I was listening to Offside’s podcast the other week. Johan Orrenius and Anders Bengtsson discuss (in Swedish) everything and nothing about football, media, journalism, and sports writing. In this particular episode they started to talk about former Aston Villa, Watford and England man Graham Taylor and the classic documentary An Impossible Job, which is also known as Do I Not Like That.
In the documentary, the England team was followed through the qualification stage for the 1994 World Cup. England failed to qualify and in a big part of the documentary the manager Graham Taylor is portrayed from behind the touchline.
I’m not sure if the documentary is a magnificent piece of work, but it is remarkable that the film-makers could come so extremely close to the England team and Graham Taylor, and it is definitively worth to watch.
The documentary has been hailed as a comic masterpiece and people have used it to make fun of Graham Taylor and they have some right to do so. His comments during the game is amusing and he gave plenty of oneliners. And, perhaps most astonishing, the classic press conference where Taylor completely ran over Rob Shepherd is hilarious (and a bit sad). Watch 62-66 minutes in the full documentary below or hear Shepherd discussing it here. But I do think that it is a bit unfair to make too much fun of Taylor. Despite some ridiculous comments now and then I also think that Graham Taylor shows a lovely and loving side.
(And by the way, the ref was absolutely disgraceful in the Holland game. Ronald Koeman should of course have been sent off. That is so very obvious. Moreover, parts of the Holland wall was only a few metres from the following freekick and when the English wall did the same, they got booked.)
Let us try to get a new football snowball rolling. I take at maximum one game each day and will pick out 40% of the profit after each bet. With this strategy the snowball will not accumulate as quickly as if you accumulate the complete win and only cash out money after a fixed number of bets (or some similar strategy). However, it is more safe in the sense that you will cash out some money each round.
Why do I like the snowball betting strategy? First of all, it is a possible way to have the opportunity to get a large win from a small initial wager. Second, I really enjoy looking for bets that ’should not fail’. Odds value is of course important as always, but – for me – it is most important to survive each round and have fun as long as possibly. When doing snowballs with a strict plan you are way more likely to get some money out of it than doing a accumulator with many bets the very same day. Moreover, when doing accumulators it is very hard to get value in your bet since you need to take bets from the same bookie.
This is a football snowball. It is perhaps a better strategy to mix sports to get the best bet each day, but I restrict to football to narrow down the search for games. I ran a tennis snowball earlier.
Football snowball – day 1
My first bet is St Patrick’s Athletic to beat Drogheda United in the top league in Ireland. St Patrick top the league and I hope and think that they will start a winning streak after their win against Cork City last week. Before that they had a few games without a win but that was against rather tough opponents. Drogheda sit in eighth position in the league after way too many drawn games (10 in 21 games and 6 in 11 away games). Because of the number of drawn games for the away team I play it very safe today and only pick the Asian +0 line (draw no bet, DnB). Bet365 offers the best price (1.17) I’ve found for this bet. The price is perhaps too low for a starting bet, but – for me – the main task in snowball betting is not to lose and have fun as long as possible!
Bet 1: 1 unit on St Patrick’s Athletic DnB at 1.17 (Bet365)
Result: 0-0 => Push. 1 unit to next day.
Football snowball – day 2
Drogheda managed to get 0-0 and another draw, which resulted in a push for my first bet. Thus, still 1 unit to be placed for day 2.
The pick today is taken from Lithuania(!) and is purely based on stats. FK Atlantas host FK Šiauliai and I cannot see the away team go home with any points here. Atlantas is one of the better teams in the league. Šiauliai have six consecutive losses. Their last win was against Tauras Taurage, who only have four points in eighteen games. Many bookies offer 1.40 for an Atlantas win and that is good for me. Let us get our football snowball rolling!
Bet 2: 1 unit on Atlantas to win at 1.40 (Unibet)
Result: 3-0 => +0.40 units. Cash out 0.16 units. 1.24 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.16 units
Football snowball – day 3
Kopparberg/Göteborg FC (women) should be a better team than Piteå and they also defeated Piteå away with 2-0. After a sl0w start of the season Kopparberg got things together before the Euro break and I think they will continue with a win today. Bet365 offers 1.25 and that is good enough for me. Kopparberg HT/FT is also an interesting bet with good price from BetVictor (1.80).
Bet 3: 1.24 units on Kopparberg/Göteborg FC to win at 1.25 (Bet365)
Result: 1-0 => +0.31 units. Cash out 0.12 units. 1.43 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.28 units
Football snowball – day 4
Djurgårdens IF play Helsingborgs IF today. Helsingborg have scored in 38(!) consecutive games in Allsvenskan and I think that they will score again today. MarathonBet offers Asian lines on team goals and I take Helsingborg over 1.0 goals.
Bet 4: 1.43 units on Helsingborg over 1.0 goals (Asian) at 1.32 (MarathonBet)
Result: 2-1 => push. 1.43 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.28 units
Football snowball – day 5
My football snowball does not melt, but it rolls very very slowly. Only a push yesterday since Helsingborg only managed to score once. I am very happy with that though. Djurgården is my team.
Today I go back to Damallsvenskan. The difference between top and bottom is huge in this league and tomorrow LDB FC Malmö, second in the table with 24 points in 11 games (7-3-1) will play Sunnanå SK (0-3-8). The odds for a home win is around 1.03 and of course nothing to bet at. MarathonBet offers HT/FT at 1.24, which I think is good. Malmö should win this easily. Sunnanå struggle to get together a proper team. Read more here.
Bet 5: 1.43 units on Malmö HT/FT at 1.24 (MarathonBet)
Result: 1-0/4-0 => +0.34 units. Cash out 0.14 units. 1.63 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.42 units
Football snowball – day 6
Time to level up with a bet with a slightly higher odds. Örebro SK seem to be the best team in Superettan. Today they face Jönköping Södra and I think that the prices for a home win are too high. The reason for the high prices is probably caused by the game in Jönköping where J. Södra won with 2-0. However, Örebro have 8-0-0 at home and I believe that they will continue winning today. Be aware that they have a newly placed artificial turf and Örebro. See Örebro’s homepage for Youtube interviews with players and coaches.
In Örebro William Atashkadeh is back in the squad. J. Södra have three new players on loan in the squad. Manager Mats Gren says that they might rotate their squad a bit now due to many games in short time.
Bet 6: 1.63 units on Örebro to win at 1.507 (Pinnacle Sports)
Result: 3-1 => +0.83 units. Cash out 0.34 units. 2.12 units to next day.
Total cash out: 0.76 units
Football snowball – day 7
Today I think that VfB Stuttgart should win at home to Botev Plovdiv. The game in Bulgaria finished 1-1 so the Germans really have to go for a win. Let us hope I am right here, my feeling wasn’t good after I placed the bet and perhaps I was too hasty. Some reasons for my bad feeling can be found here. Botev Plovdiv was the better side in Bulgaria. Top goalscorer Vedad Ibisevic is in doubt for Stuttgart. The game is not played in Stuttgart’s usual home ground Merceders-Benz Arena due to a Robbie Williams concert!
Bet 7: 2.12 units on VfB Stuttgart to win at 1.262 (Pinnacle Sports)
Result: 0-0 => meltdown. Extremely bad pick and I should of course have bought me out before the game. The bet did not feel right and in that case it is better to get out as quick as possible.
Total results: Seven bets with four winners and two pushes resulted in a total loss of 0.24 units.
Well, that was the last update of the post. I will come back with new football snowballs shortly.