December is here and it is time for another snowball. I will start with 100 SEK (Swedish krona) and accumulate my first two bets. After that I take out 50% of the win after each bet. All bets will be placed at Pinnacle Sports and most picks will be purely based on statistics.
As usual my main goal is to survive as long as possible and I pick games on a ”cannot miss”-basis (which of course isn’t the case) and most bets will be placed with low odds.
Bet 1 – Sunday 1 Dec – 100 SEK
Bet: Servette Geneve – FC Wohlen: Home win to 1.367.
Result: 1-0. 36.70 win.
I cash out 0.70 (0%) and take 136 SEK to the next bet.
Total cashed out: 0.70 SEK
Bet 2 – Tuesday 3 Dec – 136 SEK
Bet: Gornik Zabrze – Widzew Lodz: over 2.0 goals to 1.377.
Result: 3-2. 51.27 win.
I cash out 0.27 (0%) and take 187 SEK to the next bet.
Bet 3 – Wednesday 4 Dec – 187 SEK
Bet: Arsenal – Hull: Arsenal -1 to 1.377.
Result: 2-0. 70.69 win.
I cash out 35.69 (50%) and take 222 SEK to the next bet.
Bet 4 – Friday 6 Dec – 222 SEK
Bet: Home wins in Galatasaray – Elazigspor & Benfica – Arouca to joint odds 1.43.
Result: Galatasaray 2-0, but Benfica only got 2-2 and the snowball melted way too early.
Weeks ago I started a snowball just for fun. I took in-play bets on Bet365 and got wins every time. After a while, despite the very small initial wager, the snowball became rather big and now (September 22, 2013) I have survived 21 bets! I have written out the bets here, but continue with this new post now to ease the reading. The bets will be filled below, but let us first present the bets so far. Three bookies have been used. I will continue choosing bets from these three.
The status of the snowball before the bet on September 22. The new bets are presented below.
After each win I will cash out 60% of the win and add the rest to the ever increasing wager.
Snowball bet 22 – September 22 – Red Bull Salzburg
The snowball is big now and it is hard to place the bet on one bookie. Today I take Red Bull Salzburg. The main bet is placed on Salzburg -1 (Asian), but a smaller part is also placed on the straight win (or rather, the -0.5 bet).
Bet 1: Red Bull Salzburg – Wolfsberger FC: Salzburg -1 @1.26 (MarathonBet). 11.20 units
Bet 2: Red Bull Salzburg – Wolfsberger FC: Salzburg -0.5 @1.18 (Bet365) 4.01 units
Result: 2-2. Salzburg were 2-0 up and totally on top of Wolfsberger but managed to concede twice. Snowball melts…
A few good and a few bad picks in my blogging-with-bets comeback yesterday. Importantly, Standard Liege did what they should and won easily. Therefore, my snowball is starting to grow really big. Next up is Leyton Orient FC, and if they do their job on Tuesday I will continue to update this blog post with my next bets in the snowball until it melts.
The reason for making an already-started-snowball public is for my own sake. I believe I will do my research better and only take bets that I have really thought about if I publish them here. (But I guess that I will lose immediately now when I am going public.)
The rules are as usual when I play snowballs, money is cashed out after each round.
Below are a piece of the Excel sheet I use for the snowball. This picture will be updated after each winning bet.
The new picks are updated below. I will usually not motivate my picks.
The status of the snowball before the bet on September 22. The new bets will be presented in a new post, see below.
Here I create my own home made kind of handicap bet on Leyton Orient. I really like 1.90 for Leyton Orient over 1.5 goals at MarathonBet but unfortunately I can’t play big on that bookie for this game. I play it a bit safe with 5 units on the Draw no Bet (DnB) option on Leyton Orient to survive even if this ends 0-0 or 1-1.
I do not think I will get 1.28 for Leyton Orient DnB or 1.90 for over 1.5 goals on Tuesday and place an early bet.
