Jag brukar ju lägga ut rader med streck vs sannolikhet för Europatipset och Stryktipset. Idag, när jag har lite extra tid, gör jag detsamma för Topptipset. Tanken är att jag ska göra det varje dag nu under julhelgen, men jag lovar inget… Idag är West Ham överstreckade och Tottenham och Southampton har spelvärde.
Mina tankar kring dagens Stryktips gäller också för Topptipset:
Två favoriter med spelvärde:
Tottenham har 53 procent av strecken, men 62 procents sannolikhet att vinna enligt oddsmarknaden. Värde!
Southampton har 56 procent av strecken, men 61 procents sannolikhet att vinna enligt oddsmarknaden.
West Ham överstreckade
West Ham är överstreckade:
West Ham har 63 procent av strecken, men bara 46 procents sannolikhet att vinna enligt oddsmarknaden.
I övrigt verkar streckfördelningen vettig i de båda Manchesterlagens matcher samt Stoke – West Brom. Watford och Swansea har lite värde vid direkt jämförelse mellan streck och oddsmarknad.
I have had some time off during the Christmas holidays and therefore time to share a few bets. The analysis in Chelsea vs West Ham was a big success and I had quite a few readers on that post. On Twitter I have had weaker results. The over 2.75 bet in Wolves vs Brentford resulted in a half win, but Manchester City -2 (at home to Burnley) resulted in a disaster and over 2.75 in Tottenham – Manchester United could be seen as a fiasco after 0-0. However, United should have scored at least once in the first half, and if that had happened the game would probably opened up.
Well, it is time for a few new betting suggestions from England and Australia! Read and enjoy.
Bet 1: Derby County – Leeds United: Derby -1 at 1.92
Derby County have one of the stronger teams in the Championship and after a very disappointing away loss to tomorrow night’s opponents (in late November, Leeds got 2-0 at home and Derby failed to get a single shot on target). Since then, Derby have managed to get things together again. They have convincing wins at home to Brighton (3-0) and away to Birmingham on Boxing Day (4-0), an unfortunate 2-2 draw against Norwich, and a 2-0 defeat away to top contenders Middlesbrough.
Leeds United, on the other hand, have only managed to obtain one point in the four games after their win against Derby. With all the problems in and around the club I can’t see them get anything out of the game tomorrow night. Brazilian Adryan is believed to return to the starting eleven after been ruled out on boxing day.
I cannot see anything else than an easy home win here and have placed a -1 Asian Handicap bet on Derby. I got 1.92 at MarathonBet, but if you don’t have an account there (or perhaps is limited) I recommend 1.53 for the Derby -0.5 bet at Bet365 and/or 1.86 for a Derby -1 bet at Pinnacle Sports.
Bet 2: Ipswich Town – Charlton Athletic: Ipswich -1 at 2.10
Ipswich Town are doing extremely well at the moment. They sit second in the table and they are the best home team in the league (W8-D2-L1). They have four wins in their last five (including away to Charlton) and come from an impressive 4-2 win away to Brentford and a 2-0 victory at home to Middlesbrough.
Charlton Athletic are not bad. In their last game they got 1-1 at home to Cardiff, despite being one man down for about an hour. Away from home they have drawn six of eleven games (W2-D6-L3), and are hard to beat. However, the Ipswich team is showing a lot of character and I am going for the tough -1 Asian Handicap line. Read a preview here.
I got 2.10 from MarathonBet for the Asian Handicap -1 bet. You can get 1.60 for the straight home win at Bet365 and 2.02 for the -1 line. I believe that this offer some value.
