Olympique de Marseille finished second in Ligue 1 last season and will try to fight for the title together with PSG and perhaps Monaco and Lyon this season. They started well with a 3-1 win at home to EA Guingamp, but all the Marseille goals came early and – more importantly – they played very sloppy in the defence. They discussed this in Eurotalk and both Thomas Wilbacher and Kalle Karlsson agreed on that their defence leaked extremely and that talented and highly valued defender Nicolas N’Koulou was a catastrophe. Listen below (around 1:50:00).
Marseille have a strong offensive squad with players like Gignac, the Ayew brothers, Valbuena, and new signing Payet.
Giannelli Imbula
Moreover, the powerful defensive midfielder Imbula from Guingamp seems to be a very good signing. He was the best player in the second division last season and was linked with Arsenal earlier this summer.
Marseille were not involved in many goal-rich battles last season but there might be more Marseille goals from now on. I certainly hope so since I place early bets on over 2.5 goals in Marseille’s next three games. Due to the statistics from the last season the prices for over 2.5 goals in their forthcoming games are high and will perhaps decrease if they continue to play more openly. I find good value in all three games at the moment.
Highlights from EA Guingamp v Olympique de Marseille can be seen below. You should especially observe the sloppy defensive play from Marseille in a few situations, e.g. Diawara’s extremely clumsy tackle that led to a Guingamp penalty (around 2:30 minutes in) and from N’Koulou before the goal (around 3:05). Also observe the wonderful piece from Valbuena that nearly resulted in a super goal (around 2:00 in).
Bet 1: Saturday, 17 Aug 2013, Marseille vs Evian TG over 2.5 goals at 2.00 (Bwin). 1 unit.
Bet 2: Saturday, 24 Aug 2013, Valenciennes vs Marseille over 2.5 goals at 2.20 (Bwin). 1.5 units.
Bet 3: Sunday, 01 Sep 2013, Marseille vs Monaco over 2.5 goals at 2.18 (Marathonbet). 1 unit.
I will take another bet in Division 2 Södra Götaland today. Torns IF from Stångby just outside Lund are in great shape. They won almost everything before the summer break and continued with an impressive win against Lindsdals IF after the break. Now they top the table and I believe that they will do so also after the derby game away to GIF Nike from Lomma.
Also Nike showed good form before the break, but they lost against Karlskrona last week. For me Torns IF should be the favourites here, but the bookies predict a very even game.
I cannot resist betting on Torn. Their form is brilliant and when we get 2.45 for the away win it is simply too good. I place my own home made handicap bet to cover up for the draw since I do not believe that Torns IF will lose. Two units are placed altogether. I bet with one to four units per game, but seldom with three and only once or twice a year with four.
Bet 1: GIF Nike – Torns IF: Torn win at 2.45 (Nordicbet). 1 unit.
Bet 2: GIF Nike – Torns IF: Torn win or draw at 1.50 (Bet365). 1 unit.
Result: 1-1 after a very late Nike equaliser. Thus -0.5 units
Lindsdals IF – BW90
I also take an early bet on Lindsdals IF at home to BW90. Lindsdal have done great lately and should be contending in the very top of the table. I believe that they have a great chance on Saturday and take 1.5 units on a home win.
Bet 3: Lindsdals IF – BW90: Lindsdal win at 1.83 (Nordicbet). 1.5 units.
Result: 4-0. Thus +1.245 units
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I will probably be away from the blog for a couple of days to support Team Highridge with Marcus Levin in Ranch Team Challenge at High Chapparal. Let us hope that Torns IF and Lindsdals IF make my visit even better…
Jag har tänkt skriva något om petningen av Kim Källström, men inte fått till några bra formuleringar och argument till varför Erik Hamréns val är helt obegripligt för mig. Som vanligt kan man lite på Simon Bank, han skriver allt det jag tänkte men inte fick till.
Kim Källström
Så här, för mig är Kim Källström en av Sveriges bästa spelare i nästan varje landskamp. Han gör oerhört mycket poäng i landslaget, är trygg med bollen, tar nästan aldrig fel beslut i defensiven och spelar svårt där man ska göra det, på offensiv planhalva.
Han har varit petad i sitt klubblag några matcher, men det är väldigt tidigt på säsongen. Flera spelare är inte heller i säsong ännu. Argumentet med ’för lite speltid i klubblaget’ verkar vara totalt godtyckligt och ett sätt att slippa förklara sig. Ola Toivonen spelar inte i PSV eftersom han inte kritar på något nytt kontrakt men är med i landslagstruppen. Hur mycket har Johan Elmander spelat sista halvåret? Vill Hamrén ge mer plats åt Rasmus Elm? I så fall, säg det.
