After Christmas bets

I have had some time off during the Christmas holidays and therefore time to share a few bets. The analysis in Chelsea vs West Ham was a big success and I had quite a few readers on that post. On Twitter I have had weaker results. The over 2.75 bet in Wolves vs Brentford resulted in a half win, but Manchester City -2 (at home to Burnley) resulted in a disaster and over 2.75 in Tottenham – Manchester United could be seen as a fiasco after 0-0. However, United should have scored at least once in the first half, and if that had happened the game would probably opened up.

Well, it is time for a few new betting suggestions from England and Australia! Read and enjoy.

Bet 1: Derby County – Leeds United: Derby -1 at 1.92

Derby County have one of the stronger teams in the Championship and after a very disappointing away loss to tomorrow night’s opponents (in late November, Leeds got 2-0 at home and Derby failed to get a single shot on target). Since then, Derby have managed to get things together again. They have convincing wins at home to Brighton (3-0) and away to Birmingham on Boxing Day (4-0), an unfortunate 2-2 draw against Norwich, and a 2-0 defeat away to top contenders Middlesbrough.

Leeds United, on the other hand, have only managed to obtain one point in the four games after their win against Derby. With all the problems in and around the club I can’t see them get anything out of the game tomorrow night. Brazilian Adryan is believed to return to the starting eleven after been ruled out on boxing day.

I cannot see anything else than an easy home win here and have placed a -1 Asian Handicap bet on Derby. I got 1.92 at MarathonBet, but if you don’t have an account there (or perhaps is limited) I recommend 1.53 for the Derby -0.5 bet at Bet365 and/or 1.86 for a Derby -1 bet at Pinnacle Sports.

Bet 2: Ipswich Town – Charlton Athletic: Ipswich -1 at 2.10

Ipswich Town are doing extremely well at the moment. They sit second in the table and they are the best home team in the league (W8-D2-L1). They have four wins in their last five (including away to Charlton) and come from an impressive 4-2 win away to Brentford and a 2-0 victory at home to Middlesbrough.

Charlton Athletic are not bad. In their last game they got 1-1 at home to Cardiff, despite being one man down for about an hour. Away from home they have drawn six of eleven games (W2-D6-L3), and are hard to beat. However, the Ipswich team is showing a lot of character and I am going for the tough -1 Asian Handicap line. Read a preview here.

I got 2.10 from MarathonBet for the Asian Handicap -1 bet. You can get 1.60 for the straight home win at Bet365 and 2.02 for the -1 line. I believe that this offer some value.

Bet 3: Western Sydney Wanderers – Central Coast Mariners: Sydney -0.75 at 2.27

bet_tomi_juric
Tomi Juric

During the Christmas holidays I have watched some football from Australia. Western Sydney Wanderers have not been able to combine the Asian Champions League (who they surprisingly won!), the FIFA Club World Cup and league football. Now they have time to focus on the league and they really need to start winning games after only three points in ten games. I saw their last loss away to Wellington Phoenix (1-0), and in that game they played well and were extremely unlucky to get nothing out (read and watch highlights here). Now they face a much weaker team and I believe that they will start a winning streak. It could be worthy checking the starting line ups. Star striker Tomi Juric is reported to leave the club, and he is important for Western Sydney.

Central Coast Mariners have eight points in twelve games (W1-D5-L6) and away from home they have four drawn games and two losses in six games. In their last encounter they got a 3-3 draw at home to Brisbane Roar and did not impress defensively. I believe that they hold much less quality than Sydney Wanderers and that the price is too much influenced by Sydney’s awful league stats.

I have taken Sydney -0.75 at 2.27 (Pinnacle Sports). The current price is 2.30 and other bookies offer prices around 2.20-2.25.

Bet 4: West Ham United – West Bromwich Albion: West Ham -0.75 at 2.14

West Ham United are doing extremely well and after two tough games against Chelsea and Arsenal I strongly believe that will get a victory again against a rather weak West Bromwich Albion.

I got 2.14 for the -0.75 Asian Handicap bet (Pinnacle Sports). The current price is 2.11 and I think that prices above 2.05 are worth to take.

bet_west_ham_simpsons

Chelsea – West Ham: Betting with a look at the data

It is time for a rare comeback, a blog post about looking at the data with a betting purpose. The early Boxing Day game is a London derby between two teams that have impressed heavily so far. Chelsea currently top the table and they will face West Ham, who sit nicely in fourth position at the moment.