Bet 3: Western Sydney Wanderers – Central Coast Mariners: Sydney -0.75 at 2.27
Tomi Juric
During the Christmas holidays I have watched some football from Australia. Western Sydney Wanderers have not been able to combine the Asian Champions League (who they surprisingly won!), the FIFA Club World Cup and league football. Now they have time to focus on the league and they really need to start winning games after only three points in ten games. I saw their last loss away to Wellington Phoenix (1-0), and in that game they played well and were extremely unlucky to get nothing out (read and watch highlights here). Now they face a much weaker team and I believe that they will start a winning streak. It could be worthy checking the starting line ups. Star striker Tomi Juric is reported to leave the club, and he is important for Western Sydney.
Central Coast Mariners have eight points in twelve games (W1-D5-L6) and away from home they have four drawn games and two losses in six games. In their last encounter they got a 3-3 draw at home to Brisbane Roar and did not impress defensively. I believe that they hold much less quality than Sydney Wanderers and that the price is too much influenced by Sydney’s awful league stats.
I have taken Sydney -0.75 at 2.27 (Pinnacle Sports). The current price is 2.30 and other bookies offer prices around 2.20-2.25.
Bet 4: West Ham United – West Bromwich Albion: West Ham -0.75 at 2.14
West Ham United are doing extremely well and after two tough games against Chelsea and Arsenal I strongly believe that will get a victory again against a rather weak West Bromwich Albion.
I got 2.14 for the -0.75 Asian Handicap bet (Pinnacle Sports). The current price is 2.11 and I think that prices above 2.05 are worth to take.
It is time for a rare comeback, a blog post about looking at the data with a betting purpose. The early Boxing Day game is a London derby between two teams that have impressed heavily so far. Chelsea currently top the table and they will face West Ham, who sit nicely in fourth position at the moment.
Chelsea at home
Chelsea FC have won almost everything this season and they look unbeatable, especially at Stamford Bridge. Now they will be tested a bit with a game against high-flying West Ham United. Here are some of the data in Chelsea’s home games so far in the 2014/2015 season of Premier League.
Data from Chelsea’s home games so far in Premier League. Data are taken from liveresultat.se.
Chelsea have eight wins in eight home games and with a goal difference of two in six of them. With only three conceded goals a first guess could be that the opponents didn’t have much of the ball at all and that they haven’t been able to create any chances. This is not completely true. In four games the away teams have managed to create ten or more chances (I think that liveresultat.se mark all shots – on target/off target/blocked – as chances) and in two games the away teams (Arsenal and Tottenham) have had more possession of the ball than Chelsea. What is much more striking is the Shots on target column. The away teams have only had eleven shots on targets in the eight games, making an average of 1.375 shots on target per game! The ’shoots on taget’-metric is actually used by many football scientists and data bloggers to model and predict football goal scoring results. Take a look at this very interesting blog.
Looking at Chelsea’s data alone a home win looks very possible and the prices are also low for a Chelsea victory. At the moment the bookies pay around 1.33 for the home win and around 2.00 for Chelsea at the -1.5 Asian Handicap line (at the moment Bet365 is best with 2.02).
West Ham away
West Ham have three wins, three drawn games, and two losses away from home so far in the 2014/2015 season. Moreover, they have scored (and conceded) in all eight games.
The wins have come against teams that are expected to finish in the lower regions of the table, the drawn games against teams expected to finish mid-table, and the losses against expected top six/seven-teams. Actually, West Ham have had extremely hard to get anything out of away games to elite teams lately. Last season West Ham only managed to beat Tottenham of the seven top clubs. They also got a 0-0 draw away to Chelsea, but according to the stats there seems to have been some luck involved there.
It is perhaps not fair to use stats from last season for West Ham. They seem to be another team now, but at the same time, the only losses this season have come to Manchester United and Everton. Is West Ham’s decent away record this season mostly thanks to the schedule? Will they start losing now when they will visit better teams?
Prediction: Chelsea and under
Despite West Ham’s fantastic start of the season I see value in Chelsea here. I don’t believe that Chelsea will allow West Ham to create high quality chances. I am a bit scared of the 1-0 and 2-1 victories however and I am taking the lower line, Chelsea -1 (AH) at 1.50.
