Topptipset 2017-12-23 – West Ham överstreckade – Värde i Tottenham och Southampton

Andy Carrols West Ham överstreckade
Andy Carrols West Ham överstreckade

Jag brukar ju lägga ut rader med streck vs sannolikhet för Europatipset och Stryktipset. Idag, när jag har lite extra tid, gör jag detsamma för Topptipset. Tanken är att jag ska göra det varje dag nu under julhelgen, men jag lovar inget… Idag är West Ham överstreckade och Tottenham och Southampton har spelvärde.

Tips 1: Streck vs sannolikhet på Stryktipset för samtliga omgångar 2017.

Tips 2: Beskrivning av hur beräkna utdelning på Stryktipset.

Tips 3: Rättningsmall för Stryktipset plus V75, V86, V64 och V65.

Mina tankar kring dagens Stryktips gäller också för Topptipset:

Två favoriter med spelvärde:

  • Tottenham har 53 procent av strecken, men 62 procents sannolikhet att vinna enligt oddsmarknaden. Värde!
  • Southampton har 56 procent av strecken, men 61 procents sannolikhet att vinna enligt oddsmarknaden.

West Ham överstreckade

West Ham är överstreckade:

  • West Ham har 63 procent av strecken, men bara 46 procents sannolikhet att vinna enligt oddsmarknaden.

I övrigt verkar streckfördelningen vettig i de båda Manchesterlagens matcher samt Stoke – West Brom. Watford och Swansea har lite värde vid direkt jämförelse mellan streck och oddsmarknad.

Topptipset 2017-12-23: West Ham överstreckade. Tottenham och Southampton har spelvärde.

After Christmas bets

I have had some time off during the Christmas holidays and therefore time to share a few bets. The analysis in Chelsea vs West Ham was a big success and I had quite a few readers on that post. On Twitter I have had weaker results. The over 2.75 bet in Wolves vs Brentford resulted in a half win, but Manchester City -2 (at home to Burnley) resulted in a disaster and over 2.75 in Tottenham – Manchester United could be seen as a fiasco after 0-0. However, United should have scored at least once in the first half, and if that had happened the game would probably opened up.

Well, it is time for a few new betting suggestions from England and Australia! Read and enjoy.

Bet 1: Derby County – Leeds United: Derby -1 at 1.92

Derby County have one of the stronger teams in the Championship and after a very disappointing away loss to tomorrow night’s opponents (in late November, Leeds got 2-0 at home and Derby failed to get a single shot on target). Since then, Derby have managed to get things together again. They have convincing wins at home to Brighton (3-0) and away to Birmingham on Boxing Day (4-0), an unfortunate 2-2 draw against Norwich, and a 2-0 defeat away to top contenders Middlesbrough.

Leeds United, on the other hand, have only managed to obtain one point in the four games after their win against Derby. With all the problems in and around the club I can’t see them get anything out of the game tomorrow night. Brazilian Adryan is believed to return to the starting eleven after been ruled out on boxing day.

I cannot see anything else than an easy home win here and have placed a -1 Asian Handicap bet on Derby. I got 1.92 at MarathonBet, but if you don’t have an account there (or perhaps is limited) I recommend 1.53 for the Derby -0.5 bet at Bet365 and/or 1.86 for a Derby -1 bet at Pinnacle Sports.

Bet 2: Ipswich Town – Charlton Athletic: Ipswich -1 at 2.10

Ipswich Town are doing extremely well at the moment. They sit second in the table and they are the best home team in the league (W8-D2-L1). They have four wins in their last five (including away to Charlton) and come from an impressive 4-2 win away to Brentford and a 2-0 victory at home to Middlesbrough.

Charlton Athletic are not bad. In their last game they got 1-1 at home to Cardiff, despite being one man down for about an hour. Away from home they have drawn six of eleven games (W2-D6-L3), and are hard to beat. However, the Ipswich team is showing a lot of character and I am going for the tough -1 Asian Handicap line. Read a preview here.

I got 2.10 from MarathonBet for the Asian Handicap -1 bet. You can get 1.60 for the straight home win at Bet365 and 2.02 for the -1 line. I believe that this offer some value.