RESULT: 5-1, +4.72 units. 3.301 units are cashed out (70% of win) and 10.11 units are available for next bet.
18 September – Barcelona goals
Leyton orient did well last night. Today I go for goals in Barcelona vs Ajax. There is probably not much value in the bet, but I am confident that Barcelona will score at least two goals (probably more) and take Barcelona over 2.0 goals for half the wager. The other half is placed on over 1.0 goals in first half (for both teams). My bets are
Barcelona – Ajax: Barcelona over 2.0 goals (Asian line) @1.222 (MarathonBet). 5 units.
Barcelona – Ajax: Over 1.0 goals first half (Asian line) @1.26 (MarathonBet). 5.11 units.
RESULT: 4-0 (1-0) => Win on Barcelona over 2.0 goals, push on over 1.0 goals first half. 0.670 units are cashed out (60% of win) and 10.55 units available for next bet.
19 September – Fiorentina
Fiorentia – Pacos Ferreira: Home win @1.33 (Bet365). 10.55 units.
RESULT: 3-0 => +3.48 units. 2.092 units are cashed out (60% of win) and 11.94 units are available for next bet.
21 September – Barcelona
Tonight I take Barcelona. I will perhaps add an in-play bet on Atletico Madrid later (if Barcelona win).
It is certainly time to post bets again. Yesterday I posted a few on Twitter with good results. At the moment I have placed two bets today, this post might be updated later.
Sunday bet 1
Hoffenheim vs B Mönchengladbach over 3.0 goals (Asian) at 2.24 (Pinnacle Sports)
Both teams have played four league games this season and all eight games have ended with over 2.5 goals. Seven of the eight games have ended in over 3.5 goals. Looking at these statistics alone I believe that 2.24 is very good for the over 3.0 bet.
I see great value in Standard Liege today. The straight bet is priced around 1.60 to 1.65 and I like that a lot. I take the DnB options for a running snowball however. My philosophy in running accumulators (snowballs) is that the most important thing is to survive each round. I cannot see St. Liege losing today.
They have six wins in six league game, scoring twelve goals and conceding none! They have done well in Europe as well. Today they will play Oostende with only two points so far in the league.
I spend 7.82 (snowballing) units on St. Liege DnB.
RESULT: 2-4 and +2.19 units! 1.32 units (60 % of the win) are cashed out and in tomorrow’s bet 8.69 units will be placed.
The snowball bets so far
UPDATE: Three additional bets without any motivation:
Sunday bet 3
Criciuma – Internacional over 2.5 goals in total @1.952 (Pinnacle Sports). 1 unit (of max 4)
RESULT: 0-1, -1 unit.
Sunday bet 4
Everon de Vina – Universidad de Chile: UdC over 1.5 goals @1.70 (MarathonBet). 1.5 units (of max 4)
RESULT: 2-1, -1.5 units. I watched this game and it was unbelievable that Universidad didn’t score twice. Unfortunately missed chances is common in Chile…
Sunday bet(s) 5
Vitoria BA – Nautico: Home win @1.74 (Pinnacle Sports). 0.5 units
Vitoria BA – Nautico: Vitoria over 1.5 goals @1.90 (MarathonBet). 0.5 units
Two hours to deadline for SnowballOpen 3.0. Please join! The more the merrier.
SnowballOpen Bet 1:
My first bet is Maribor (-1, Asian) away to Triglav at 1.375 at bet365. Initial wager is 100 SEK. There should be very large differences between the two teams and I believe that 1.375 is a good price for -1. If it wasn’t for the snowball I would consider -1.5 here. Now I stick to the snowball bet.
Bet 1: Maribor -1 @1.375 (bet365). 100 SEK.
SnowballOpen Bet 2:
Maribor only managed a 1-0 win which means a push after day one. Thus, still 100 SEK to place. I continue with an Asian handicap bet at bet365. Paris Saint-Germain have started the season with two draws and really need a win away to newly promoted FC Nantes. I watched parts of PSG’s last game at home to Ajaccio and they should have scored at least three considering the chances they had. I believe that they will score against Nantes instead. I was going to take PSG -0.75 to a slightly higher price earlier, but didn’t have the time then. There is still value though.
