After Christmas bets

I have had some time off during the Christmas holidays and therefore time to share a few bets. The analysis in Chelsea vs West Ham was a big success and I had quite a few readers on that post. On Twitter I have had weaker results. The over 2.75 bet in Wolves vs Brentford resulted in a half win, but Manchester City -2 (at home to Burnley) resulted in a disaster and over 2.75 in Tottenham – Manchester United could be seen as a fiasco after 0-0. However, United should have scored at least once in the first half, and if that had happened the game would probably opened up.

Well, it is time for a few new betting suggestions from England and Australia! Read and enjoy.

Bet 1: Derby County – Leeds United: Derby -1 at 1.92

Derby County have one of the stronger teams in the Championship and after a very disappointing away loss to tomorrow night’s opponents (in late November, Leeds got 2-0 at home and Derby failed to get a single shot on target). Since then, Derby have managed to get things together again. They have convincing wins at home to Brighton (3-0) and away to Birmingham on Boxing Day (4-0), an unfortunate 2-2 draw against Norwich, and a 2-0 defeat away to top contenders Middlesbrough.

Leeds United, on the other hand, have only managed to obtain one point in the four games after their win against Derby. With all the problems in and around the club I can’t see them get anything out of the game tomorrow night. Brazilian Adryan is believed to return to the starting eleven after been ruled out on boxing day.

I cannot see anything else than an easy home win here and have placed a -1 Asian Handicap bet on Derby. I got 1.92 at MarathonBet, but if you don’t have an account there (or perhaps is limited) I recommend 1.53 for the Derby -0.5 bet at Bet365 and/or 1.86 for a Derby -1 bet at Pinnacle Sports.

Bet 2: Ipswich Town – Charlton Athletic: Ipswich -1 at 2.10

Ipswich Town are doing extremely well at the moment. They sit second in the table and they are the best home team in the league (W8-D2-L1). They have four wins in their last five (including away to Charlton) and come from an impressive 4-2 win away to Brentford and a 2-0 victory at home to Middlesbrough.

Charlton Athletic are not bad. In their last game they got 1-1 at home to Cardiff, despite being one man down for about an hour. Away from home they have drawn six of eleven games (W2-D6-L3), and are hard to beat. However, the Ipswich team is showing a lot of character and I am going for the tough -1 Asian Handicap line. Read a preview here.

I got 2.10 from MarathonBet for the Asian Handicap -1 bet. You can get 1.60 for the straight home win at Bet365 and 2.02 for the -1 line. I believe that this offer some value.

Bet 3: Western Sydney Wanderers – Central Coast Mariners: Sydney -0.75 at 2.27

bet_tomi_juric
Tomi Juric

During the Christmas holidays I have watched some football from Australia. Western Sydney Wanderers have not been able to combine the Asian Champions League (who they surprisingly won!), the FIFA Club World Cup and league football. Now they have time to focus on the league and they really need to start winning games after only three points in ten games. I saw their last loss away to Wellington Phoenix (1-0), and in that game they played well and were extremely unlucky to get nothing out (read and watch highlights here). Now they face a much weaker team and I believe that they will start a winning streak. It could be worthy checking the starting line ups. Star striker Tomi Juric is reported to leave the club, and he is important for Western Sydney.

Central Coast Mariners have eight points in twelve games (W1-D5-L6) and away from home they have four drawn games and two losses in six games. In their last encounter they got a 3-3 draw at home to Brisbane Roar and did not impress defensively. I believe that they hold much less quality than Sydney Wanderers and that the price is too much influenced by Sydney’s awful league stats.

I have taken Sydney -0.75 at 2.27 (Pinnacle Sports). The current price is 2.30 and other bookies offer prices around 2.20-2.25.

Bet 4: West Ham United – West Bromwich Albion: West Ham -0.75 at 2.14

West Ham United are doing extremely well and after two tough games against Chelsea and Arsenal I strongly believe that will get a victory again against a rather weak West Bromwich Albion.