Chelsea at home

Chelsea FC have won almost everything this season and they look unbeatable, especially at Stamford Bridge. Now they will be tested a bit with a game against high-flying West Ham United. Here are some of the data in Chelsea’s home games so far in the 2014/2015 season of Premier League.

Data from Chelsea’s home games so far in Premier League. Data are taken from liveresultat.se.

Chelsea have eight wins in eight home games and with a goal difference of two in six of them. With only three conceded goals a first guess could be that the opponents didn’t have much of the ball at all and that they haven’t been able to create any chances. This is not completely true. In four games the away teams have managed to create ten or more chances (I think that liveresultat.se mark all shots – on target/off target/blocked – as chances) and in two games the away teams (Arsenal and Tottenham) have had more possession of the ball than Chelsea. What is much more striking is the Shots on target column. The away teams have only had eleven shots on targets in the eight games, making an average of 1.375 shots on target per game! The ‘shoots on taget’-metric is actually used by many football scientists and data bloggers to model and predict football goal scoring results. Take a look at this very interesting blog.

Looking at Chelsea’s data alone a home win looks very possible and the prices are also low for a Chelsea victory. At the moment the bookies pay around 1.33 for the home win and around 2.00 for Chelsea at the -1.5 Asian Handicap line (at the moment Bet365 is best with 2.02).

West Ham away

West Ham have three wins, three drawn games, and two losses away from home so far in the 2014/2015 season. Moreover, they have scored (and conceded) in all eight games.

westham_away_2014_12_26The wins have come against teams that are expected to finish in the lower regions of the table, the drawn games against teams expected to finish mid-table, and the losses against expected top six/seven-teams. Actually, West Ham have had extremely hard to get anything out of away games to elite teams lately. Last season West Ham only managed to beat Tottenham of the seven top clubs. They also got a 0-0 draw away to Chelsea, but according to the stats there seems to have been some luck involved there.

westham_away_2013_2014It is perhaps not fair to use stats from last season for West Ham. They seem to be another team now, but at the same time, the only losses this season have come to Manchester United and Everton. Is West Ham’s decent away record this season mostly thanks to the schedule? Will they start losing now when they will visit better teams?

Prediction: Chelsea and under

Despite West Ham’s fantastic start of the season I see value in Chelsea here. I don’t believe that Chelsea will allow West Ham to create high quality chances. I am a bit scared of the 1-0 and 2-1 victories however and I am taking the lower line, Chelsea -1 (AH) at 1.50.

West Ham’s stats away from home have affected the goal line prices. At the moment, under 3.0 goals (Asian line) can be taken at 1.88 and I take a small one on that. Chelsea have only scored more than three goals in one of the eight home games in Premier League and as long as West Ham doesn’t score, under 3.0 seems to posses value.

It could be a good idea to bet on 2-0 (Bet365 offers 7.50 at the moment and the prices differ between 5.30 and 8.00). I stick to Chelsea -1 and under 3.0 though.

Bet 1: Chelsea -1 at 1.50 (Pinnacle Sports). Medium wager.

Bet 2: Under 3.0 goals at 1.88 (Pinnacle Sports). Small wager.

Let’s hope that John Terry can help us to get 2-0 (or otherwise 1-0 or 3-0) for Chelsea.

 

December snowball – 100 SEK

December is here and it is time for another snowball. I will start with 100 SEK (Swedish krona) and accumulate my first two bets. After that I take out 50% of the win after each bet. All bets will be placed at Pinnacle Sports and most picks will be purely based on statistics.

As usual my main goal is to survive as long as possible and I pick games on a ”cannot miss”-basis (which of course isn’t the case) and most bets will be placed with low odds.

Bet 1 – Sunday 1 Dec – 100 SEK

Bet: Servette Geneve – FC Wohlen: Home win to 1.367.

Result: 1-0. 36.70 win.

I cash out 0.70 (0%) and take 136 SEK to the next bet.

Total cashed out: 0.70 SEK

Bet 2 – Tuesday 3 Dec – 136 SEK

Bet: Gornik Zabrze – Widzew Lodz: over 2.0 goals to 1.377.