Kim Källström är en av spelarna som delar svenska folket. Jag tycker fortfarande han är vår näst bäste spelare och borde vara given i startelvan oavsett speltid i klubblaget.
Uttagningen av Adam Johansson
För övrigt måste jag hålla med alla som undrar över valet av Adam Johansson i truppen. Jag läser många blåvita supportrar ondgöra sig över Adam i Allsvenska matcher. Det börjar komma upp flera stycken intressanta svenska högerbackar. Ska man ha form som ett argument till trupputtagningar (och det ska man, men det är inte det enda) är inte Adam Johansson en man för landslaget. Ska man ha grundkompetens är han kanske det, men för mig känns exempelvis Martin Lorentzson och Emil Krafth bättre och intressantare. Johan Larsson är såklart också intressant. Jag gillar Adam Johansson, men i år har han inte varit speciellt bra. Då är det någonstans ett hån att plocka med honom.
Ta tillbaka Kim illa kvickt är du snäll Erik Hamrén. Kim Källström behövs fortfarande extremt mycket i landslaget!
Let us try to get a new football snowball rolling. I take at maximum one game each day and will pick out 40% of the profit after each bet. With this strategy the snowball will not accumulate as quickly as if you accumulate the complete win and only cash out money after a fixed number of bets (or some similar strategy). However, it is more safe in the sense that you will cash out some money each round.
Why do I like the snowball betting strategy? First of all, it is a possible way to have the opportunity to get a large win from a small initial wager. Second, I really enjoy looking for bets that ’should not fail’. Odds value is of course important as always, but – for me – it is most important to survive each round and have fun as long as possibly. When doing snowballs with a strict plan you are way more likely to get some money out of it than doing a accumulator with many bets the very same day. Moreover, when doing accumulators it is very hard to get value in your bet since you need to take bets from the same bookie.
This is a football snowball. It is perhaps a better strategy to mix sports to get the best bet each day, but I restrict to football to narrow down the search for games. I ran a tennis snowball earlier.
Football snowball – day 1
My first bet is St Patrick’s Athletic to beat Drogheda United in the top league in Ireland. St Patrick top the league and I hope and think that they will start a winning streak after their win against Cork City last week. Before that they had a few games without a win but that was against rather tough opponents. Drogheda sit in eighth position in the league after way too many drawn games (10 in 21 games and 6 in 11 away games). Because of the number of drawn games for the away team I play it very safe today and only pick the Asian +0 line (draw no bet, DnB). Bet365 offers the best price (1.17) I’ve found for this bet. The price is perhaps too low for a starting bet, but – for me – the main task in snowball betting is not to lose and have fun as long as possible!
Game previews may be found here or at St Patrick’s home page.
Bet 1: 1 unit on St Patrick’s Athletic DnB at 1.17 (Bet365)
Result: 0-0 => Push. 1 unit to next day.
Football snowball – day 2
Drogheda managed to get 0-0 and another draw, which resulted in a push for my first bet. Thus, still 1 unit to be placed for day 2.
The pick today is taken from Lithuania(!) and is purely based on stats. FK Atlantas host FK Šiauliai and I cannot see the away team go home with any points here. Atlantas is one of the better teams in the league. Šiauliai have six consecutive losses. Their last win was against Tauras Taurage, who only have four points in eighteen games. Many bookies offer 1.40 for an Atlantas win and that is good for me. Let us get our football snowball rolling!
Bet 2: 1 unit on Atlantas to win at 1.40 (Unibet)
Result: 3-0 => +0.40 units. Cash out 0.16 units. 1.24 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.16 units
Football snowball – day 3
Kopparberg/Göteborg FC (women) should be a better team than Piteå and they also defeated Piteå away with 2-0. After a sl0w start of the season Kopparberg got things together before the Euro break and I think they will continue with a win today. Bet365 offers 1.25 and that is good enough for me. Kopparberg HT/FT is also an interesting bet with good price from BetVictor (1.80).
Bet 3: 1.24 units on Kopparberg/Göteborg FC to win at 1.25 (Bet365)
Result: 1-0 => +0.31 units. Cash out 0.12 units. 1.43 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.28 units
Football snowball – day 4
Djurgårdens IF play Helsingborgs IF today. Helsingborg have scored in 38(!) consecutive games in Allsvenskan and I think that they will score again today. MarathonBet offers Asian lines on team goals and I take Helsingborg over 1.0 goals.
Bet 4: 1.43 units on Helsingborg over 1.0 goals (Asian) at 1.32 (MarathonBet)
Result: 2-1 => push. 1.43 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.28 units
Football snowball – day 5
My football snowball does not melt, but it rolls very very slowly. Only a push yesterday since Helsingborg only managed to score once. I am very happy with that though. Djurgården is my team.