I got 2.14 for the -0.75 Asian Handicap bet (Pinnacle Sports). The current price is 2.11 and I think that prices above 2.05 are worth to take.

bet_west_ham_simpsons

Chelsea – West Ham: Betting with a look at the data

It is time for a rare comeback, a blog post about looking at the data with a betting purpose. The early Boxing Day game is a London derby between two teams that have impressed heavily so far. Chelsea currently top the table and they will face West Ham, who sit nicely in fourth position at the moment.

Chelsea at home

Chelsea FC have won almost everything this season and they look unbeatable, especially at Stamford Bridge. Now they will be tested a bit with a game against high-flying West Ham United. Here are some of the data in Chelsea’s home games so far in the 2014/2015 season of Premier League.

Data from Chelsea’s home games so far in Premier League. Data are taken from liveresultat.se.

Chelsea have eight wins in eight home games and with a goal difference of two in six of them. With only three conceded goals a first guess could be that the opponents didn’t have much of the ball at all and that they haven’t been able to create any chances. This is not completely true. In four games the away teams have managed to create ten or more chances (I think that liveresultat.se mark all shots – on target/off target/blocked – as chances) and in two games the away teams (Arsenal and Tottenham) have had more possession of the ball than Chelsea. What is much more striking is the Shots on target column. The away teams have only had eleven shots on targets in the eight games, making an average of 1.375 shots on target per game! The ‘shoots on taget’-metric is actually used by many football scientists and data bloggers to model and predict football goal scoring results. Take a look at this very interesting blog.

Looking at Chelsea’s data alone a home win looks very possible and the prices are also low for a Chelsea victory. At the moment the bookies pay around 1.33 for the home win and around 2.00 for Chelsea at the -1.5 Asian Handicap line (at the moment Bet365 is best with 2.02).

West Ham away

West Ham have three wins, three drawn games, and two losses away from home so far in the 2014/2015 season. Moreover, they have scored (and conceded) in all eight games.

westham_away_2014_12_26The wins have come against teams that are expected to finish in the lower regions of the table, the drawn games against teams expected to finish mid-table, and the losses against expected top six/seven-teams. Actually, West Ham have had extremely hard to get anything out of away games to elite teams lately. Last season West Ham only managed to beat Tottenham of the seven top clubs. They also got a 0-0 draw away to Chelsea, but according to the stats there seems to have been some luck involved there.

westham_away_2013_2014It is perhaps not fair to use stats from last season for West Ham. They seem to be another team now, but at the same time, the only losses this season have come to Manchester United and Everton. Is West Ham’s decent away record this season mostly thanks to the schedule? Will they start losing now when they will visit better teams?

Prediction: Chelsea and under

Despite West Ham’s fantastic start of the season I see value in Chelsea here. I don’t believe that Chelsea will allow West Ham to create high quality chances. I am a bit scared of the 1-0 and 2-1 victories however and I am taking the lower line, Chelsea -1 (AH) at 1.50.

West Ham’s stats away from home have affected the goal line prices. At the moment, under 3.0 goals (Asian line) can be taken at 1.88 and I take a small one on that. Chelsea have only scored more than three goals in one of the eight home games in Premier League and as long as West Ham doesn’t score, under 3.0 seems to posses value.

It could be a good idea to bet on 2-0 (Bet365 offers 7.50 at the moment and the prices differ between 5.30 and 8.00). I stick to Chelsea -1 and under 3.0 though.

Bet 1: Chelsea -1 at 1.50 (Pinnacle Sports). Medium wager.

Bet 2: Under 3.0 goals at 1.88 (Pinnacle Sports). Small wager.

Let’s hope that John Terry can help us to get 2-0 (or otherwise 1-0 or 3-0) for Chelsea.

 

The snowball – Continuation

Weeks ago I started a snowball just for fun. I took in-play bets on Bet365 and got wins every time. After a while, despite the very small initial wager, the snowball became rather big and now (September 22, 2013) I have survived 21 bets! I have written out the bets here, but continue with this new post now to ease the reading. The bets will be filled below, but let us first present the bets so far. Three bookies have been used. I will continue choosing bets from these three.

The status of the snowball before the bet on September 22. The new bets are presented below.
The status of the snowball before the bet on September 22. The new bets are presented below.

After each win I will cash out 60% of the win and add the rest to the ever increasing wager.

