The tennis snowball

My tennis snowball grows slowly but steadily and I have now cashed out the initial wager (or 0.972 percent of it). Today I go for Federer. Read here for all the details.

The snowball status at the moment.
The snowball status at the moment.

A tennis snowball

On June 9, 2013 I started a tennis snowball with one unit as initial wager. Unfortunately the initial wager was small and I need many days to get some good money from it. In the below image all my bets are summarised. Read below the image for the snowballing rules and the details each day!

Tennis snowball
The current status of the tennis snowball


Let’s start a tennis snowball! I will only place bets on Pinnacle Sports this time. If you restrict yourself to one bookie Pinnacle is the one to use since they have the highest payout in general.

The idea is to go as follows. I will place a bet day 1 and continue by accumulating with a new bet in day 2. I will do the same for day 3, but after day 3 I will pick out 40% of the win from the last day. Continue as long as possible.

This time I will only place bets where I am very confident of a win. Therefore the odds on the placed bets will usually be very low and I need a nice run to be able to get some money out of it.

Day 1

Wager: 1 unit.

Bet: G. Dimitrov to win and M. Youzhny to win their respective games to accumulated odds 1.318.

Outcome: Dimitrov wins 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 (phew) & Youzhny wins 6-1, 6-2 (easy). +0.318 units!

Cash out: 0.008 units

Total cash out: 0.008 units

Wager to next day: 1.31 units

Day 2

Bet 1

Wager: 1.31 units.

Bet: Safarova to win against Karatantcheva to odds 1.166.

Outcome: Safarova wins 6-2, 7-6. +0.217 units.

Cash out: 0.007 units

Total cash out: 0.015 units

Wager to next bet: 1.52 units

Bet 2

Multiple bettors with good records have taken Benneteau to beat Mannarino today and since Pinnacle offers a very good price for a Benneteau win I take another bet today with higher price to level up until the cash-out levels.

Wager: 1.52 units.

Bet: Benneteau to win against Mannarino to odds 1.436.

Outcome:  Benneteau wins (7-6, 6-3). +0.633 units.

Cash out: 0.003 units

Total cash out: 0.018 units

Wager to next day: 2.18 units

Day 3

Time for first cash out day if we survive! From today 40% of the profit each day will be cashed out.

I take a parlay with two of the tennis giants at the moment. I think and hope that both Federer and Berdych will win in straight sets today. They are both much better than their opponents and should win easily under normal circumstances. You could always argue that Federer is out of form, but it shouldn’t matter here. Berdych hasn’t played games for a while, but will hopefully be very prepared here.

Wager: 2.18 units.

Bet: Berdych and Federer to win their respective game in straight sets (2-0) to accumulated odds 1.726.

Outcome: Berdych wins 2-0 (6-1, 6-4) & Federer wins 2-0 (6-3, 6-3). +1.583 units.

Cash out: 0.633 units

Total cash out: 0.651 units

Wager to next day: 3.13 units

Day 4

From now on I will be a bit more careful and play a kind of home made handicap bet most days. I will take one game only and bet on a straight favourite win to cover for the wager and use the remaining units to bet on a 2-0 victory for the same favourite. With this strategy I try to keep the wager safe but will hopefully help the snowball to grow a bit faster, compared to take the complete wager on the straight win. Today I go for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has been good recently.

Wager: 3.13 units.

Bet: Tsonga to beat Roger-Vasselin (2.79 units at odds 1.125) and with 2-0 (0.34 units at odds 1.471).

Outcome: Tsonga wins, but with 2-1 (6-3, 6-7, 6-3). +0.009 units.

Cash out: 0.009 units

Total cash out: 0.660 units

Wager to next day: 3.13 units

Day 5

A push yesterday and only 3.13 units to spend today as well. I will mainly consider single games each day from now, but I take a double by placing the complete wager on Federer to beat Mischa Zverev in straight sets and Tsonga to beat Denis Kudla.

Pinnacle offered good prices (1.173  and 1.10) on these two bets but their web site messed with me as usual and the prices decreased significantly during the half an hour I tried to place my bet. However, this snowball is not much about finding value but more about surviving as long as possible, so I place the bet anyway. But: PINNACLE SPORTS, WHY IS YOUR WEB SITE SO SLOW? WHY DO I ALWAYS HAVE PROBLEMS TO GET TO YOUR SITE FOR PARLAYS/ACCUMULATORS? WHY DO I ALWAYS GET THE MESSAGE ’502 Bad Gateway’?

Wager: 3.13 units.

Bet: Tsonga to win (1.089) and Federer to win with 2-0 (1.148) to accumulated odds 1.250.

Outcome: Tsonga wins (6-3, 6-2) and Federer 2-0 (6-0, 6-0!). +0.783 units.

Cash out: 0.313 units.

Total cash out: 0.972 units

Wager to next day: 3.60 units

Day 6

I cashed out the initial wager now and level up again. T Haas has played good recently, but R Federer has impressed even more and should be big favourite today I think. I go for Federer to win for a small profit and Federer 2-0 for jackpot!

Bet: Federer to win against Haas (3 units at 1.294) and  with 2-0 (0.6 units at 1.775).

Outcome: Federer wins by 2-1 (3-6, 6-3, 6-4). +0.222 units

Cash out: 0.112 units

Total cash out: 1.084 units

Wager to next day: 3.77 units

Day 7

Bet 1: John Isner to beat Evgeny Donskoy (3.4 units at 1.1).

Bet 2: Isner 2-0 & Marcos Baghdatis to beat Carlos Berlocq (0.34 units at accumulated odds 1.677).

Outcome: John Isner lost with 2-1 and the snowball melts down…

Cash out: 0

Total cash out: 1.084 units. Thus the initial wager is paid back.