Today I go back to Damallsvenskan. The difference between top and bottom is huge in this league and tomorrow LDB FC Malmö, second in the table with 24 points in 11 games (7-3-1) will play Sunnanå SK (0-3-8). The odds for a home win is around 1.03 and of course nothing to bet at. MarathonBet offers HT/FT at 1.24, which I think is good. Malmö should win this easily. Sunnanå struggle to get together a proper team. Read more here.
Bet 5: 1.43 units on Malmö HT/FT at 1.24 (MarathonBet)
Result: 1-0/4-0 => +0.34 units. Cash out 0.14 units. 1.63 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.42 units
Football snowball – day 6
Time to level up with a bet with a slightly higher odds. Örebro SK seem to be the best team in Superettan. Today they face Jönköping Södra and I think that the prices for a home win are too high. The reason for the high prices is probably caused by the game in Jönköping where J. Södra won with 2-0. However, Örebro have 8-0-0 at home and I believe that they will continue winning today. Be aware that they have a newly placed artificial turf and Örebro. See Örebro’s homepage for Youtube interviews with players and coaches.
In Örebro William Atashkadeh is back in the squad. J. Södra have three new players on loan in the squad. Manager Mats Gren says that they might rotate their squad a bit now due to many games in short time.
Bet 6: 1.63 units on Örebro to win at 1.507 (Pinnacle Sports)
Result: 3-1 => +0.83 units. Cash out 0.34 units. 2.12 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.76 units
Football snowball – day 7
Today I think that VfB Stuttgart should win at home to Botev Plovdiv. The game in Bulgaria finished 1-1 so the Germans really have to go for a win. Let us hope I am right here, my feeling wasn’t good after I placed the bet and perhaps I was too hasty. Some reasons for my bad feeling can be found here. Botev Plovdiv was the better side in Bulgaria. Top goalscorer Vedad Ibisevic is in doubt for Stuttgart. The game is not played in Stuttgart’s usual home ground Merceders-Benz Arena due to a Robbie Williams concert!
Bet 7: 2.12 units on VfB Stuttgart to win at 1.262 (Pinnacle Sports)
Result: 0-0 => meltdown. Extremely bad pick and I should of course have bought me out before the game. The bet did not feel right and in that case it is better to get out as quick as possible.
Total results: Seven bets with four winners and two pushes resulted in a total loss of 0.24 units.
Well, that was the last update of the post. I will come back with new football snowballs shortly.
Jag säger som jag och min gamla kompis som jag delade lägenhet med under två år sa:
Folk är inte så dumma som man kan tro. De är dummare!
Planerna på ett LSS-boende för personer med autism och Downs syndrom gillas inte av de boende i området. Jag blir oerhört provocerad av sådant. Hur resonerar man då?
De vill alltså inte få in ett gruppboende för människor i stort behov av hjälp. Vad är det för fel på människor? Vad är det för människosyn? Vad är det för brist på medmänsklighet?
Helt obegripligt!
Till höger klistrar jag in utdraget ur protestbreven som också presenteras i Aftonbladet.
Borde skriva långt och mycket och smart och initierat. Borde ge exempel på vad detta egentligen innebär. Borde, borde, borde…
Men orkar inte kommentera mer. Blir så trött.
Overplayer (och andra) kommenterade bra på Twitter (se nedan). Det känns bra att det åtminstone finns människor som har en människosyn jag gillar. Det ger mig hopp om mänskligheten.
Vi bor i ett land med vidrig människosyn, Vad är det för människosyn ni ger era barn? skäms era jävla underspelare! http://t.co/nWwPJZGcZ1
I think that Kelvin Wilson should be off the pith when the goal came and Celtic should be very happy with 1-0 at home to Elfsborg in the first leg of the Champions League qualification fixture. Swedish media personalities seem happy with the result, but I think an away goal is crucial in a game like this. Good result for Celtic. Descent result for Elfsborg who still have a chance at home on their artificial grass.
Elfsborg played well in the first half and Celtic had problems to find good opportunities. Of course they created some chances, but Anders Svensson also had a shoot in the crossbar. In the second half Elfsborg played it long way too much and never got time to rest with the ball. If you are the slightly weaker side you need to try to keep the ball for a while, but Elfsborg did not manage to do that. And finally got Celtic 1-0. I think it was a big tactical miss by the Elfsborg coaching staff and/or players to play the long ball every time.
Kelvin Wilson should have been sent off
Kelvin Wilson should have been sent off before the goal.