Result: 3-2. 51.27 win.

I cash out 0.27 (0%) and take 187 SEK to the next bet.

Bet 3 – Wednesday 4 Dec – 187 SEK

Bet: Arsenal – Hull: Arsenal -1 to 1.377.

Result: 2-0. 70.69 win.

I cash out 35.69 (50%) and take 222 SEK to the next bet.

Bet 4 – Friday 6 Dec – 222 SEK

Bet: Home wins in Galatasaray – Elazigspor & Benfica – Arouca to joint odds 1.43.

Result: Galatasaray 2-0, but Benfica only got 2-2 and the snowball melted way too early.

————

Total result: -64.31 SEK (Swedish kronor)

FC Basel tonight?

FC Basel have a very strong team and have done well in Europe and in the league the last couple of seasons. They have only lost once this season (at home to Zurich) and impressed fc basel - allez allezheavily with a win away to Chelsea in the opening game of the Champions League group stage. For me they should be favourites against an ever underperforming Schalke 04 and when we get 2.07 for Basel +0 (equivalent to draw no bet, DnB) I think we have great value.

There are no big injury worries in Basel. Fabian Schär hurt his knee on Saturday, but trained yesterday and will be tested late tonight. Basel’s coach Murat Yakin says that his attacking players are in great form, but some of them have picked up small knocks and he might rest someone to this game.

Schalke 04 is a big club with great resources but they constantly underperform in the German Bundesliga. They concede far too many goals to be able to compete with the best teams. They have a rather good record in Europe, but to this game I think they should be the underdogs. Their coach Jens Keller also admits that FC Basel should be the favourites in this game.

There are a few important players unavailable for Schalke 04. Star attacking midfielder Julian Draxler was missed out during the weekend but will probably be available. However, Christian Fuchs, Kyriakos Papadopoulos, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, and Chinedu Obasi are all still injured and Jermaine Jones will not be picked.

Both teams usually score in their games and this could end 3-2 or something similar. I add a bet on over 2.75 goals in the game.

Bet 1: FC Basel – Schalke 04: Basel +0 at 2.07 (Pinnacle Sports). 1.5 units (max 4 units per game)

Bet 2: FC Basel – Schalke 04: Over 2.75 goals at 2.09 (Pinnacle Sports). 1 unit.

RESULT: 0-1, -2.5 units…

Bets from Spain

Three games will be played in Primera Division in Spain tonight and I have placed bets in two of them.

Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano

Sevilla have struggled in the opening games of the league.  With two points in five games they are placed bottom in the league. I have seen two of their games and I must say that they have been a bit unlucky, especially against Barcelona where Barca got their winner in the very last seconds of the game. Sevilla should have much more quality than Rayo Vallecano and I believe that they will win tonight.

Rayo Vallecano try to play offensive regardless whom they play. I believe that we will see goals tonight and place an over bet and one bet on a home win.

Bet 1: Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano: Sevilla -1.25 (Asian handicap) @1.847 (Pinnacle Sports). 1.5 units (max four per game).

Bet 2: Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano: Over 3.0 goals (Asian line) @1.847 (Pinnacle Sports). 1 unit.

RESULT: 4-1, +2.12 units

Elche – Real Madrid

Elche did very well last season and qualified to Primera Division after a lot of 1-0 and 2-0 victories. To this season they seem to have weaken the squad and should not have a chance against Real Madrid. Real play an important derby game against Atletico and will probably rest a few players. However, the quality in the squad should be good enough to defeat Elche with a couple of goals. I see value in the prices and place two units on Real Madrid -1.25.

It could be a good strategy to wait for the starting elevens. If Real rest their star players the price for the away win might increase.

Bet 3: Elche – Real Madrid: Real -1.25 (Asian line) @1.719 (Pinnacle Sports). 2 units.

RESULT: 1-2, -1.00 unit.

Good luck if you place bets tonight!

The snowball – Continuation

Weeks ago I started a snowball just for fun. I took in-play bets on Bet365 and got wins every time. After a while, despite the very small initial wager, the snowball became rather big and now (September 22, 2013) I have survived 21 bets! I have written out the bets here, but continue with this new post now to ease the reading. The bets will be filled below, but let us first present the bets so far. Three bookies have been used. I will continue choosing bets from these three.

