Det är dags för årets första Stryktipsomgång och här kommer streck- och sannolikhetsfördelningen. Sannolikhetsberäkningarna baseras på medeloddsen från flera spelbolag på oddsportal.com. Bäst spelvärde verkar Wigan ha.
Denna vecka är det FA-cupdags och svårare än vanligt. Det gäller att försöka ta reda på hur lagen ställer upp och med vilket allvar de tar matchen. Orkar/hinner man inte kolla startelvor osv får man lite på spelbolagen.
Nedan finns streckfördelningen samt sannolikheten i respektive match. För att räkna ut sannolikheten för respektive tecken i vald match plockar jag medeloddsen från oddsportal som jag sedan konverterar till sannolikhet, se t.ex. detta inlägg för hur.
Det kan vara vettigt att studera oddssvängningar efter startelvorna släppts. Svängningarna bör indikera vilka elvor som används.
I have had some time off during the Christmas holidays and therefore time to share a few bets. The analysis in Chelsea vs West Ham was a big success and I had quite a few readers on that post. On Twitter I have had weaker results. The over 2.75 bet in Wolves vs Brentford resulted in a half win, but Manchester City -2 (at home to Burnley) resulted in a disaster and over 2.75 in Tottenham – Manchester United could be seen as a fiasco after 0-0. However, United should have scored at least once in the first half, and if that had happened the game would probably opened up.
Well, it is time for a few new betting suggestions from England and Australia! Read and enjoy.
Bet 1: Derby County – Leeds United: Derby -1 at 1.92
Derby County have one of the stronger teams in the Championship and after a very disappointing away loss to tomorrow night’s opponents (in late November, Leeds got 2-0 at home and Derby failed to get a single shot on target). Since then, Derby have managed to get things together again. They have convincing wins at home to Brighton (3-0) and away to Birmingham on Boxing Day (4-0), an unfortunate 2-2 draw against Norwich, and a 2-0 defeat away to top contenders Middlesbrough.
Leeds United, on the other hand, have only managed to obtain one point in the four games after their win against Derby. With all the problems in and around the club I can’t see them get anything out of the game tomorrow night. Brazilian Adryan is believed to return to the starting eleven after been ruled out on boxing day.
I cannot see anything else than an easy home win here and have placed a -1 Asian Handicap bet on Derby. I got 1.92 at MarathonBet, but if you don’t have an account there (or perhaps is limited) I recommend 1.53 for the Derby -0.5 bet at Bet365 and/or 1.86 for a Derby -1 bet at Pinnacle Sports.
Bet 2: Ipswich Town – Charlton Athletic: Ipswich -1 at 2.10
Ipswich Town are doing extremely well at the moment. They sit second in the table and they are the best home team in the league (W8-D2-L1). They have four wins in their last five (including away to Charlton) and come from an impressive 4-2 win away to Brentford and a 2-0 victory at home to Middlesbrough.
Charlton Athletic are not bad. In their last game they got 1-1 at home to Cardiff, despite being one man down for about an hour. Away from home they have drawn six of eleven games (W2-D6-L3), and are hard to beat. However, the Ipswich team is showing a lot of character and I am going for the tough -1 Asian Handicap line. Read a preview here.
I got 2.10 from MarathonBet for the Asian Handicap -1 bet. You can get 1.60 for the straight home win at Bet365 and 2.02 for the -1 line. I believe that this offer some value.
Bet 3: Western Sydney Wanderers – Central Coast Mariners: Sydney -0.75 at 2.27
Tomi Juric
During the Christmas holidays I have watched some football from Australia. Western Sydney Wanderers have not been able to combine the Asian Champions League (who they surprisingly won!), the FIFA Club World Cup and league football. Now they have time to focus on the league and they really need to start winning games after only three points in ten games. I saw their last loss away to Wellington Phoenix (1-0), and in that game they played well and were extremely unlucky to get nothing out (read and watch highlights here). Now they face a much weaker team and I believe that they will start a winning streak. It could be worthy checking the starting line ups. Star striker Tomi Juric is reported to leave the club, and he is important for Western Sydney.
Central Coast Mariners have eight points in twelve games (W1-D5-L6) and away from home they have four drawn games and two losses in six games. In their last encounter they got a 3-3 draw at home to Brisbane Roar and did not impress defensively. I believe that they hold much less quality than Sydney Wanderers and that the price is too much influenced by Sydney’s awful league stats.