I also considered Manchester City against Cardiff City for my snowball, but decided to go for PSG. I take a bet on Man City as well though, I spend two units (of four) on Man City (-1) at 1.763 (Pinnacle Sports).
Bet 2: PSG -0.75 @1.70 (bet365). 100 SEK.
SnowballOpen Bet 3:
I got a half win yesterday and at least this got the snowball rolling. Today I have struggled to find a good bet and decided to take one from Iceland. UMF Stjarnan host ÍA Akranes and looking at the stats this should end with a home win. Pinnacle Sports offers 1.386 for Stjarnan and I believe that this has some value.
Stjarnan are placed third in the Icelandic top division (W9-D4-L2, 24-15 in total and 6-1-1, 15-9 at home) and Akranes sit rock bottom with 2-2-12, 21-40 in total and 0-1-7, 8-20 away from home. Stjarnan have had a rather bad spell recently but won in their last game and have a great opportunity to continue with a win against Akranes.
Bet 3: UMF Stjarnan @1.386 (Pinnacle Sports). 135 SEK.
SnowballOpen Bet 4:
UMF Stjarnan managed to win (1-0) but it was hard to follow the game on my livescore since Akranes seemed to create chances and Stjarnan played with ten men the last twenty minutes after former Stabæk striker Veigar Páll Gunnarsson got his second yellow card in the game. I continue SnowballOpen 3.0 by looking for games with rather low odds and take LdB Malmö (women) to beat Linköpings FC for round four.
Malmö is probably the best team in Damallsvenskan at the moment. They have an impressive run with five wins and one draw in their last six games. They have beaten Sunnanå and Kopparberg/Göteborg twice and Tyresö once (despite being 1-2 down and only ten players on the pitch). The drawn game came against Tyresö. With offensive players like Bachmann, Mittag, Melis, and Sjögran (to mention a few) I cannot see them dropping a point at home to Linköping.
However, be aware that Malmö’s last loss was against Linköping, but that game was played away and Linköpings FC have performed much better at home than away from home. Moreover, Swedish international Nilla Fischer has now leaved the club and joined Wolfsburg in Germany and important goalkeeper Sofia Lundgren is out injured.
At first I planned to wait for the handicap market to open up for this game, but have decided to go for the straight home win. Unibet pays best at the moment and 1.32 is good enough for me.
Bet 4: LdB Malmö @1.32 (Unibet). 182.11 SEK.
SnowballOpen Bet 5:
LdB Malmö won very convincingly and I’m still a part of SnowballOpen 3.0! There are only twelve persons left and I am placed at position twelve…
Today I go for a bet with higher odds though since I take a -1.5 handicap bet. It is placed on IFK Norrköping who travel to Vimmerby for a game in the Swedish Cup. Vimmerby play in Divison 2 Södra Svealand and should, under normal circumstances, not have any chances against Norrköping. Vimmerby started the season very well, but have struggled lately and have lost more games than they have won now (W6-D2-L7, 19-24 in goals). Today Rikard Turesson and Lansana Kamara are doubtful and talented defender Johan Lundin is suspended after being sent off in Vimmerby’s impressive win against Huskvarna in the first round. Niklas Nilsson and Daniel Ek are injured
IFK Norrköping will travel with a strong squad and should be too good if they put enough effort into the game. Manager Janne Andersson says that the game is important and I do not think he will tolerate anything else than a win. I gamble a bit and take the -1.5 bet to catch up a bit with the other contenders in SnowballOpen 3.0.
Bet 5: IFK Norrköping -1.5 @1.72 (MarathonBet). 246.04 SEK.
SnowballOpen Bet 6:
Easy win for IFK Norrköping yesterday and I am still alive! Perhaps I should go for a price to catch up even more, but I decided that the most important thing is to survive each day and therefore I go for a bet with high probability (hence low odds).