BUT, for me Celtic should have played with ten men when the goal came. A couple of minutes earlier Kelvin Wilson deliberately hit Mohammed Bangura in the face. I’m not sure if the assistant referee missed the situation, it seems like he didn’t in the replays, but in ether case that was an obvious red card. For me it is totally unbelievable that a grown up man and a professional football player behaves like that.
If I was a coach or team-mate to Wilson I would be furious. He risks the club’s participation in the group stage of Champions League. I know, everything goes so fast and Wilson didn’t think properly in that situation, but a footballer should be trained to always behave in situations like that. Celtic were saved by the referees in that situation and were very lucky. Now they have the advantage when the second leg starts in a week from now.
Bangura further irked the home fans when he went to ground after a harmless-looking tussle with Wilson on the touchline with Portuguese referee Manuel Se Douda unimpressed.
For me that viewpoint is totally unaccepted. The Scots should focus on the more that stupid behaviour by Kelvin Wilson than complaining that Mo Bangura fell to the ground easily. That is a red card everywhere except the British Islands.
Diving Celtic players
By the way. Overall I must say that the Celtic players dived incredibly much. The myth that British players never dive was once again revealed. As everybody else, British players look for opportunities to fall down easily and get advantages.
En efter en erkänner cyklisterna från nittiotalet och dessförinnan att de dopat sig under långa perioder av sina karriärer. Nu är det Erik Zabel som lättar sitt hjärta
Också Erik Zabel var superdopad!
Erik Zabel, som 2007 sa att han endast experimenterat med EPO under en vecka, erkänner att han dopat sig långt mycket mer än vad som tidigare kommit ut. Jag gissar att mobben drar igång igen och kritiserar cyklingen och att alla är dopade. Kommentarerna på Aftonbladets text av fallet är än så länge bara två. Kalla mig för idiot, det har jag ingenting emot, men är inte säker på att cykel idag är fusksporten nummer ett som Marcus Eriksson Rosenström (toppkommentator såklart) skriver.
Min känsla är att cykelsporten tagit tag i problemen bra mycket mer än andra. Tyvärr finns en hel del av de gamla kvar inom sporten och gör den dels ifrågasatt, dels kanske fortfarande lite smutsig. För att helt, eller åtminstone så långt det är möjligt, bli fritt problemet måste dessa element bort.
MEN, jag tror verkligen att cykelsporten är väldigt mycket renare idag än för bara tio år sedan. Sporten är inte som förut. Du ser väldigt sällan extrema och omänskliga prestationer. I någon av de tre stora tourerna ser du mer sällan hur någon bara exploderar över en enda dag och tar en etappseger för att sedan falla tillbaka och inte visa något under resten av touren. Jag tror på riktigt att cykelsporten är renare än någonsin. Det betyder inte att den är ren, men renare. Framförallt ser du inte cyklister fullproppade med nytt blod längre. Då är det alldeles för stor risk att åka dit. Nu är nästa steg att ändra attityden mot allt som ligger i gråzonen också. Allt som ligger där borde vara självklart att undvika, så verkar det absolut inte vara idag.
Varför är det förresten så att friidrotten alltid klarar sina extrema dopingskandaler bättre än cyklingen?
Att Erik Zabel nu erkänner omfattande dopning är bra. Det var väldigt få cyklister på yttersta nivå som var rena under 90-talet. Det är lika bra att fortsätta rensa ut bort med dem från sporten, in med nytt blod 😉 och ändra därmed attityden hos alla inblandade. Jag är möjligen naiv, men jag tror fortfarande att vi kan komma till en nästan dopingfri cykelsport i synnerhet och idrott i allmänhet. Det är dock en väldigt lång väg kvar att vandra.
Mitt inlägg om Johan Bertilsson och hans kritik av KFF:s tränare Nanne Bergstrand fick en himla massa läsare och lite reaktioner. Jag står för vad jag skrev. En spelare tjänar aldrig (eller åtminstone väldigt väldigt sällan) på att öppet kritisera tränare, före detta tränare, medspelare eller någon annan inom branschen. Såklart väldigt tråkigt, men så är det tror jag. Det finns spelare som gör sig omöjliga i klubben för att få lämna, och det kanske fungerar ibland, men oftare tror jag att det skapar problem i slutändan.
KFF:s klubbdirektör Svante Samuelsson som spelare i Brann.
Jag upptäckte nyss att Svante Samuelsson, klubbdirektör i KFF och före detta spelare, svarar väldigt avmätt på kritiken med
– Det är upp till varje spelare att ha sina synpunkter.
– Det är lite så i elitfotbollen. När Johan hamnade i situationen att han inte fick spela så blir det missnöje.
– Man kanske vill ta de diskussionerna internt. Men varje enskild spelare får avgöra om det är rätt sätt att hantera det.