I have taken Sydney -0.75 at 2.27 (Pinnacle Sports). The current price is 2.30 and other bookies offer prices around 2.20-2.25.
Bet 4: West Ham United – West Bromwich Albion: West Ham -0.75 at 2.14
West Ham United are doing extremely well and after two tough games against Chelsea and Arsenal I strongly believe that will get a victory again against a rather weak West Bromwich Albion.
I got 2.14 for the -0.75 Asian Handicap bet (Pinnacle Sports). The current price is 2.11 and I think that prices above 2.05 are worth to take.
Här kommer streck- och sannolikhetsfördelningen för Stryktipset söndagen den 28 december 2014. Sannolikhetsberäkningarna baseras på medeloddsen från flera spelbolag på oddsportal.com. Bäst spelvärde verkar vi ha Sunderland och Crystal Palace.
Nedan finns streckfördelningen samt sannolikheten i respektive match. För att räkna ut sannolikheten för respektive tecken i vald match plockar jag medeloddsen från oddsportal som jag sedan konverterar till sannolikhet, se t.ex. detta inlägg för hur.
Lite tankar
Manchester City bara vinner och jag har spelat City -2 (AH). 87% på ettan är för mig inget problem. Jag inbillar mig att Burnley förlorar denna match under dagens omständigheter nitton gånger av tjugo…
-> Man City -2 (1.75). Will Burnley put out their best team? If not Man City -2 is just perfect, otherwise decent.
Queens Park Rangers är brutalt överstreckade. I en match som egentligen kan gå hur som helst ligger alltså 62% av strecken på ettan. Finns inget annat val än att spela x2. Ett intressant faktum är att när QPR bara gjort det första målet i matchen en gång de senaste tio matcherna mot de sämst rankade lagen i ligan!
Aston Villa är också ordentligt överstreckade. Dock imponerade inte Sunderland på annandagen och här har jag svårt att välja sida. Utgångskrysset är för mig givet och frågan är om man ska lämna det ensamt…
Andra överstreckade lag i Premier League är också Hull och Stoke. Här har jag dock känsla för ettorna just nu och lutar mig nog mot dem, men jag tror absolut inte att jag lämnar dem ensamma.
I Championship ser det ut som Cardiff har tappat lite fart igen. Senast fick de bara 1-1 borta mot Charlton trots att de var en man mer större delen av matchen. De plockar dock flest poäng hemma (sju vinster på elva matcher, W7-D1-L3) och slog faktiskt Watford borta nyligen. Å andra sidan är Watford ett av de bättre bortalagen i ligan (W5-D2-L4). Statistiken talar inte för ett kryss, men endast 25% är frestande. Jag kan inte bestämma mig här…
Wolverhampton – Brentford känns också den mycket svår. Brentford gör en hel del mål just nu och slog Wolves hemma med 4-0. Borta har man (W5-D1-L5). Jag tror mest på Wolves här, men tar nog 1-2. Funderar också starkt på ett oddsspel på över 2.75 mål till dryga två gånger pengarna.
Bolton har ryckt upp sig ordentligt med Neil Lennon som manager och trots usel bortastatistik (W2-D2-L7) är jag inne på x2 eller enkeltvåan här. Vad kan firma Gudjohnsen/Heskeyhitta på idag?
It is time for a rare comeback, a blog post about looking at the data with a betting purpose. The early Boxing Day game is a London derby between two teams that have impressed heavily so far. Chelsea currently top the table and they will face West Ham, who sit nicely in fourth position at the moment.
Chelsea at home
Chelsea FC have won almost everything this season and they look unbeatable, especially at Stamford Bridge. Now they will be tested a bit with a game against high-flying West Ham United. Here are some of the data in Chelsea’s home games so far in the 2014/2015 season of Premier League.
Data from Chelsea’s home games so far in Premier League. Data are taken from liveresultat.se.
Chelsea have eight wins in eight home games and with a goal difference of two in six of them. With only three conceded goals a first guess could be that the opponents didn’t have much of the ball at all and that they haven’t been able to create any chances. This is not completely true. In four games the away teams have managed to create ten or more chances (I think that liveresultat.se mark all shots – on target/off target/blocked – as chances) and in two games the away teams (Arsenal and Tottenham) have had more possession of the ball than Chelsea. What is much more striking is the Shots on target column. The away teams have only had eleven shots on targets in the eight games, making an average of 1.375 shots on target per game! The ’shoots on taget’-metric is actually used by many football scientists and data bloggers to model and predict football goal scoring results. Take a look at this very interesting blog.