Snowball bet 22 – September 22 – Red Bull Salzburg

The snowball is big now and it is hard to place the bet on one bookie. Today I take Red Bull Salzburg. The main bet is placed on Salzburg -1 (Asian), but a smaller part is also placed on the straight win (or rather, the -0.5 bet).

Bet 1: Red Bull Salzburg – Wolfsberger FC: Salzburg -1 @1.26 (MarathonBet). 11.20 units

Bet 2: Red Bull Salzburg – Wolfsberger FC: Salzburg -0.5 @1.18 (Bet365) 4.01 units

Result: 2-2. Salzburg were 2-0 up and totally on top of Wolfsberger but managed to concede twice. Snowball melts…

Total cashed out: 20.99 times the initial wager

Two bets today

It is certainly time to post bets again. Yesterday I posted a few on Twitter with good results. At the moment I have placed two bets today, this post might be updated later.

Sunday bet 1

Hoffenheim vs B Mönchengladbach over 3.0 goals (Asian) at 2.24 (Pinnacle Sports)

Both teams have played four league games this season and all eight games have ended with over 2.5 goals. Seven of the eight games have ended in over 3.5 goals. Looking at these statistics alone I believe that 2.24 is very good for the over 3.0 bet.

I spend two units (of four) on over 3 goals.

RESULT: 2-1, which means a push. +0 units.

Sunday bet 2

Oostende vs Standard Liege DnB 2 at 1.28 (Bet365)

I see great value in Standard Liege today. The straight bet is priced around 1.60 to 1.65 and I like that a lot. I take the DnB options for a running snowball however. My philosophy in running accumulators (snowballs) is that the most important thing is to survive each round. I cannot see St. Liege losing today.

They have six wins in six league game, scoring twelve goals and conceding none! They have done well in Europe as well.  Today they will play Oostende with only two points so far in the league.

I spend 7.82 (snowballing) units on St. Liege DnB.

RESULT: 2-4 and +2.19 units! 1.32 units (60 % of the win) are cashed out and in tomorrow’s bet 8.69 units will be placed.

The snowball bets so far
The snowball bets so far

UPDATE: Three additional bets without any motivation:

Sunday bet 3

Criciuma – Internacional over 2.5 goals in total @1.952 (Pinnacle Sports). 1 unit (of max 4)

RESULT: 0-1, -1 unit.

Sunday bet 4

Everon de Vina – Universidad de Chile: UdC over 1.5 goals @1.70 (MarathonBet). 1.5 units (of max 4)

RESULT: 2-1, -1.5 units. I watched this game and it was unbelievable that Universidad didn’t score twice. Unfortunately missed chances is common in Chile…

Sunday bet(s) 5

Vitoria BA – Nautico: Home win @1.74 (Pinnacle Sports). 0.5 units

Vitoria BA – Nautico: Vitoria over 1.5 goals @1.90 (MarathonBet). 0.5 units

RESULT: 2-1, +0.82 units.

SnowballOpen 3.0

Two hours to deadline for SnowballOpen 3.0. Please join! The more the merrier.

SnowballOpen Bet 1:

snowballopen_1My first bet is Maribor (-1, Asian) away to Triglav at 1.375 at bet365. Initial wager is 100 SEK. There should be very large differences between the two teams and I believe that 1.375 is a good price for -1. If it wasn’t for the snowball I would consider -1.5 here. Now I stick to the snowball bet.

Bet 1: Maribor -1 @1.375 (bet365). 100 SEK.

 

SnowballOpen Bet 2:

snowballopen_2Maribor only managed a 1-0 win which means a push after day one. Thus, still 100 SEK to place. I continue with an Asian handicap bet at bet365. Paris Saint-Germain have started the season with two draws and really need a win away to newly promoted FC Nantes. I watched parts of PSG’s last game at home to Ajaccio and they should have scored at least three considering the chances they had. I believe that they will score against Nantes instead. I was going to take PSG -0.75 to a slightly higher price earlier, but didn’t have the time then. There is still value though.

I also considered Manchester City against Cardiff City for my snowball, but decided to go for PSG. I take a bet on Man City as well though, I spend two units (of four) on Man City (-1) at 1.763 (Pinnacle Sports).