Tomorrow there is a big derby in Dublin and I strongly believe that St. Patrick Athletic Football Club should be big favourites against Behemian Football Club and pick St. Patricks -1 @1.50, which I think is a bit too high. I’m too tired to motivate my pick this time, but you can read more about the game on St. Patrick’s and Bohemian’s webpages. Especially observe that Dave Mulcahy is suspended for Bohemians.
Bet 6: St. Patricks -1.0 @1.50 (MarathonBet). 423.19 SEK.
I AM OUT! St. Patricks had 1-0 and a goal disallowed just before Bohemians equaliser (my two opened livescores had 2-0 and later 2-1 for a while…). It was great fun this but I simply took the wrong bet today. Should have taken Helsingborg.
Let us try to get a new football snowball rolling. I take at maximum one game each day and will pick out 40% of the profit after each bet. With this strategy the snowball will not accumulate as quickly as if you accumulate the complete win and only cash out money after a fixed number of bets (or some similar strategy). However, it is more safe in the sense that you will cash out some money each round.
Why do I like the snowball betting strategy? First of all, it is a possible way to have the opportunity to get a large win from a small initial wager. Second, I really enjoy looking for bets that ’should not fail’. Odds value is of course important as always, but – for me – it is most important to survive each round and have fun as long as possibly. When doing snowballs with a strict plan you are way more likely to get some money out of it than doing a accumulator with many bets the very same day. Moreover, when doing accumulators it is very hard to get value in your bet since you need to take bets from the same bookie.
This is a football snowball. It is perhaps a better strategy to mix sports to get the best bet each day, but I restrict to football to narrow down the search for games. I ran a tennis snowball earlier.
Football snowball – day 1
My first bet is St Patrick’s Athletic to beat Drogheda United in the top league in Ireland. St Patrick top the league and I hope and think that they will start a winning streak after their win against Cork City last week. Before that they had a few games without a win but that was against rather tough opponents. Drogheda sit in eighth position in the league after way too many drawn games (10 in 21 games and 6 in 11 away games). Because of the number of drawn games for the away team I play it very safe today and only pick the Asian +0 line (draw no bet, DnB). Bet365 offers the best price (1.17) I’ve found for this bet. The price is perhaps too low for a starting bet, but – for me – the main task in snowball betting is not to lose and have fun as long as possible!
Game previews may be found here or at St Patrick’s home page.
Bet 1: 1 unit on St Patrick’s Athletic DnB at 1.17 (Bet365)
Result: 0-0 => Push. 1 unit to next day.
Football snowball – day 2
Drogheda managed to get 0-0 and another draw, which resulted in a push for my first bet. Thus, still 1 unit to be placed for day 2.
The pick today is taken from Lithuania(!) and is purely based on stats. FK Atlantas host FK Šiauliai and I cannot see the away team go home with any points here. Atlantas is one of the better teams in the league. Šiauliai have six consecutive losses. Their last win was against Tauras Taurage, who only have four points in eighteen games. Many bookies offer 1.40 for an Atlantas win and that is good for me. Let us get our football snowball rolling!
Bet 2: 1 unit on Atlantas to win at 1.40 (Unibet)
Result: 3-0 => +0.40 units. Cash out 0.16 units. 1.24 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.16 units
Football snowball – day 3
Kopparberg/Göteborg FC (women) should be a better team than Piteå and they also defeated Piteå away with 2-0. After a sl0w start of the season Kopparberg got things together before the Euro break and I think they will continue with a win today. Bet365 offers 1.25 and that is good enough for me. Kopparberg HT/FT is also an interesting bet with good price from BetVictor (1.80).
Bet 3: 1.24 units on Kopparberg/Göteborg FC to win at 1.25 (Bet365)
Result: 1-0 => +0.31 units. Cash out 0.12 units. 1.43 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.28 units
Football snowball – day 4
Djurgårdens IF play Helsingborgs IF today. Helsingborg have scored in 38(!) consecutive games in Allsvenskan and I think that they will score again today. MarathonBet offers Asian lines on team goals and I take Helsingborg over 1.0 goals.