Looking at Chelsea’s data alone a home win looks very possible and the prices are also low for a Chelsea victory. At the moment the bookies pay around 1.33 for the home win and around 2.00 for Chelsea at the -1.5 Asian Handicap line (at the moment Bet365 is best with 2.02).
West Ham away
West Ham have three wins, three drawn games, and two losses away from home so far in the 2014/2015 season. Moreover, they have scored (and conceded) in all eight games.
The wins have come against teams that are expected to finish in the lower regions of the table, the drawn games against teams expected to finish mid-table, and the losses against expected top six/seven-teams. Actually, West Ham have had extremely hard to get anything out of away games to elite teams lately. Last season West Ham only managed to beat Tottenham of the seven top clubs. They also got a 0-0 draw away to Chelsea, but according to the stats there seems to have been some luck involved there.
It is perhaps not fair to use stats from last season for West Ham. They seem to be another team now, but at the same time, the only losses this season have come to Manchester United and Everton. Is West Ham’s decent away record this season mostly thanks to the schedule? Will they start losing now when they will visit better teams?
Prediction: Chelsea and under
Despite West Ham’s fantastic start of the season I see value in Chelsea here. I don’t believe that Chelsea will allow West Ham to create high quality chances. I am a bit scared of the 1-0 and 2-1 victories however and I am taking the lower line, Chelsea -1 (AH) at 1.50.
West Ham’s stats away from home have affected the goal line prices. At the moment, under 3.0 goals (Asian line) can be taken at 1.88 and I take a small one on that. Chelsea have only scored more than three goals in one of the eight home games in Premier League and as long as West Ham doesn’t score, under 3.0 seems to posses value.
It could be a good idea to bet on 2-0 (Bet365 offers 7.50 at the moment and the prices differ between 5.30 and 8.00). I stick to Chelsea -1 and under 3.0 though.
Bet 1: Chelsea -1 at 1.50 (Pinnacle Sports). Medium wager.
Bet 2: Under 3.0 goals at 1.88 (Pinnacle Sports). Small wager.
Let’s hope that John Terry can help us to get 2-0 (or otherwise 1-0 or 3-0) for Chelsea.
Year 2014 is coming to an end and for the first time in fourteen years Sweden has had a team (Malmö FF) in the group stage of UEFA Champions League. There is still a lot to do, but could this year be the start of something great or will it (perhaps more likely) take years until the next Swedish team plays in the group stage of Champions League again? I like to watch and cheer for Swedish teams in Europe (I am one of those (melodramatic) fools that like all Swedish teams in Europe) and I don’t want to wait. So, until it happens again I rewinded the (Youtube) tape and took a look at the splendid IFK Göteborg (Gothenburg) team from the 1994-1995 Champions League season.
In the 1980’s and early 1990’s IFK Göteborg had very strong teams and between 1982-1993 they won the UEFA Cup twice, reached the semi finals of the European Cup/UEFA Champions League twice (if you could call the 1992/1993 season as a semi final, there were really none that season) and also reached the quarter finals twice. I remember much of this fantastic years for the club, but my absolute strongest memory were from my mid teens and the 1994-1995 season where IFK Göteborg managed to win an impossible Champions League group with Barcelona, Machester United and Galatasaray.
This was of course a great surprise, but at the same time, IFK Göteborg had seven players in the Swedish 1994 World Cup squad, including Magnus Erlingmark. A lot of credit must also be given to the manager, Roger Gustafsson.
Manchester United 4 – 2 IFK Göteborg
IFK Göteborg started with a very hard away game in Manchester. They got a dream start with a Stefan Pettersson goal after 27 minutes, and after 2-1 down they got back into the game after a Stefan Rehn (Superstar) back-heel goal. However, Man United finally got away with a 4-2 win and no-one thought that IFK Göteborg could stand a chance in the group…
IFK Göteborg 2 – 1 Barcelona
The first home game was against famous FC Barcelona and after a 2-1 win (goals from Magnus Erlingmark and Jesper Blomqvist) in Gothenborg the most optimistic supporters started to believe in something big.
IFK Göteborg 1 – 0 Galatasaray
After another Magnus Erlingmark goal, IFK Göteborg had four points in three matches (this was before a win was earned with three points) and the chances to qualify for the next round were suddenly not totally out of reach. But with two away games and a home game to Manchester United to go, few still thought that the Swedish team could stand a chance against Barcelona and Manchester United.