The status of the snowball before the bet on September 22. The new bets are presented below.
The status of the snowball before the bet on September 22. The new bets are presented below.

After each win I will cash out 60% of the win and add the rest to the ever increasing wager.

Snowball bet 22 – September 22 – Red Bull Salzburg

The snowball is big now and it is hard to place the bet on one bookie. Today I take Red Bull Salzburg. The main bet is placed on Salzburg -1 (Asian), but a smaller part is also placed on the straight win (or rather, the -0.5 bet).

Bet 1: Red Bull Salzburg – Wolfsberger FC: Salzburg -1 @1.26 (MarathonBet). 11.20 units

Bet 2: Red Bull Salzburg – Wolfsberger FC: Salzburg -0.5 @1.18 (Bet365) 4.01 units

Result: 2-2. Salzburg were 2-0 up and totally on top of Wolfsberger but managed to concede twice. Snowball melts…

Total cashed out: 20.99 times the initial wager

A tennis snowball

On June 9, 2013 I started a tennis snowball with one unit as initial wager. Unfortunately the initial wager was small and I need many days to get some good money from it. In the below image all my bets are summarised. Read below the image for the snowballing rules and the details each day!

Tennis snowball
The current status of the tennis snowball

—————————————-

Let’s start a tennis snowball! I will only place bets on Pinnacle Sports this time. If you restrict yourself to one bookie Pinnacle is the one to use since they have the highest payout in general.

The idea is to go as follows. I will place a bet day 1 and continue by accumulating with a new bet in day 2. I will do the same for day 3, but after day 3 I will pick out 40% of the win from the last day. Continue as long as possible.

This time I will only place bets where I am very confident of a win. Therefore the odds on the placed bets will usually be very low and I need a nice run to be able to get some money out of it.

Day 1

Wager: 1 unit.

Bet: G. Dimitrov to win and M. Youzhny to win their respective games to accumulated odds 1.318.

Outcome: Dimitrov wins 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 (phew) & Youzhny wins 6-1, 6-2 (easy). +0.318 units!

Cash out: 0.008 units

Total cash out: 0.008 units

Wager to next day: 1.31 units

Day 2

Bet 1

Wager: 1.31 units.

Bet: Safarova to win against Karatantcheva to odds 1.166.

Outcome: Safarova wins 6-2, 7-6. +0.217 units.

Cash out: 0.007 units

Total cash out: 0.015 units

Wager to next bet: 1.52 units

Bet 2

Multiple bettors with good records have taken Benneteau to beat Mannarino today and since Pinnacle offers a very good price for a Benneteau win I take another bet today with higher price to level up until the cash-out levels.

Wager: 1.52 units.

Bet: Benneteau to win against Mannarino to odds 1.436.

Outcome:  Benneteau wins (7-6, 6-3). +0.633 units.

Cash out: 0.003 units

Total cash out: 0.018 units

Wager to next day: 2.18 units

Day 3

Time for first cash out day if we survive! From today 40% of the profit each day will be cashed out.

I take a parlay with two of the tennis giants at the moment. I think and hope that both Federer and Berdych will win in straight sets today. They are both much better than their opponents and should win easily under normal circumstances. You could always argue that Federer is out of form, but it shouldn’t matter here. Berdych hasn’t played games for a while, but will hopefully be very prepared here.

Wager: 2.18 units.

Bet: Berdych and Federer to win their respective game in straight sets (2-0) to accumulated odds 1.726.

Outcome: Berdych wins 2-0 (6-1, 6-4) & Federer wins 2-0 (6-3, 6-3). +1.583 units.

Cash out: 0.633 units

Total cash out: 0.651 units

Wager to next day: 3.13 units

Day 4

From now on I will be a bit more careful and play a kind of home made handicap bet most days. I will take one game only and bet on a straight favourite win to cover for the wager and use the remaining units to bet on a 2-0 victory for the same favourite. With this strategy I try to keep the wager safe but will hopefully help the snowball to grow a bit faster, compared to take the complete wager on the straight win. Today I go for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has been good recently.

Wager: 3.13 units.