Bet 4: 1.43 units on Helsingborg over 1.0 goals (Asian) at 1.32 (MarathonBet)
Result: 2-1 => push. 1.43 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.28 units
Football snowball – day 5
My football snowball does not melt, but it rolls very very slowly. Only a push yesterday since Helsingborg only managed to score once. I am very happy with that though. Djurgården is my team.
Today I go back to Damallsvenskan. The difference between top and bottom is huge in this league and tomorrow LDB FC Malmö, second in the table with 24 points in 11 games (7-3-1) will play Sunnanå SK (0-3-8). The odds for a home win is around 1.03 and of course nothing to bet at. MarathonBet offers HT/FT at 1.24, which I think is good. Malmö should win this easily. Sunnanå struggle to get together a proper team. Read more here.
Bet 5: 1.43 units on Malmö HT/FT at 1.24 (MarathonBet)
Result: 1-0/4-0 => +0.34 units. Cash out 0.14 units. 1.63 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.42 units
Football snowball – day 6
Time to level up with a bet with a slightly higher odds. Örebro SK seem to be the best team in Superettan. Today they face Jönköping Södra and I think that the prices for a home win are too high. The reason for the high prices is probably caused by the game in Jönköping where J. Södra won with 2-0. However, Örebro have 8-0-0 at home and I believe that they will continue winning today. Be aware that they have a newly placed artificial turf and Örebro. See Örebro’s homepage for Youtube interviews with players and coaches.
In Örebro William Atashkadeh is back in the squad. J. Södra have three new players on loan in the squad. Manager Mats Gren says that they might rotate their squad a bit now due to many games in short time.
Bet 6: 1.63 units on Örebro to win at 1.507 (Pinnacle Sports)
Result: 3-1 => +0.83 units. Cash out 0.34 units. 2.12 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.76 units
Football snowball – day 7
Today I think that VfB Stuttgart should win at home to Botev Plovdiv. The game in Bulgaria finished 1-1 so the Germans really have to go for a win. Let us hope I am right here, my feeling wasn’t good after I placed the bet and perhaps I was too hasty. Some reasons for my bad feeling can be found here. Botev Plovdiv was the better side in Bulgaria. Top goalscorer Vedad Ibisevic is in doubt for Stuttgart. The game is not played in Stuttgart’s usual home ground Merceders-Benz Arena due to a Robbie Williams concert!
Bet 7: 2.12 units on VfB Stuttgart to win at 1.262 (Pinnacle Sports)
Result: 0-0 => meltdown. Extremely bad pick and I should of course have bought me out before the game. The bet did not feel right and in that case it is better to get out as quick as possible.
Total results: Seven bets with four winners and two pushes resulted in a total loss of 0.24 units.
Well, that was the last update of the post. I will come back with new football snowballs shortly.
My tennis snowball grows slowly but steadily and I have now cashed out the initial wager (or 0.972 percent of it). Today I go for Federer. Read here for all the details.
On June 9, 2013 I started a tennis snowball with one unit as initial wager. Unfortunately the initial wager was small and I need many days to get some good money from it. In the below image all my bets are summarised. Read below the image for the snowballing rules and the details each day!
The current status of the tennis snowball
—————————————-
Let’s start a tennis snowball! I will only place bets on Pinnacle Sports this time. If you restrict yourself to one bookie Pinnacle is the one to use since they have the highest payout in general.
The idea is to go as follows. I will place a bet day 1 and continue by accumulating with a new bet in day 2. I will do the same for day 3, but after day 3 I will pick out 40% of the win from the last day. Continue as long as possible.
This time I will only place bets where I am very confident of a win. Therefore the odds on the placed bets will usually be very low and I need a nice run to be able to get some money out of it.