Bet 3: Western Sydney Wanderers – Central Coast Mariners: Sydney -0.75 at 2.27

Tomi Juric

During the Christmas holidays I have watched some football from Australia. Western Sydney Wanderers have not been able to combine the Asian Champions League (who they surprisingly won!), the FIFA Club World Cup and league football. Now they have time to focus on the league and they really need to start winning games after only three points in ten games. I saw their last loss away to Wellington Phoenix (1-0), and in that game they played well and were extremely unlucky to get nothing out (read and watch highlights here). Now they face a much weaker team and I believe that they will start a winning streak. It could be worthy checking the starting line ups. Star striker Tomi Juric is reported to leave the club, and he is important for Western Sydney.

Central Coast Mariners have eight points in twelve games (W1-D5-L6) and away from home they have four drawn games and two losses in six games. In their last encounter they got a 3-3 draw at home to Brisbane Roar and did not impress defensively. I believe that they hold much less quality than Sydney Wanderers and that the price is too much influenced by Sydney’s awful league stats.

I have taken Sydney -0.75 at 2.27 (Pinnacle Sports). The current price is 2.30 and other bookies offer prices around 2.20-2.25.

Bet 4: West Ham United – West Bromwich Albion: West Ham -0.75 at 2.14

West Ham United are doing extremely well and after two tough games against Chelsea and Arsenal I strongly believe that will get a victory again against a rather weak West Bromwich Albion.

I got 2.14 for the -0.75 Asian Handicap bet (Pinnacle Sports). The current price is 2.11 and I think that prices above 2.05 are worth to take.


Kerry Dixon: Players I remember #1

In July 1990 Chelsea FC prepared for the new season with a summer camp in Falkenberg, Sweden. I was ten years of age at the time and my father was some kind of organiser during their stay here. My family stayed close to the team and players like Kerry Dixon, Andy Townsend, Graeme Le Saux, and Dennis Wise, who had joined the team from Wimbledon for a club record fee of £1.6 million.

Kerry Dixon was the prolific goal scorer at the club and for me and my younger brother – who actually turned 9 the exact same day as Dixon turned 29, which (if I remember things correctly) was celebrated by the team with a cake for both of them – Dixon was a true hero. Even though I tried to acclaim his striking partner Gordon Durie simply since I got his Gatorade water bottle after a practise (my brother got Dixon’s of course)…

Kerry Dixon was born in Luton in 1961 and was an apprentice at Tottenham Hotspur. After short spells with Chesham United and Dunstable he joined Reading in 1980 and scored 51 league goals in 116 appearances in the third division. Before the 1983-84 season Chelsea’s chairman Ken Bates was willing to pay £150,000 for him but Reading wanted another 25,000 if he ever got two England caps during his stay at Chelsea. Bates needed a night deliberating, but finally decided to meet Reading’s requirements. He was desperate to improve the Chelsea squad after they almost relegated to the third division in the previous season.


That extra £25,000 was well spent. Kerry Dixon’s pace, heading ability, and two good feet made an instant impact and got him two goals in his debut in a 5-0 victory against Derby County. After assistance from hard working strike partner David Speedie and quality crosses from Pat Nevin, Dixon ended with 34 goals in his first season at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea turned things around and were promoted to Division One one year after risking being relegated to Division 3. And equally important, Chelsea had finally found a worthy replacement for Peter Osgood, the 60’s and 70’s icon in number nine.

Kerry Dixon stayed with the Blues for a decade and after some ups and downs, both for Dixon and Chelsea, he moved to Southampton 1992 after getting 193 goals in 440 appearances. That made him Chelsea’s second-highest goalscorer of all time (now moved down to third after Frank Lampard has taken the first spot with 211 goals).

After a bad season with the Saints he moved to his home town club Luton Town FC and actually entered a game together with Chelsea one last time. In a 1994 Wembley FA Cup semi-final Luton faced Chelsea and the Chelsea fans got a final chance to acknowledge a true club legend. At the end of the game “There’s only one Kerry Dixon” was shouted all over Wembley.

After his playing career Kerry Dixon has tried managing and has been involved in Chelsea TV, but sadly risks getting the sack after being arrested on suspicion of dealing cocaine.

I plan to regularly write about my former heroes. For the blog posts so far, see here. Kerry Dixon is the first player I have written about.