Bet 2: PSG -0.75 @1.70 (bet365). 100 SEK.

 

SnowballOpen Bet 3:

snowballopen_3I got a half win yesterday and at least this got the snowball rolling. Today I have struggled to find a good bet and decided to take one from Iceland. UMF Stjarnan host ÍA Akranes and looking at the stats this should end with a home win. Pinnacle Sports offers 1.386 for Stjarnan and I believe that this has some value.

Stjarnan are placed third in the Icelandic top division (W9-D4-L2, 24-15 in total and 6-1-1, 15-9 at home) and Akranes sit rock bottom with 2-2-12, 21-40 in total and 0-1-7, 8-20 away from home. Stjarnan have had a rather bad spell recently but won in their last game and have a great opportunity to continue with a win against Akranes.

Bet 3: UMF Stjarnan @1.386 (Pinnacle Sports). 135 SEK.

 

SnowballOpen Bet 4:

UMF Stjarnan managed to win (1-0) but it was hard to follow the game on my livescore since Akranes seemed to create chances and Stjarnan played with ten men the last twenty minutes after former Stabæk striker Veigar Páll Gunnarsson got his second yellow card in the game. I continue SnowballOpen 3.0 by looking for games with rather low odds and take LdB Malmö (women) to beat Linköpings FC for round four.

snowballopen_4Malmö is probably the best team in Damallsvenskan at the moment. They have an impressive run with five wins and one draw in their last six games. They have beaten Sunnanå and Kopparberg/Göteborg twice and Tyresö once (despite being 1-2 down and only ten players on the pitch). The drawn game came against Tyresö. With offensive players like Bachmann, Mittag, Melis, and Sjögran (to mention a few) I cannot see them dropping a point at home to Linköping.

However, be aware that Malmö’s last loss was against Linköping, but that game was played away and Linköpings FC have performed much better at home than away from home. Moreover, Swedish international Nilla Fischer has now leaved the club and joined Wolfsburg in Germany and important goalkeeper Sofia Lundgren is out injured.

At first I planned to wait for the handicap market to open up for this game, but have decided to go for the straight home win. Unibet pays best at the moment and 1.32 is good enough for me.

Bet 4: LdB Malmö @1.32 (Unibet). 182.11 SEK.

 

SnowballOpen Bet 5:

LdB Malmö won very convincingly and I’m still a part of SnowballOpen 3.0! There are only twelve persons left and I am placed at position twelve…

Today I go for a bet with higher odds though since I take a -1.5 handicap bet. It is placed on IFK Norrköping who travel to Vimmerby for a game in the Swedish Cup. Vimmerby play in Divison 2 Södra Svealand and should, under normal circumstances, not have any chances against Norrköping. snowballopen_5Vimmerby started the season very well, but have struggled lately and have lost more games than they have won now (W6-D2-L7, 19-24 in goals). Today Rikard Turesson and Lansana Kamara are doubtful and talented defender Johan Lundin is suspended after being sent off in Vimmerby’s impressive win against Huskvarna in the first round. Niklas Nilsson and Daniel Ek are injured

IFK Norrköping will travel with a strong squad and should be too good if they put enough effort into the game. Manager Janne Andersson says that the game is important and I do not think he will tolerate anything else than a win. I gamble a bit and take the -1.5 bet to catch up a bit with the other contenders in  SnowballOpen 3.0.

Read more about the game on Vimmerby’s home page, on IFK Norrköping’s home page, and in much dept on Svenska Fans.

Bet 5: IFK Norrköping -1.5 @1.72 (MarathonBet). 246.04 SEK.

 

SnowballOpen Bet 6:

Easy win for IFK Norrköping yesterday and I am still alive! Perhaps I should go for a price to catch up even more, but I decided that the most important thing is to survive each day and therefore I go for a bet with high probability (hence low odds).

snowballopen_6Tomorrow there is a big derby in Dublin and I strongly believe that St. Patrick Athletic Football Club should be big favourites against Behemian Football Club and pick St. Patricks -1 @1.50, which I think is a bit too high. I’m too tired to motivate my pick this time, but you can read more about the game on St. Patrick’s and Bohemian’s webpages. Especially observe that Dave Mulcahy is suspended for Bohemians.