Day 1
Wager: 1 unit.
Bet: G. Dimitrov to win and M. Youzhny to win their respective games to accumulated odds 1.318.
Bet: Safarova to win against Karatantcheva to odds 1.166.
Outcome: Safarova wins 6-2, 7-6. +0.217 units.
Cash out: 0.007 units
Total cash out: 0.015 units
Wager to next bet: 1.52 units
Bet 2
Multiple bettors with good records have taken Benneteau to beat Mannarino today and since Pinnacle offers a very good price for a Benneteau win I take another bet today with higher price to level up until the cash-out levels.
Wager: 1.52 units.
Bet: Benneteau to win against Mannarino to odds 1.436.
Outcome: Benneteau wins (7-6, 6-3). +0.633 units.
Cash out: 0.003 units
Total cash out: 0.018 units
Wager to next day: 2.18 units
Day 3
Time for first cash out day if we survive! From today 40% of the profit each day will be cashed out.
I take a parlay with two of the tennis giants at the moment. I think and hope that both Federer and Berdych will win in straight sets today. They are both much better than their opponents and should win easily under normal circumstances. You could always argue that Federer is out of form, but it shouldn’t matter here. Berdych hasn’t played games for a while, but will hopefully be very prepared here.
Wager: 2.18 units.
Bet: Berdych and Federer to win their respective game in straight sets (2-0) to accumulated odds 1.726.
From now on I will be a bit more careful and play a kind of home made handicap bet most days. I will take one game only and bet on a straight favourite win to cover for the wager and use the remaining units to bet on a 2-0 victory for the same favourite. With this strategy I try to keep the wager safe but will hopefully help the snowball to grow a bit faster, compared to take the complete wager on the straight win. Today I go for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has been good recently.
Wager: 3.13 units.
Bet: Tsonga to beat Roger-Vasselin (2.79 units at odds 1.125) and with 2-0 (0.34 units at odds 1.471).
Outcome: Tsonga wins, but with 2-1 (6-3, 6-7, 6-3). +0.009 units.
Cash out: 0.009 units
Total cash out: 0.660 units
Wager to next day: 3.13 units
Day 5
A push yesterday and only 3.13 units to spend today as well. I will mainly consider single games each day from now, but I take a double by placing the complete wager on Federer to beat Mischa Zverev in straight sets and Tsonga to beat Denis Kudla.
Pinnacle offered good prices (1.173 and 1.10) on these two bets but their web site messed with me as usual and the prices decreased significantly during the half an hour I tried to place my bet. However, this snowball is not much about finding value but more about surviving as long as possible, so I place the bet anyway. But: PINNACLE SPORTS, WHY IS YOUR WEB SITE SO SLOW? WHY DO I ALWAYS HAVE PROBLEMS TO GET TO YOUR SITE FOR PARLAYS/ACCUMULATORS? WHY DO I ALWAYS GET THE MESSAGE ’502 Bad Gateway’?
Wager: 3.13 units.
Bet: Tsonga to win (1.089) and Federer to win with 2-0 (1.148) to accumulated odds 1.250.
I cashed out the initial wager now and level up again. T Haas has played good recently, but R Federer has impressed even more and should be big favourite today I think. I go for Federer to win for a small profit and Federer 2-0 for jackpot!
Bet: Federer to win against Haas (3 units at 1.294) and with 2-0 (0.6 units at 1.775).
Outcome: Federer wins by 2-1 (3-6, 6-3, 6-4). +0.222 units
Cash out: 0.112 units
Total cash out: 1.084 units
Wager to next day: 3.77 units
Day 7
Bet 1: John Isner to beat Evgeny Donskoy (3.4 units at 1.1).
Bet 2: Isner 2-0 & Marcos Baghdatis to beat Carlos Berlocq (0.34 units at accumulated odds 1.677).
Outcome: John Isner lost with 2-1 and the snowball melts down…
Cash out: 0
Total cash out: 1.084 units. Thus the initial wager is paid back.
