out: 0.633 units

Total cash out: 0.651 units

Wager to next day: 3.13 units

Day 4

From now on I will be a bit more careful and play a kind of home made handicap bet most days. I will take one game only and bet on a straight favourite win to cover for the wager and use the remaining units to bet on a 2-0 victory for the same favourite. With this strategy I try to keep the wager safe but will hopefully help the snowball to grow a bit faster, compared to take the complete wager on the straight win. Today I go for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has been good recently.

Wager: 3.13 units.

Bet: Tsonga to beat Roger-Vasselin (2.79 units at odds 1.125) and with 2-0 (0.34 units at odds 1.471).

Outcome: Tsonga wins, but with 2-1 (6-3, 6-7, 6-3). +0.009 units.

Cash out: 0.009 units

Total cash out: 0.660 units

Wager to next day: 3.13 units

Day 5

A push yesterday and only 3.13 units to spend today as well. I will mainly consider single games each day from now, but I take a double by placing the complete wager on Federer to beat Mischa Zverev in straight sets and Tsonga to beat Denis Kudla.

Pinnacle offered good prices (1.173  and 1.10) on these two bets but their web site messed with me as usual and the prices decreased significantly during the half an hour I tried to place my bet. However, this snowball is not much about finding value but more about surviving as long as possible, so I place the bet anyway. But: PINNACLE SPORTS, WHY IS YOUR WEB SITE SO SLOW? WHY DO I ALWAYS HAVE PROBLEMS TO GET TO YOUR SITE FOR PARLAYS/ACCUMULATORS? WHY DO I ALWAYS GET THE MESSAGE ‘502 Bad Gateway’?

Wager: 3.13 units.

Bet: Tsonga to win (1.089) and Federer to win with 2-0 (1.148) to accumulated odds 1.250.

Outcome: Tsonga wins (6-3, 6-2) and Federer 2-0 (6-0, 6-0!). +0.783 units.

Cash out: 0.313 units.

Total cash out: 0.972 units

Wager to next day: 3.60 units

Day 6

I cashed out the initial wager now and level up again. T Haas has played good recently, but R Federer has impressed even more and should be big favourite today I think. I go for Federer to win for a small profit and Federer 2-0 for jackpot!

Bet: Federer to win against Haas (3 units at 1.294) and  with 2-0 (0.6 units at 1.775).

Outcome: Federer wins by 2-1 (3-6, 6-3, 6-4). +0.222 units

Cash out: 0.112 units

Total cash out: 1.084 units

Wager to next day: 3.77 units

Day 7

Bet 1: John Isner to beat Evgeny Donskoy (3.4 units at 1.1).

Bet 2: Isner 2-0 & Marcos Baghdatis to beat Carlos Berlocq (0.34 units at accumulated odds 1.677).

Outcome: John Isner lost with 2-1 and the snowball melts down…

Cash out: 0

Total cash out: 1.084 units. Thus the initial wager is paid back.

 

In-play betting: Always look at the Asian handicap prices

Today I watched and live-bet on Denmark – Georgia. I started with 1 unit on Denmark -1 (Asian handicap) after 24 minutes of play since they were much better (without creating that many chances). Denmark lost possession though and suddenly Georgia scored. After a while Denmark took over the game again and I decided to ‘save’ my initial bet with a bet on Denmark to win or draw if and when I got a price with good value.

As always, I had Bet365’s in-play site and Pinnacle Sports’ Asian view site up together with the in-play sites from one or two more bookies. And, as always, the prices on the Asian handicap bets were a lot better than the prices for Denmark to win or draw (or Denmark DnB which I also considered). Bet365’s prices for Denmark -0.5 from the current result (0-1, thus a bet on Denmark to win or draw) were always at least 0.10 higher than the actual bet on Denmark to win or draw. This is almost always the case with in-play betting and also often pre game (see image below for just one example from the games tomorrow).

I waited until 72 minutes when I placed 0.5 units on Denmark -0.5 at Pinnacle. I got 2.25, which was a bit better than Bet365’s price for the exact same bet and much better than Denmark to win or draw at Bet365 (which was an equivalent bet). So, what do we learn from situations like this?

  1. Always have more than one in-play site up when you consider bets during the game.
  2. Always compare your thoughts with the equivalent bet on the Asian handicap market. The prices differ in general and are higher on the Asian handicap market due to lower ‘tax’ (higher payout) than in other markets.

So, how did the game end? Denmark turned things around and got a 2-1 win!

Are you new to Asian handicaps and Asian lines? Take a look at Wikipedia or my explanation for easy to understand explanations. There are also a great deal of books about Asian handicap betting.

straight_bet_vs_asian_handicap
Even pre game the prices for identical bets have different prices! Always look at the Asian handicap price!

Monday bets

I have two bets for Monday at the moment. Might publish more here tomorrow.

Jönköping Södra – Falkenbergs FF: FFF DnB at 2.23 (Pinnacle Sports). 1.5 units of 4

Falkenberg has surprised every pundit and will top Superettan (Swedish second league) together with Örebro if they win here and I think that Falkenberg should be favourites in this game. There are no new injury worries in Falkenberg, but a few players are out long term (among them Zlatan Krizanovics who injured his cruciate ligament recently). Calle Wede is back though!

Jönköping Södra did not manage to score for 430 minutes until former Ljungby IF (my home club) forward Oskar Olsson managed to score in their impressive win away to Hammarby. As far as I know they have no new injuries. Despite their recent win I am sceptical to J Södras form and pick the away team here.

I also considered FFF +0.25 and under 2.5 goals but stick to DnB for now.

oskarolsson
Oskar Olsson after his goal against Hammarby

Millonarios – Alianza Petrolera: Millonarios -0.75 at 1.85 (Bet365). 1u/4u.

This bet is more based on stats, league position and recent form. I haven’t found anything special in the team news, but am a bit uncertain about team changes and stick to one unit for now. Millonarios is a good team at home (W6-D0-L2, where the losses came to top sides) and should win against Petrolera, a team in the lower parts of the table. Millonarios are defending champions in Colombian football. I think that Bet365 pays a bit too high for the home victory (1.62 for the straight bet).

millonarios_supporteres