Bet 6: St. Patricks -1.0 @1.50 (MarathonBet). 423.19 SEK.

I AM OUT! St. Patricks had 1-0 and a goal disallowed just before Bohemians equaliser (my two opened livescores had 2-0 and later 2-1 for a while…). It was great fun this but I simply took the wrong bet today. Should have taken Helsingborg.

Ljungby and Oskarshamn

Ljungby IF and Oskarshamns AIK top Division 2 Södra Götaland in Sweden and I think they will win again today. Bet365 offers good prices in both games and I’ll go for home victories. I sit in a car the moment and don’t have time to motivate further, but my bets today are:

Ljungby IF – FK Karlskrona: LIF win to 1.50 (Bet365). 2 units (of four)

Oskarshamns AIK – Hässleholms IF: OAIK win to 1.75 (Bet365). 1 unit.

I have also picked Roger Federer in my tennis snowball.

In-play betting: Always look at the Asian handicap prices

Today I watched and live-bet on Denmark – Georgia. I started with 1 unit on Denmark -1 (Asian handicap) after 24 minutes of play since they were much better (without creating that many chances). Denmark lost possession though and suddenly Georgia scored. After a while Denmark took over the game again and I decided to ‘save’ my initial bet with a bet on Denmark to win or draw if and when I got a price with good value.

As always, I had Bet365’s in-play site and Pinnacle Sports’ Asian view site up together with the in-play sites from one or two more bookies. And, as always, the prices on the Asian handicap bets were a lot better than the prices for Denmark to win or draw (or Denmark DnB which I also considered). Bet365’s prices for Denmark -0.5 from the current result (0-1, thus a bet on Denmark to win or draw) were always at least 0.10 higher than the actual bet on Denmark to win or draw. This is almost always the case with in-play betting and also often pre game (see image below for just one example from the games tomorrow).

I waited until 72 minutes when I placed 0.5 units on Denmark -0.5 at Pinnacle. I got 2.25, which was a bit better than Bet365’s price for the exact same bet and much better than Denmark to win or draw at Bet365 (which was an equivalent bet). So, what do we learn from situations like this?

  1. Always have more than one in-play site up when you consider bets during the game.
  2. Always compare your thoughts with the equivalent bet on the Asian handicap market. The prices differ in general and are higher on the Asian handicap market due to lower ‘tax’ (higher payout) than in other markets.

So, how did the game end? Denmark turned things around and got a 2-1 win!

Are you new to Asian handicaps and Asian lines? Take a look at Wikipedia or my explanation for easy to understand explanations. There are also a great deal of books about Asian handicap betting.

straight_bet_vs_asian_handicap
Even pre game the prices for identical bets have different prices! Always look at the Asian handicap price!

Monday bets

I have two bets for Monday at the moment. Might publish more here tomorrow.

Jönköping Södra – Falkenbergs FF: FFF DnB at 2.23 (Pinnacle Sports). 1.5 units of 4

Falkenberg has surprised every pundit and will top Superettan (Swedish second league) together with Örebro if they win here and I think that Falkenberg should be favourites in this game. There are no new injury worries in Falkenberg, but a few players are out long term (among them Zlatan Krizanovics who injured his cruciate ligament recently). Calle Wede is back though!

Jönköping Södra did not manage to score for 430 minutes until former Ljungby IF (my home club) forward Oskar Olsson managed to score in their impressive win away to Hammarby. As far as I know they have no new injuries. Despite their recent win I am sceptical to J Södras form and pick the away team here.

I also considered FFF +0.25 and under 2.5 goals but stick to DnB for now.

oskarolsson
Oskar Olsson after his goal against Hammarby

Millonarios – Alianza Petrolera: Millonarios -0.75 at 1.85 (Bet365). 1u/4u.

This bet is more based on stats, league position and recent form. I haven’t found anything special in the team news, but am a bit uncertain about team changes and stick to one unit for now. Millonarios is a good team at home (W6-D0-L2, where the losses came to top sides) and should win against Petrolera, a team in the lower parts of the table. Millonarios are defending champions in Colombian football. I think that Bet365 pays a bit too high for the home victory (1.62 for the straight bet).

millonarios_supporteres