Galatasaray 0 – 1 IFK Göteborg
Magnus Erlingmark headed the only goal again and IFK Göteborg got a very convincing victory in a very hard away game. With two games to go they had three wins in four games and a very good opportunity to qualify for the next Champions League round. The two remaining games were tough ones though.
IFK Göteborg 3 – 1 Manchester United
IFK Göteborg 3. Manchester United 1. Wow! Jesper Blomqvist was a star in Gothenburg and Sweden before this game, but after one goal, one assist, and one created penalty he had also made a big name of himself in Europe. The IFK Göteborg supporters couldn’t choose a better game for their banner announcing that Giggs is talk Blomqvist is action!
With one game to go IFK Göteborg had not only qualified for the next round. They were already group winners before FC Barcelona, Manchester United, and Galatasaray! Read about the game here (in Swedish).
Barcelona 1 – 1 IFK Göteborg
Away to FC Barcelona, who had a lot to play for, IFK Göteborg couldn’t get anything, could they? Well, despite that they didn’t have much to play for they managed to get a 1-1 draw at Camp Nou.
Quarter Final: A very close one against Bayern Munich
The quarter final was against Bayern Munich and after 0-0 in Germany, Bayern Munich managed to reach the semi final (with the away goal rule) after 2-2 in Gothenburg.
Här kommer streckfördelningen och sannolikhetsfördelningen för Europatipset söndagen den 21 december 2014. Sannolikhetsberäkningarna baseras på medeloddsen från flera spelbolag på oddsportal.com. Som vanligt på Europatipset är favoriterna extremt överstreckade.
Nedan finns streckfördelningen samt sannolikheten i respektive match. För att räkna ut sannolikheten för respektive tecken i vald match plockar jag medeloddsen från oddsportal som jag sedan konverterar till sannolikhet, se t.ex. detta inlägg för hur.
Enjoy!
Streck- och sannolikhetsfördelning på Europatipset 2014-12-21.
Fortfarande ont om tid för bloggeriet just nu, men här kommer streckfördelningen och sannolikhetsfördelningen för Stryktipset vecka 51. Sannolikhetsberäkningarna baseras på medeloddsen från flera spelbolag på oddsportal.com. Bäst värde denna vecka tycker jag nog Middlesbrough har.
I bilden nedan finns streckfördelningen samt sannolikheten i respektive match. För att räkna ut sannolikheten för respektive tecken i vald match plockar jag medeloddsen från oddsportal som jag sedan konverterar till sannolikhet, se t.ex. detta inlägg för hur.
Jämför man strikt streckfördelningen med sannolikheter baserade på spelbolagens odds finns det supervärde i Leicester och Brighton. Spontant känns det inte som att jag vill gå emot West Ham dock. Har också spelat West Ham asiatiskt handikapp -0.75 (till 1.85 på Bet365 tidigare i veckan). Denna match blir svår att ta ställning till på Stryktipset…
Allra bäst spelvärde i veckans stryktipsomgång tycker jag nog Middlesbrough har. Ipswich är bra, men Boro är kanske bäst i Championship. Jag ryggade Calle Torn och spelade Middlesbrough +0 (DnB) tidigare i veckan. Det blir tvåa eller x2 för mig här.
Till sist ska man nog ha i åtanke att Manchester United inte spelat särskilt bra på slutet trots att resultaten blivit bättre. Med en annan målvakt hade det aldrig gått. Jag tar nog x2 i match 1, men har inte helt bestämt mig ännu. Skade/avstängningsläget ser dock inte bra ut för Aston Villa. De har Alan Hutton, Tom Cleverley och Kieran Richardson avstängda. Vidare är Marcos Rojo och framförallt Angel Di Maria tydligen skadefria i United och till sist har United väldig plusstatistik på Aston Villa i inbördes möten.
Jag har väldigt ont om tid för bloggeriet just nu, men här kommer streckfördelningen och sannolikhetsfördelningen för Stryktipset vecka 50. Sannolikhetsberäkningarna baseras på medeloddsen från flera spelbolag på oddsportal.com.
I bilden nedan finns streckfördelningen samt sannolikheten i respektive match. För att räkna ut sannolikheten för respektive tecken i vald match plockar jag medeloddsen från oddsportal som jag sedan konverterar till sannolikhet, se t.ex. detta inlägg för hur.
Spontant ser det ut som att det finns värde i att gå emot Chelsea och Manchester City, men jag tror helt enkelt de bara vinner och spikar. Supervärdet i Fulham hugger jag dock.