Bet: Tsonga to beat Roger-Vasselin (2.79 units at odds 1.125) and with 2-0 (0.34 units at odds 1.471).

Outcome: Tsonga wins, but with 2-1 (6-3, 6-7, 6-3). +0.009 units.

Cash out: 0.009 units

Total cash out: 0.660 units

Wager to next day: 3.13 units

Day 5

A push yesterday and only 3.13 units to spend today as well. I will mainly consider single games each day from now, but I take a double by placing the complete wager on Federer to beat Mischa Zverev in straight sets and Tsonga to beat Denis Kudla.

Pinnacle offered good prices (1.173  and 1.10) on these two bets but their web site messed with me as usual and the prices decreased significantly during the half an hour I tried to place my bet. However, this snowball is not much about finding value but more about surviving as long as possible, so I place the bet anyway. But: PINNACLE SPORTS, WHY IS YOUR WEB SITE SO SLOW? WHY DO I ALWAYS HAVE PROBLEMS TO GET TO YOUR SITE FOR PARLAYS/ACCUMULATORS? WHY DO I ALWAYS GET THE MESSAGE ‘502 Bad Gateway’?

Wager: 3.13 units.

Bet: Tsonga to win (1.089) and Federer to win with 2-0 (1.148) to accumulated odds 1.250.

Outcome: Tsonga wins (6-3, 6-2) and Federer 2-0 (6-0, 6-0!). +0.783 units.

Cash out: 0.313 units.

Total cash out: 0.972 units

Wager to next day: 3.60 units

Day 6

I cashed out the initial wager now and level up again. T Haas has played good recently, but R Federer has impressed even more and should be big favourite today I think. I go for Federer to win for a small profit and Federer 2-0 for jackpot!

Bet: Federer to win against Haas (3 units at 1.294) and  with 2-0 (0.6 units at 1.775).

Outcome: Federer wins by 2-1 (3-6, 6-3, 6-4). +0.222 units

Cash out: 0.112 units

Total cash out: 1.084 units

Wager to next day: 3.77 units

Day 7

Bet 1: John Isner to beat Evgeny Donskoy (3.4 units at 1.1).

Bet 2: Isner 2-0 & Marcos Baghdatis to beat Carlos Berlocq (0.34 units at accumulated odds 1.677).

Outcome: John Isner lost with 2-1 and the snowball melts down…

Cash out: 0

Total cash out: 1.084 units. Thus the initial wager is paid back.

 

In-play betting: Always look at the Asian handicap prices

Today I watched and live-bet on Denmark – Georgia. I started with 1 unit on Denmark -1 (Asian handicap) after 24 minutes of play since they were much better (without creating that many chances). Denmark lost possession though and suddenly Georgia scored. After a while Denmark took over the game again and I decided to ‘save’ my initial bet with a bet on Denmark to win or draw if and when I got a price with good value.

As always, I had Bet365’s in-play site and Pinnacle Sports’ Asian view site up together with the in-play sites from one or two more bookies. And, as always, the prices on the Asian handicap bets were a lot better than the prices for Denmark to win or draw (or Denmark DnB which I also considered). Bet365’s prices for Denmark -0.5 from the current result (0-1, thus a bet on Denmark to win or draw) were always at least 0.10 higher than the actual bet on Denmark to win or draw. This is almost always the case with in-play betting and also often pre game (see image below for just one example from the games tomorrow).

I waited until 72 minutes when I placed 0.5 units on Denmark -0.5 at Pinnacle. I got 2.25, which was a bit better than Bet365’s price for the exact same bet and much better than Denmark to win or draw at Bet365 (which was an equivalent bet). So, what do we learn from situations like this?

  1. Always have more than one in-play site up when you consider bets during the game.
  2. Always compare your thoughts with the equivalent bet on the Asian handicap market. The prices differ in general and are higher on the Asian handicap market due to lower ‘tax’ (higher payout) than in other markets.

So, how did the game end? Denmark turned things around and got a 2-1 win!

Are you new to Asian handicaps and Asian lines? Take a look at Wikipedia or my explanation for easy to understand explanations. There are also a great deal of books about Asian handicap betting.

straight_bet_vs_asian_handicap
Even pre game the prices for identical bets have different prices! Always look at the Asian handicap price!