West Ham’s stats away from home have affected the goal line prices. At the moment, under 3.0 goals (Asian line) can be taken at 1.88 and I take a small one on that. Chelsea have only scored more than three goals in one of the eight home games in Premier League and as long as West Ham doesn’t score, under 3.0 seems to posses value.
It could be a good idea to bet on 2-0 (Bet365 offers 7.50 at the moment and the prices differ between 5.30 and 8.00). I stick to Chelsea -1 and under 3.0 though.
Bet 1: Chelsea -1 at 1.50 (Pinnacle Sports). Medium wager.
Bet 2: Under 3.0 goals at 1.88 (Pinnacle Sports). Small wager.
Let’s hope that John Terry can help us to get 2-0 (or otherwise 1-0 or 3-0) for Chelsea.
Fortfarande ont om tid för bloggeriet just nu, men här kommer streckfördelningen och sannolikhetsfördelningen för Stryktipset vecka 51. Sannolikhetsberäkningarna baseras på medeloddsen från flera spelbolag på oddsportal.com. Bäst värde denna vecka tycker jag nog Middlesbrough har.
I bilden nedan finns streckfördelningen samt sannolikheten i respektive match. För att räkna ut sannolikheten för respektive tecken i vald match plockar jag medeloddsen från oddsportal som jag sedan konverterar till sannolikhet, se t.ex. detta inlägg för hur.
Jämför man strikt streckfördelningen med sannolikheter baserade på spelbolagens odds finns det supervärde i Leicester och Brighton. Spontant känns det inte som att jag vill gå emot West Ham dock. Har också spelat West Ham asiatiskt handikapp -0.75 (till 1.85 på Bet365 tidigare i veckan). Denna match blir svår att ta ställning till på Stryktipset…
Allra bäst spelvärde i veckans stryktipsomgång tycker jag nog Middlesbrough har. Ipswich är bra, men Boro är kanske bäst i Championship. Jag ryggade Calle Torn och spelade Middlesbrough +0 (DnB) tidigare i veckan. Det blir tvåa eller x2 för mig här.
Till sist ska man nog ha i åtanke att Manchester United inte spelat särskilt bra på slutet trots att resultaten blivit bättre. Med en annan målvakt hade det aldrig gått. Jag tar nog x2 i match 1, men har inte helt bestämt mig ännu. Skade/avstängningsläget ser dock inte bra ut för Aston Villa. De har Alan Hutton, Tom Cleverley och Kieran Richardson avstängda. Vidare är Marcos Rojo och framförallt Angel Di Maria tydligen skadefria i United och till sist har United väldig plusstatistik på Aston Villa i inbördes möten.
Ravel Morrison is said to be a great talent with a promising future. I haven’t seen him much at all and I cannot judge his abilities.
Sam Allardyce reputation as a manager is perhaps not the best (to say the least), and as a man it is probably even worse. We have all heard how he favours players that have Mark Curtis as their agent (at the moment Curtis either represents or has links with Allardyce, Kevin Nolan, James Tomkins, Jack Collison, Matt Jarvis, Andy Carroll, Jussi Jaaskelainen and Adrian). The connection between Allardyce and high transfer fees for Mark Curtis’ players seems obvious. I have heard about it before, but I haven’t really paid this any attention. Now it might be time to react!
The Guardian reports that Ravel Morrison has been out of favour since he did not want to sign for Mark Curtis. If anything of this can be proven true a lot of people have to take their responsibility and resign! First of all Sam Allardyce. West Ham’s fees to agents have have been high the last couple of seasons. Is there a connection to Sam Allardyce?
Ravel Morrison seems to join QPR on loan. I certainly hope for a great success and that his career will kick off tremendously from now.
More, and published a bit earlier than The Guardian, about the Ravel Morrison/Sam Allardyce/Mark Curtis-story can be found here.
